The general consensus around the NBA is that Ray Allen will sign with Miami. “Barring a change, he’ll join the Heat,” said a league source.

— Alex Kennedy (@AlexKennedyNBA) June 27, 2012

Allen, whose about to turn 37, would take less money to sign in Miami. The Heat would likely offer Allen the $3.09 million taxpayer mid-level exception for next year which would put the Heat further into the luxury tax.

Allen averaged the least amount of points in a season this year since his rookie season at 14.2 per game. Allen did shoot a career-high .453 percent from three this season despite missing 20 games in the regular season due to injury.

Allen struggled in the playoffs though averaging 10.7 points per game and shooting just .304 percent from three.

Allen was coming off the bench for Boston in the playoffs and would likely do the same in Miami. Allen underwent right ankle surgery on June 13 to have bone spurs removed.

The Boston Celtics and Danny Ainge are still optimistic that Allen may stay.

“Yeah, I think Ray’s open to coming back,” Ainge told ESPN Boston. “But, listen, I don’t know. I won’t even get into details with talking to players other than the exit interviews and Ray was getting rehab here, and we’ve talked. So I have a feel of where his head is, but I’ll know more in July.”

Allen is one of a few big names rumored to possibly be targeted by Miami this offseason. Steve Nash and Jason Terry are two others.

Nash has said that money is still a factor with who he signs with this offseason. Miami would only be able to offer him around $3 million while Nash may be able to get closer to $10 million other places.

Nash also said that signing somewhere to take less money is great to try and win a championship but that it’s not that easy to win a title and only takes one injury to hold you back.

Allen would probably be the best fit for Miami of any of these possible free agents. You can imagine a closing lineup of LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Battier and Allen being pretty tough to deal with.

In the NBA Finals we all witnessed just how many opportunities 3-point shooters can have playing with LeBron. The Heat even tied an NBA Finals record with 14 made threes in their clinching Game 5 win versus the Thunder.

Mike Miller led the way in that game with seven made threes but there is a chance he will retire because of an ailing back this offseason, making the push to go after Allen even more important for Miami.

A potential signing of Allen in Miami would be a perfect fit for the Heat and a great move but it wouldn’t swing the balance of power too drastically in their favor.

Just look at how effective Miami’s shooters were in the Finals this year. Allen is a great shooter and would help them replicate that kind of performance in a series but what Miami did in the Finals was the best case scenario for them. They wouldn’t be guaranteed to match that again even with Allen.

Miami prides themselves on defense too. Allen has certainly taken a step back in that department in the last few years. Shane Battier and Mario Chalmers’ contributions on defense were just as valuable as what they did as spot-up shooters.

It will definitely be a huge signing for the Heat either way if they get Allen. It’s the kind of move that you would expect from Miami if they are going to repeat as champions.

Coming into the NBA Finals, the Thunder were favored to win a rightfully so. They had home court and were playing the better basketball in the playoffs.

But things change in the NBA Finals. They always do. Some players rise to the occasion and some wilt.

Things changed for both the Thunder and the Heat in this series. Here’s a look at some of those changes:

Isolation plays

The Thunder were the best isolation team in the NBA this season and they carried that over into the playoffs. OKC’s isolation-heavy offense was always one of the knocks against them but it didn’t matter until now.

The Heat are the best defense the Thunder have faced so far in the playoffs and it is most evident in the isolation numbers. The Thunder are being forced into more isolation plays in this series and they have become less efficient.

The same can be said for Miami’s offense although their drop in efficiency isn’t as drastic.

Kevin Durant and James Harden have significantly become less efficient in isolation plays in this series.

Durant has been isolating more often which really isn’t a good idea and it has played right into Miami’s hands. Harden’s isolations are usually not planned and come after switches but he has been unable to take advantage of that in this series.

Dwyane Wade is the only player to have improved in this department in the Finals. Wade has come through with some big shots in the past few games in the fourth quarter on iso plays.

The pick-and-roll

The Thunder relied on their pick-and-roll game more than anything else and anyone else before this series. Miami’s defense has limited these opportunities in the Finals.

The Thunder are getting much fewer scoring opportunities in the pick-and-roll in this series and reverting to more isolation. This has happened because Miami has focused on taking the ball out of the pick-and-roll ball handler’s hands and forcing the Thunder to their second and third options.

The Thunder are actually more efficient scoring in the pick-and-roll in this series. If we see OKC come out and get looks within the pick-and-roll, it will really improve their chances at extending this series.

