Game Day Preview, Thunder @ Rockets: Westbrook vs Harden show down

This seasons top MVP candidates square off as Westbrook’s Thunder meet Harden’s Rockets.

Perhaps no two playoff seeded teams fooled preseason pundits quite as much as the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets. Case in point, preseason it was expected the Thunder may have difficulty retaining a playoff seed. The Rockets were summarily written off as a seven or eight seed.

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The Nemesis:

Let’s not kid ourselves, everyone tuning in are inspired to see the Russell Westbrook versus James Harden match up. To date, the jaw dropping, historic stat setting  prowess of these two guards has propelled them into the top two MVP candidate positions.

as seen on NBA TV

In review of individual player stat leaders the two former teammates rank atop the Association in copious categories.  Westbrook leads the league in scoring,  is averaging a triple-double, and has the most triple-doubles on the season. Harden leads the league in assists,  is averaging close to a triple-double, and  is second in triple-double performances.

Having met twice this season on OKC’s home court the teams have split season series with 2 games remaining in Houston.  Especially notable is how the Thunder have held Harden in check, specifically in terms of scoring.

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While the Thunder will hope to replicate that effort, it’s highly unlikely they can lock him down 3 games in a row. Where the Thunder could find an advantage is by letting Harden score more but shutting down his teammates. To accomplish that, the Thunder will need an all out defensive effort via superior perimeter and transition defense including man to man defense to shut down Harden’s passing lanes.

Aside from the preseason pundit projections and All-Star, MVP candidates the teams differ vastly.

Schedule:

Although both teams are presently playoff seeded at sixth (OKC) and third (Houston), there may still be significant shifts in those placements. OKC Thunder embark on the most heinous schedule of the New Year, playing 12 of their 15 January games on the road.

After 2 consecutive losses, OKC need to rediscover their winning ways, especially if they don’t want their January narrative to be about constant road losses. Notably, the 2 recent road loses came against  plus .500 teams.

This fact is disconcerting given eight of OKC’s remaining 13 games are also versus teams with records over .500, with 7 of those 8 games on the road.  Prior to the back-to-back losses the Thunder boasted a winning road record and could pull back even with a victory tonight.

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Breaking Down Rockets win – loss record:

Alternatively, at 13-6 (68.4%), the Rockets boast a top 3 road record in the Association.

Dig into the Rockets win-loss record and you’ll find some telling information which might point to the Rockets wins being somewhat diluted by their opponent wins.

• only 3 of their 9 road wins are to teams with records above .500
• of those, one required double overtime (Warriors) and the other 2 were won by 3 points (Spurs/Thunder)
• only 6 of their 27 wins came versus teams with records over .500 (the 3 above) plus the Jazz, Celtics (won by a single point) and Clippers (missing Chris Paul and Blake Griffin)
• 12 of their 27 victories were against basement dwellers
• the remaining 9 wins were against teams with 15 or 16 wins and many of those wins occurred while those teams were struggling like the Pelicans, Pistons and one of the two victories over the Wizards

Bottom line the early praise of the Rockets may be unwarranted given their diluted schedule. In fact, only the victory over the Jazz can be considered a commanding victory since it was by more than 3 points, didn’t require overtime, and had the majority of opposing core players dressed.  Sure, Houston could continue to impress, but lets see how they fare against the upper echelon. Of the Rockets remaining 46 games, 24 are versus teams .500 or higher.

RELATED STORY: Thunder must close games better

Offensive Style:

While the Thunder have their issues from deep, the Rockets conversely are the NBA purveyors of perimeter strategy.

OKC rank 29th in three-point field goal percent (32.8%) whereas Houston rank 5th (37.8%). Yet, the true delineation between the teams lies in attempts and makes. Houston take (39.6) and make (15.0)  the most threes per game. The Thunder rank 17th in attempts (25.7) and 23rd in made threes (8.4).

Demonstrating how the two teams offensive strategies differ I dove into advanced statistics on nba.com:

As per the above chart, clearly the Rockets offense stems from their perimeter scoring whereas the Thunder utilize a more balanced approach with points in the paint carrying far more weight.

