Billy Donovan Hire Will Truly Be Tested in Playoffs

With the official announcement that the Oklahoma City Thunder have hired Billy Donovan as their head coach, one might think that the time for speculation has finally ended after a tumultuous week.

I think it’s just getting started and it will only increase as the season winds on.

Donovan, by all accounts, is an excellent coach and a solid person. Numerous members of the coaching community have lauded the hire during its rumor-phase and Donovan’s dedication and values were always mentioned among his many positives.

But the argument could be made that Scott Brooks, the former Thunder head coach, had those same qualities. So why make the change at all?

It’s all about the postseason, where Donovan will be truly tested as the team’s new coach.

The exact motives for general manager Sam Presti are unknown; he’s largely considered a genius but to say that he’s secretive might be the understatement of the decade. Presti has his own vision for the team, one tied to Oklahoma City’s success, but he keeps that close to the vest. You can assume that Donovan was brought on board because Presti believes he can guide this team to the level that Brooks could not.

There’s also the possibility that hire was made in preparation for the worst-case scenario, one in which Kevin Durant leaves the team in 2016, and Donovan was brought on board to guide the team through a disastrous transition period.

Still, that’s over a year away and, for now, Donovan has to adjust to life in the NBA after nearly two decades coaching at the University of Florida.

Unfortunately, those adjustments won’t be easily seen when next season begins. Training camp will be time of compliments and pleasantries, when the bloom is still on the rose. Everything smells sweet when there are no games actually being played and every team, no matter how unrealistically, has a chance to win the title.

As the regular season begins, you can expect things to get a little testier – Donovan will face scrutiny at a much higher level than he’s used to. While many will look to the Celtics’ Brad Stevens as a similar model, the truth is that Stevens wasn’t expected to succeed immediately. That he managed to lead a team of lower-rung players into this year’s postseason during his second year as an NBA coach makes for a nice story but Donovan will be judged immediately.

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Even then, the strength of his roster – a sharp contrast from what Stevens had to work with in Boston – will hide some of Donovan’s faults. This Oklahoma City team will win during the regular season. Should the team be fully healthy (a dangerous caveat, to be sure), you can expect the trio of Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka to carry the team to numerous victories. A deeper roster that includes Enes Kanter and Steven Adams, will definitely make this team the best it’s ever been.

And while any regular season success will be definitely appreciated by Thunder fans, much of that will be due to a talented roster already in place. Donovan’s best chance at personally succeeding will be to use the 82-game schedule to learn the nuances of his team, what works best and how to maximize individual strengths for the good of the team.

When the playoffs begin (assuming the Thunder qualify in a treacherous Western Conference), that’s when the true test of Donovan begins. Will he have learned how to sit players and to prepare for the long haul? Who will be in or out of the postseason rotation? Will key moments late in games be dictated by isolation-heavy offense sets, much like they were for Brooks? Can he adjust in the midst of a seven-game series against a veteran-laden team and more experienced coach?

These are the questions that Donovan never had to answer when was the king of the NCAA hill, just a mere pile of sand compared to the rigors of the NBA. If reports were true that Donovan was finally ready to make the leap to the “big leagues” after his long tenure at Florida, you hope that a man as seemingly well-prepared as he is would know what he’s getting into.

It’s a difficult situation and one that won’t play itself out until Donovan faces his first real test as the leader of a playoff team.

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