Miami has been largely the same with their pick-and-roll game. Oklahoma City isn’t the best in the league at defending it and it has really cost them in this series.

We see that Durant and Westbrook have been great when they get looks in the pick-and-roll, mainly Durant. The Thunder need to go to their Durant-Westbrook pick-and-roll more in Game 5 instead of simply isolating Durant so much.

Harden has really struggled in this department. He isn’t creating as many assists in the pick-and-roll or scoring. This was a huge weapon for the Thunder all season and suddenly not having it in this series has made it extremely difficult for them to win.

Once again, we see Wade has improved in this series in the pick-and-roll game. Wade hasn’t been extremely effective in this series but taking a closer look it is clear that he is coming through in some important situations for Miami.

In the post

Both teams have posted up slightly more in this series. The Thunder still rarely do it and haven’t been too effective when they have.

The Heat were scoring in the post before this series but the Thunder have actually contained them pretty well in this series.

The Heat have scored a lot from offensive rebounds and cuts in the paint in this series which isn’t represented in this chart.

There has been a lot of attention surrounding LeBron James’ improved post game in the Finals and in this season in general but as you can see, he’s still not dominant there.

In Game 4, the Thunder went to double LeBron a lot while he was in the post and he made them pay by finding open shooters for threes. The Thunder really don’t need to do that as much however much they feel the need to.

One thing that changed as this series went on is Durant guarding LeBron less. Scott Brooks took Durant off LeBron at the start of Game 4 to avoid foul trouble and LeBron responded by taking the smaller defenders into the post.

Durant may need to guard LeBron more in Game 5 for the Thunder to extend this series. A lot of the fouls Durant picked up came in transition and on bad decisions to reach. In one-on-one situations in the post, Durant has been fine defending LeBron.

Amazingly, Wade has not scored on a post-up all series.

Spot-up shooting

You guessed it, the Heat have been better than OKC in this department. The Heat really improved in this series at hitting spot-up shots while the Thunder got worse.

This has certainly been one of the X-factors and if the Thunder are to come back, having an advantage here will be crucial.

Shane Battier is literally off the charts this series as a spot-up shooter and it’s no surprise to anyone. He scored 17 points in each of the first two games and helped change this series in Miami’s favor.

Durant has also been fantastic as a spot-up shooter and always is. But Harden’s drop off from “off the charts” to completely ineffective has also hurt the Thunder.

Harden who makes a living from being an efficient player, has been so inefficient in this series in every way. If there’s one thing that needs to change in Game 5, it’s him having a big game for the Thunder.

Conclusion

The Heat are up 3-1 in this series but every game has been very close. The consensus is that the Heat have shown more poise down the stretch and come up big when they have needed to.

The Heat have effectively taken the Thunder out of their comfort zones on offense and exploited their weaknesses on defense.

Give Erik Spoelstra a ton of credit this series. Using Battier in the starting lineup and attacking Durant as a helper on defense has really been big for the Heat.

The Thunder can still win this series though and at least take it back to OKC. If they can find offense earlier in the shot clock and on their first options, they will be in good shape.

But if Game 5 looks like the last few with a little too much isolation for OKC and them not getting the looks they want, we could be talking about LeBron winning his first title tomorrow.

The Miami Heat have won the last three games of this series after the Thunder took Game 1. They haven’t blown OKC out in any of those games they’ve just shown more poise down the stretch.

The Thunder finally avoided a slow start in Game 4 and actually jumped out to a pretty nice lead themselves, going up 33-16 in the first quarter.

The Thunder know what they need to fix and it’s just a matter of executing it and staying alive to get back home for Game 6.

Let’s start with…

Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Kevin Durant – 30.3 PPG, 2.0 APG, 4.8 RPG, .550 FG%, .370 3PT%, .821 FT%

Kevin Durant was amazing in the first two games of this series, especially in the fourth quarters. But since the series has shifted to Miami, he really hasn’t played that well at all by his standards.

Durant is still scoring 26.5 points per game in Miami and shooting efficiently but the rest of his game is suffering. His rebounding is way down and his defense in general has been suspect.

Playing with a sense of desperation in Game 5 should hopefully cure these things for Durant. It’s really just a matter of being locked in and focused and flying all over the court. Durant has been caught in no man’s land just watching too often on defense.

Perhaps it has to do with how hard he has had to work just to get the ball. Miami is mostly fronting Durant and he isn’t strong enough to make that an easy catch. This has been going on for two games now and it has really hurt the Thunder offense so it will be interesting to see if they can adjust.

Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

LeBron James – 29.3 PPG, 6.0 APG, 10.0 RPG, .472 FG%, .231 3PT%, .811 FT%

LeBron had one of his best games in Game 4 against the Thunder. He dominated the game from the low block, picking apart the Thunder defense on kick outs.

LeBron’s greatest strength in recent years has been reading the situation and taking what’s given. The Thunder defense did not defend him well in the post and LeBron made them pay with 26 points and 12 assists.

LeBron then capped off the night by hitting a huge three despite battling cramps and the Heat escaped with the win.

Other than that LeBron wasn’t too dominant. His jump shot hasn’t been deadly in this series and even when he shoots in the post it is worse than it feels.

LeBron didn’t play much of a distributor in the first three games of this series but he became that in Game 4 when Miami needed him too. Letting LeBron play that role and get the role players involved is not a good idea for the Thunder.

The Thunder do not need to double him too much in the post and need to be more concerned with taking away the spot-up shooters.

Durant barely guarded LeBron in Game 4 to avoid any potential foul trouble. If Durant was able to match up with him in the post, the Thunder could play him more straight up. If Game 5 is close and Durant isn’t in foul trouble, we’ll see if Scott Brooks puts him on LeBron in the fourth.

Mike Ehrmann/Pool Photo via US PRESSWIRE

Russell Westbrook – 29.0 PPG, 6.8 APG, 7.0 RPG, .480 FG%, .176 3PT%, .810 FT%

Russell Westbrook is coming off the game of his life in Game 4 scoring 43 points on 20-of-32 shooting.

Westbrook was completely unstoppable as his jump shot was falling as well as his shots at the rim when he attacked at will.

The Thunder probably won’t get 43 points from him again in this series but for the first time he didn’t start the game off missing his first three shots which was a great sign.

Westbrook will now not receive any criticism for his play. He showed in Game 4 he has nights where he is better than Durant and while the Thunder didn’t win, they very easily could have.

Westbrook’s confidence has to be at an all-time high even for him now and that should lead to him becoming a playmaker and opening up even more offense for the Thunder which they desperately need.

Larry W. Smith/Pool Photo via US PRESSWIRE

Dwyane Wade – 23.3 PPG, 5.8 APG, 5.5 RPG, .413 FG%, .400 3PT%, .806 FT%

The Thunder have continued to do a good enough job on Dwyane Wade in this series. Wade did not kill the Thunder as a passer in Game 4 like he did in Game 3 but he still made some big shots.

The Thunder have to live with what Wade has been doing. The one area he has been hurting them lately is getting to the free throw line. Wade attempted 20 free throws in the last two games which is a number the Thunder can cut down.

Whenever Wade finds space, he hurts you. Westbrook has done a good job using his athleticism to guard Wade and he should see him some more in Game 5 too.

Wade is simply not the biggest concern for the Thunder right now.

James Harden – 10.8 PPG, 3.3 APG, 5.0 RPG, .351 FG%, .286 3PT%, .722 FT%

James Harden has still yet to play like himself in the Finals and that’s probably the biggest reason why the Thunder find themselves down 3-1.

If Harden is able to get it going just a little, it could be enough for the Thunder to win. His numbers are far below his normal averages all across the board.

We knew Miami would defend him the best of anyone in the playoffs but it is also in Harden’s head now why he’s not producing.

All it will take is a couple of drives to the basket where he gets fouled or finishes strong and that could get the momentum going for him.

If he doesn’t get his act together though, it’s hard to imagine the Thunder coming back in this series.

Larry W. Smith/Pool Photo via US PRESSWIRE

Chris Bosh – 12.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG, .396 FG%, .250 3PT%, .833 FT%

Chris Bosh isn’t hurting the Thunder in the ways you would have expected in this series. He’s not scoring very much or doing a ton on offense to make things difficult for OKC.

Bosh is hurting the Thunder with his effort, energy and ability to get to those 50-50 balls. Who would have known?

Bosh’s ability to affect the series that way speaks more to the Thunder’s not matching Miami’s intensity in these last few games.

If you don’t notice Bosh in Game 5, the Thunder will win. If he’s a factor, this series might be over.

The Bigs

The play of the bigs for OKC was much less of an issue in Game 4 than the previous two. The Thunder avoided a slow start with their starting lineup and even got some nice production from Nick Collison when he checked in the first quarter.