Keys to Win:

Be aggressive from the tip: The Rockets have been off since Monday, so are well rested awaiting the Thunder who played last night in Charlotte. One way to offset the Rockets would be to attack them aggressively from the tip.

Attack the paint: Houston have registered reasonable paint scoring and performed decently in terms of paint/rim protection to this point in the season.  However, much of that was dictated by Clint Capela being able to replace the exiting Dwight Howard.

Prior to his injury, Capela was posting  career best numbers which had many pundits citing him as a most improved candidate.  Furthermore, Capela was by far the teams best front court defender. Nene and Harrell were providing solid reserve support, but having to carry the full front court load is opening the door for regression, specifically in terms of defending the paint.

Examination of the above chart showcases the Thunder having a true benefit in the paint. Without Capela that edge increases, so the Thunder should look to capitalize with their depth up front, particularly utilizing the Westbrook – Adams pick and roll and via Kanter off the bench.

Defense wins the day: Facts are facts, the Thunder have held Harden in check comparative to his league-wide performances.  Even the loss was close, winnable game lost by 3 points. But, if OKC want to end their 2-game losing streak it will have to come off their defensive effort.

Bottom Line:

Perhaps the odds makers know something we don’t, but making Houston 8.5 favorites seems excessive even with the home court advantage and rested legs.

Certainly if the game could live up to the hype of the two guards it would be exciting, but ask any Thunder fan (or Westbrook for that matter), and odds are they just want the victory.

Watch for someone other than the 2 stars to be the x-factor in the victory. It could come from Houston’s bench who has Eric Gordon playing out of his mind or maybe Ryan Anderson will stop catching flies on defense for a rare 2-way effort.  For the Thunder that x-factor could be one of their front court players such as  Adams or Kanter.

More likely the performance of the teams’ shooting guards will determine the victor with Oladipo likely spitting duty with Roberson guarding Harden and Beverley utilizing all his best punk moves on Westbrook. Though Gordon has been spectacular, I wonder if Oladipo is the player who will cause the Rockets fits.

Fasten your seat belts, this one could get bumpy!

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Rotations:

Oklahoma City Thunder Starters:

Point Guard:  Russell Westbrook
Shooting Guard:  Victor Oladipo
Small Forward:  Andre Roberson
Power Forward: Domantas Sabonis
Center:  Steven Adams

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Oklahoma City Thunder Bench:

Point Guard: Semaj Christon
Shooting Guard: Alex Abrines,  Anthony Morrow,
Small Forward: Jerami Grant, Kyle Singler,
Power Forward: Nick Collison, 
Center: Enes Kanter,  Joffrey Lauvergne

RELATED CONTENT:  Victor Oladipo’s injury has oddly helped out the Thunder

Injuries:

• For the first time this season the Thunder are fully healthy. Cameron Payne however is not with the varsity squad as he continues to rehab with the Thunder D-League Affiliate. The projected return date for Payne with the main club is January 7th.

Image reference: NBA.

Full stats available via nba.com/thunder

Houston Rockets Starters:

Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Patrick Beverley
Small Forward: Trevor Ariza:
Power Forward:Ryan Anderson:
Center: *Nene Hilario or Montrezl Harrell

Houston Rockets Bench:

Point Guard: Eric Gordon,  Tyler Ennis, Bobby Brown
Shooting Guard: Corey Brewer, K.J. McDaniels,
Small Forward: Sam Dekker
Power Forward:  Kyle Wiltjer
Center:Chinanu Onuaku

Injuries:

Clint Capela: suffered a small fracture in his left fibula which will keep him out until the end of January at a minimum. The Rockets have utilized Nene or Harrell as starters depending on the matchup.

Patrick Beverley:

has been cleared to play tonight

Image reference: NBA.

Full stats available via nba.com/rockets

Game Specifics:

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• 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
• Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

Recent History: Merging games played as the Seattle Super Sonics/Thunder the minor edge is with OKC 107-104.

Counting just the Thunder vs Rockets it’s Houston who hold the slight edge 17-14. Over the past 6 games the teams have split with each winning 3 games.

The Venue: Toyota Center, Houston TX

The Tip: 8:00 PM EST (7:00 PM CT)

TV: FS Oklahoma HD

National TV: TNT

Radio: WWLS 98.1FM OKC / 930AM (ESP)

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