The Thunder still have yet to really abuse Miami with their big men. They only got eight offensive rebounds in Game 4 and it feels like they need to be closer to 15 to really take advantage of this mismatch.

Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka combined for just eight points and 10 rebounds in Game 4. They’ve had games this postseason where they’ve both been terrific and the Thunder may need that kind of performance to extend this series.

Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

Spot-up shooters

Shane Battier is no long the sniper he was in Oklahoma City but in Game 4 it was Chalmers who stepped up scoring 25 points.

Miami made 10 threes in the game thanks a lot to LeBron’s work in the post drawing doubles and kicking.

The Heat got too many open looks in the game for the Thunder to be comfortable with their defense and if they are hitting them again in Game 5, things will be very difficult for the Thunder.

The Thunder went just 3-for-16 from three in Game 4. Derek Fisher didn’t attempt any threes and Thabo Sefolosha went 1-for-3.

The Thunder are going to need someone other than Durant and Westbrook to step up in Game 5 if they are going to take this series back to Oklahoma City. Hitting some more threes would be nice.

Prediction

The Thunder have their backs against the wall as much as possible now. They’ve been here before though down two games in a series and responded by winning the next four games against the best team in basketball.

The Thunder know they just need to get this series back to Oklahoma City and they will have a great chance to win it. Game 5 will be their best effort of the season, it has to be.

If the Thunder play their best, there will be nothing the Heat can do to stop them too. It’s all up to them.

They haven’t lost four games in a row all season and I don’t think they start now. This series is still going seven. If they win Game 5, they’re not losing Game 6 and then in a Game 7, anything can happen.

This team doesn’t get down on themselves and they know they can beat this team. They’ve taken the next step so many times this season and it’s no time to take another step and win Game 5 in Miami.

The series promises to be a close one. The Thunder are the deeper, more talented team but the Heat have more experience and they have LeBron James.

Regular season meetings

The Thunder and Heat met twice in the regular season with each team winning once.

The Thunder won 103-87 on March 25 at home. Kevin Durant outplayed LeBron and had a stat line of 28-8-9 while LeBron went just 17-7-3. The Thunder shot nearly 53 percent from the field, had 26 assists and forced Miami to turn the ball over 21 times.

Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins both played great with Ibaka having 19 and 10 and Perkins 16 and six.

James Harden was also a force efficiently going 6-for-7 from the field for 19 points and six assists.

In the second meeting, Miami won at home 98-93. LeBron got the better of Durant this time with a 34-10-7 stat line while Durant was 30-3-4 and had nine turnovers. Miami shot just 37.3 percent from the field in the game but went 26-for-29 at the line, made 10 threes and committed just 13 turnovers to OKC’s 18.

Ibaka and Perkins combined for just six points in the game and Harden was quiet with 12.

Russell Westbrook went 9-for-26 from the field in the game and had 28 points.

Isolation plays

Oklahoma City 11.63% of offense, 0.97 PPP
Durant 1.16, Westbrook 0.84, Harden 1.14

The Thunder are the best isolation team in the NBA because of these three players. The Heat are the best defense the Thunder have seen so far in the playoffs so scoring in this way will get harder.

Westbrook has the biggest advantage as Mario Chalmers will be matched up with him a lot and he needs to take advantage. Durant will have LeBron on him a lot so over-isolating isn’t a good idea. Harden is the wild card here as Battier played him well in the regular season but if he can break out in this series it will be huge for OKC.

Miami 13.17% of offense, 0.78 PPP
LeBron 0.88, Wade 0.71

LeBron and Wade aren’t going to have an easy time isolating against the Thunder because the Thunder will play them straight up. If the ball stops moving for the Heat, they will play right into the Thunder’s hands.

Isolations are inevitable though and if LeBron and Wade are pulling up for jumpers, that will be just what Oklahoma City wants. If they are driving and getting to the line it will be better for the Heat.

Pick-and-roll

Oklahoma City 27.91% of offense, 0.87 PPP
Durant 0.97, Westbrook 0.91, Harden 0.77, Ibaka 0.96

The Thunder’s bread and butter is their pick-and-roll game. It is really important for Westbrook to be doing well in this area, scoring himself and also getting others involved, especially Ibaka for his midrange jump shot.

It will be very hard against Miami’s defense for Durant to be efficient in the pick-and-roll. He needs to make sure he limits his turnovers and makes good passes.

Harden is the beast in the pick-and-roll and once he finds out how to attack in it, it’s over for the defense. It took him awhile in the San Antonio series to figure it out and the Thunder will need him to be effective quickly in this series given the 2-3-2 format.

Miami 20.89% of offense, 0.94 PPP
LeBron 1.04, Wade 0.85, Bosh 1.28, Chalmers 0.79

The Heat also run a lot of pick-and-rolls and now with Bosh back, they should get better at it. Bosh helps spread the floor for LeBron and Wade to attack in the pick-and-roll and when he is hitting his jumper makes it really hard on the defense.

The Thunder need to defend the pick-and-roll to do everything to keep LeBron and Wade out of the lane and live with jump shot results.

Spot-up shooting

Oklahoma City 15.75% of offense, 1.09 PPP
Durant 1.18, Westbrook 1.08, Harden 1.60, Sefolosha 0.95, Fisher 1.09, Ibaka 1.03

The Thunder don’t get as many spot-up looks as you would think but the opportunities are there, Durant and Westbrook just need to do a better job of finding the open men.

The Thunder have really improved their ball movement in the playoffs resulting in more assists and more open shots. Durant is the best on the catch and shoot but Harden has been on fire in the playoffs.

The more spot-up shots the Thunder can get, the better.

Miami 21.78% of offense, 0.95 PPP
LeBron 0.69, Wade 1.06, Bosh 1.07, Miller 1.02, Battier 1.00, Chalmers 1.05

The Heat can hurt you with spot-up shooters and that’s where their role players really come into play. Shane Battier and Mike Miller will play big roles in this series not only on defense but whether or not they can make open 3-pointers.

LeBron is the best at finding open shooters so if OKC falls asleep on defense, he will make them pay. LeBron isn’t a very good spot-up shooter himself though so when the ball is swung to him, the Thunder defense shouldn’t rush out on him too hard and rather invite the spot-up jumper instead of giving him a chance to drive.

Post-ups

Oklahoma City 4.77% of offense, 0.70 PPP
Durant 0.81

The Thunder barely ever post-up unless you count when Durant does it at the top of the key. Durant can sometimes have an advantage doing so because he is so tall but that won’t be the case with LeBron guarding him.

Durant may be able to find times to do this when LeBron is off him but the fact remains that the Thunder simply don’t post-up much.

Miami 8.11%, 0.92 PPP
LeBron 0.94, Wade 0.90, Bosh 0.88

All you heard at the beginning of this season was how LeBron and Wade were posting up more. It was true and they improved at it but not too drastically.

It could play a huge role in this series though especially with Wade. Wade will have an advantage over Harden or Westbrook in the post and even Sefolosha. This could be a way that Wade gets his offense going.

LeBron probably won’t post-up as much with Durant on him, who plays him well down low. This is a great thing for the Thunder but they will need to be ready for LeBron to look to distribute out of the post and not fall asleep on defense.

In conclusion

The offenses have been better than the defenses for both teams. The team that plays the best defense should win this series though. And the team that turns the ball over the least and scores on the break will be in a good position to win as well.

The Thunder will probably come out of the gates in Game 1 really excited and may not be executing their best. The Heat will need to take advantage of this and get out to a lead and to try and steal this first game and steal home court.

1. Is OKC-MIA the best possible NBA Finals matchup this season?

Blake Potash (@FreeBigMacs): Is it the most exciting? Definitely. Best? Maybe not. Personally I would’ve loved to see a Chicago-OKC finals matchup, but with Rose out that wasn’t possible. The Heat and Thunder have two of the most unstoppable offenses in recent memory, and these games should be full of high-flying, fast-paced action.

Cody Brees (@CodyBrees): As far as entertainment, it is by far the best matchup. I am sure the NBA would have loved for a bigger market to be in the final, but the talent and pace of this series should make up for that.

Paul Brookshier (@LCredentials): Yes. This was the popular matchup pick heading into the season, and many got their wish. With the top two MVP vote getters going head to head and stars like D. Wade, Westbrook, and Harden, this has the potential to be a series for the ages. Great players, exciting story lines, what’s not to love?

2. Does Kevin Durant have to outplay LeBron James for OKC to win this series?

BP: No. It will be pretty hard to outplay the best player in the league, but if Durant manages to, the Thunder should win. The Thunder have plenty of other weapons that can carry the Thunder to victory if Durant isn’t playing lights out.

CB: Not at all. If Durant played LeBron to a stalemate the Thunder will win this series easily. Thunder have the far better role players, and as long as they step up should take a lot of pressure off Durant.

PB: No, I think the excellence of these two superstars will cancel each other out. KD will get his and the same goes for LeBron. It’ll come down to which supporting cast can play more consistently throughout the series.

3. How important is it that OKC has homecourt advantage?

BP: Fairly important. I expect the series to reach a 2-2 tie, so that means the Thunder would either have an elimination game or a closeout game at home. Oklahoma City is home to one of the best crowds in the NBA, which would help, especially in a close series/game.

CB: I would say it’s an advantage, but not a significant one. On one side it is very hard to play three straight games in Miami, but if they go back to OKC, it will be very tough to win a closeout game in OKC. It will be an advantage, but you still don’t want to come back to OKC down 2-3.

PB: When two teams are this evenly matched, and a game 6 and 7 being pretty much inevitable, I think it’s very important that the Thunder get to go back home to the always-wild Chesapeake Arena for those last two games. You’d have to imagine the noise level at the ‘Peake being in complete frenzy mode with the stakes reaching an all-time high for this franchise (in OKC at least). The Thunder still have not lost at home this postseason.

4. What is the Thunder’s greatest advantage against the Heat in this series?

BP: I’m tempted to say the bench, but against a much better defense and a younger core, Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison won’t be leading the team in scoring. Both teams have relatively no front court offense and awesome wing play. So the only thing I can come up with is the home court.

CB: There is much less pressure on the Thunder. No one expected this assent to greatness this quick. All the pressure is still on LeBron. Along with that the role players for OKC have a great opportunity to help this team. We saw it against the Spurs and I expect we will see the same in this series.

PB: Russell Westbrook vs. Mario Chalmers. This is a matchup that Westbrook needs to flat-out dominate for OKC to have a chance. Chalmers did a poor job containing Rajon Rondo last series, and Russ is twice the scoring threat that Rondo is. I expect to see stretches where Dwyane Wade is switched onto Westbrook, as he was able to do a pretty good job on Rondo whenever that switch was made last series. Asking D-Wade to guard Westbrook would surely affect Wade’s impact on the offensive end though (just ask Tony Parker). I know we’re not supposed to bring up the regular season when discussing the playoffs, but Russ was a combined 15-42 shooting in the two regular season matchups between these teams. He’ll need to play much better than that for OKC to have a chance.

5. What kind of production does OKC need to get from Westbrook and Harden to win?

BP: James Harden is the key to this series. The Heat are going to have trouble finding a way to guard both him and Westbrook in the fourth quarter, without leaving Durant free to score at will. The way these playoffs have been going, Harden will be the featured ball handler in the clutch and it looks like most of these games will be close. I don’t want to give specific numbers on what they need to do to win, because I have no clue what the pace of the games will be. Shooting 50/40/90 would be a good start.

CB: Westbrook needs to, and will torch Chalmers. This is important to not only get some easy buckets, but sooner or later they will have to put Wade on Westbrook. This will take away from his late game offense helping the Thunder on both sides of the ball. From Harden all you need him to be is consistent. He still lacks the consistency to be a all-star. He needs to have one or two big games in Miami to win this series.

PB: As the case with Westbrook, Harden will have to have a HUGE series and exploit the Heat’s weak 2nd unit. I hope to see the Thunder continue to put these two on the floor together for long stretches, which will force the Heat to guard Westbrook or Harden with Chalmers. As I stated earlier, Chalmers doesn’t possesses the defensive chops to guard either of them for an entire series. With a defensive team as talented as Miami, Russ will need to continue to keep the turnovers down and limit Miami’s fast break opportunities.

6. Is there any chance Chris Bosh has a good series?

BP: Absolutely, especially with this matchup. The Thunder are going to have trouble guarding Bosh if he keeps up his recent hot streak from outside. Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison should split time guarding Bosh. Collison has been one of the best defenders for OKC so far, which has been huge. I don’t expect a completely healthy Bosh, but he will definitely be the best post player on the floor.

CB: Yes. Bosh will give the Thunder the most problems. His pick and pop with LeBron or Wade is deadly. If the Thunder focus on not letting LeBron and Wade to get to the paint like I am expecting, that will leave room in the mid range for Bosh to make his living.

PB: While I’m not exactly predicting huge individual games from Bosh, I expect his presence to have a positive impact for Miami. With his ability to stretch the floor, it will force Ibaka to have to come out from under the basket, which will negate his shot-blocking abilities. I would like to see more Collison/Ibaka in the frontcourt than Perkins/Ibaka in this series, as Collison has the ability to step out and guard Bosh, or even go small with a Russ-Harden-Thabo-KD-Ibaka lineup. I fully expect to see some non-traditional lineups in this series from both teams.

7. What is your prediction?

BP: Thunder in 7. I have no clue what is going to happen in this series, except that we are going to have plenty of highlights. The starpower is insane, and it will be one of the most exciting finals I’ve watched.

CB: Thunder in 7. And you know the rule, if you pick someone to win in seven you are basically just guessing.

PB: Thunder in 6. While both team’s big 3 are fairly evenly matched, the supporting cast in OKC is far superior to that of the Heat. This along with how well the Thunder have been playing in the post season overall and the fact that they have home court advantage (think Miami is regretting tanking that final game against Washington?), I just don’t see how the Heat pull it off.

The Thunder and the Heat are the matchup the fans wanted. They are the two most talented teams each with one of the two most talented players in the league.

There are a ton of matchups to look at in this series and ton of important factors that will affect who wins.

Let’s start with…

Kevin Jairaj-US PRESSWIRE

Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant and LeBron James are the headline of this series. They are the two best players in the NBA and will be matched up for most of the series. It’s not all about which one is better though.

LeBron is better overall than Durant but Durant has the potential to outplay LeBron on any given night. And on those nights, the Thunder should win.

In the regular season, that’s exactly what happened. Durant outplayed LeBron in the first meeting and the Thunder won 103-87 at home then LeBron outplayed Durant the next time in Miami and the Heat won 98-93.

Durant’s first challenge will be scoring efficiently with LeBron guarding him. LeBron has essentially turned into the best defensive player in the NBA whose strength and power could bother Durant.

Durant needs to not be hesitant on his catch-and-shoot opportunities which should be plenty with the way Miami plays defense. Durant is the best in the league at those kinds of shots and taking them usually helps him find his rhythm.

Durant can get in trouble with LeBron on him when he tries to drive. LeBron will be physical with him and Durant isn’t going to get a ton of calls with LeBron on him. Durant commits most of his turnovers on drives and when he does against Miami, it will quickly turn into points at the other end.

Durant will need to continue with his improved passing especially in the pick-and-roll. Miami is going to hedge hard and double on the pick-and-roll ball handler and it will be crucial for Durant to make the smart pass when that happens and he doesn’t have an opportunity to look for his shot.

On defense, Durant has his work cut out for him…

Robert Mayer-US PRESSWIRE

LeBron James

LeBron won his third MVP this season and has been playing the best basketball of his life of late. He averaged 33.6 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.9 assists while shooting .527 percent from the field in the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston.

LeBron is going to need numbers close to that for Miami to beat the Thunder but it won’t be as easy for him. Durant is an underrated defender when it comes to matching up with LeBron. He can bother him with his length and doesn’t have to play as close on him.

The goal for the Thunder will be to make LeBron a jump shooter. They will play him straight up too which will make it harder for LeBron to have his big assist nights which usually come when he sees a lot of doubles.

If LeBron gets out on the break a ton and gets easy baskets that way, it will spell trouble for the Thunder. All easy baskets for LeBron need to be limited by Oklahoma City for them to win. Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison know this and will be fouling hard every chance they get when LeBron is open inside.

For Miami to beat the Thunder, LeBron has to put him a stat line close to 32-10-6. Anything less and the Thunder should have the advantage.

LeBron does everything for this Heat team and while that is impressive, it will be harder for him to do so in the Finals when he is matched up with Durant. So much of LeBron’s energy will be spent on stopping Durant or scoring on Durant that it could make his overall impact less.

Kevin Jairaj-US PRESSWIRE

Russell Westbrook

The Thunder were able to beat the Spurs in six games with Westbrook not being the scorer he was all season long. Westbrook averaged 23.6 points per game in the regular season but just 18.2 in the Western Conference Finals. Westbrook did become more of a point guard against the Spurs averaging 7.3 assists per game.

With Mario Chalmers matched up with him, Westbrook will have to assume more of a scorer’s mentality against the Heat. He is at his best aggressively looking for his midrange pull-up jump shot and he should be able to get that shot a lot when Chalmers is on him.

If Westbrook can start hitting that shot, it will open up the rest of his game and likely force Dwyane Wade to start covering him. Wade did a nice job on Westbrook in the regular season but if he has to expend energy on defense, it will take away from his offensive production.

Turnovers are still probably the biggest concern with Westbrook though. While he has improved in this department, he is still capable of big turnover games when he becomes frustrated. Miami is the wrong team to do that against so staying under control and taking good, calculated shots will be extremely important for Westbrook.

Robert Mayer-US PRESSWIRE

Dwyane Wade

While LeBron has been on a tear this season and in the playoffs, Wade has had a drop in his production. Wade averaged 21.4 points per game in the Boston series and shot just .444 percent from the field.

Oklahoma City has a much better cast of defenders to throw at Wade than Boston did. Things will become more difficult for him and if he has a bad series, Miami may have no chance.

There is a lot of talk surrounding the LeBron-Durant matchup but it’s really Wade vs. Westbrook that may be more important. If Westbrook has better numbers than Wade, can you really imagine the Heat winning the series?

Wade has improved his post game this season and that’s where he could really hurt the Thunder. If Westbrook or James Harden is forced to try and handle Wade in the post, it will be really tough on the entire Thunder defense.

Mark D. Smith-US PRESSWIRE

James Harden

The Beard has taken the next step toward stardom as the Thunder have been taking the next steps toward becoming a champion. Harden has increased his output in the playoffs too and has not shied away from the big moment when OKC has called on him.

Harden is always important for the Thunder and their second unit and that won’t change in this series. In the regular season, Shane Battier often guarded Harden and did a very good job on him, reading his moves and anticipating passes and getting deflections. If Battier draws the assignment of Harden, expect things to be difficult for him.

Harden should be able to figure it out though and the further this series goes on, the better he will get. That’s what we saw against the Spurs. Harden attempted zero free throws in Game 1 of that series then figured out their defense, adjusted and started getting back to the line.

One area where Harden can struggle is on defense. We saw him have his troubles against Kobe Bryant two series ago and in crunch time, he may have to guard Wade some. Wade can hurt Harden with his back to the basket in a similar way that Kobe did and that may be a tough thing for the Thunder to overcome at times.

Robert Mayer-US PRESSWIRE

Chris Bosh

Bosh got injured in Game 1 of Miami’s series with Indiana and didn’t return until Game 5 against Boston. He played great in the final two games of that series and was a big reason as to why the Heat won.

If Bosh isn’t 100 percent, the Heat will have a near impossible time beating the Thunder in the Finals. Bosh needs to be hitting his spot-up jumpers which will pull Serge Ibaka away from protecting the paint and he also needs to be active on the boards.

Bosh is also going to be the Heat’s last line of defense a lot of times as Miami will play small a lot in this series. If Bosh is unable to make it hard on Durant, Westbrook and Harden to attack the rim, Miami will be in trouble.

The Bigs

The Thunder have a big advantage against Miami in how physical their big men are. Perkins and Ibaka will look to bang and crash the glass at will against a slim Miami frontline. If they can help the Thunder produce double-digit offensive rebound games, it will be a big advantage for the Thunder.

Ibaka and Perkins will also have a lot of opportunities to score like they did in Game 4 against the Spurs. Miami will want to take the ball out of the hands of the pick-and-roll ball handler which will open up lanes for Ibaka and Perkins. If they are active and look to score they could play a huge factor in the series.

Kevin Jairaj-US PRESSWIRE

Spot-up shooters

The spot-up shooters from both teams could swing a game or two in this series. Miami relies on spot-up shooting much more than Oklahoma City and will definitely have to hit their open threes to win games.

The Thunder are very used to defending spot-up shooting after playing six games against the Spurs so they should be able to do a decent job against Miami in this department.

Derek Fisher is the X-factor in terms of a spot-up shooter for the Thunder. We know Scott Brooks will play him crunch time minutes and the opportunities will be there for him to hit big shots, which he’s done before.

Prediction

This series is going to be a close one. Both teams are very good with stars on the roster and neither should get blown out in any way.

Home court advantage will be huge for the Thunder. It is hard to imagine them losing a game at home but with the Finals and its 2-3-2 format, there will be a lot of pressure for the Thunder to win both of the first two games.

Miami could be drained from the Boston series but the Thunder have never been to the Finals before so we might see some overexcitement from them early on in Game 1. You don’t want to get behind the Heat because they are the best team in the NBA at playing with a lead, although the Thunder can come back on anyone behind their home crowd.

I think the Thunder win the first two at home then Miami comes back to tie the series 2-2. I think the Thunder pull out Game 5 on the road then Miami hands Oklahoma City their first home loss of the playoffs in Game 6.

That will set up the ever epic Game 7 in Oklahoma City.

My money’s on the Thunder.