NBA Draft prospect Marvin Bagley III appears destined for a top three selection, but could he push to the top of the ladder?
The top of the NBA draft board hasn’t produced a definitive leader. Certainly there are arguments for DeAndre Ayton and Luka Doncic to take the top spot. Especially these two prospects since they have ties to the Suns, who’ll pick first. However, Marvin Bagley III could sneak in and surprise.
Granted it’s a long shot, but still his production at Duke speaks to his talent. The comparisons for Bagley range from a player who could become a top five NBA talent to a complimentary piece with great energy who paired with the right core could help to move a franchise in the right direction.
The key regarding Bagley will be in determining which position he plays, whether he can stretch his range consistently and if his energy will translate into becoming a solid defender.
Player Specifics:
Age: 19.1,
Height: 6-11
Weight: 235lbs
Wingspan: 7′ 05″
Position: Power Forward
Age: 19 years, 2 months
College: Duke, Freshman
Home Town: Tempe. Arizona
Stat-line (per game):
| Season | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | 33 | 33.8 | 8.2 | 13.3 | .614 | .647 | .397 | .627 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 21.0 |
Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 6/5/2018.
Next up, TI dives into the specifics of Bagley’s game with a look at where he excels and areas needing improvement.
Skills:
Some schools naturally have a reputation for producing solid prospects. Others while successful are so talent laden questions naturally arise. Was the prospect held back based on not being afforded the opportunity to do more. Or conversely were limitations hidden.
In the case of Bagley it might be a little bit of both. First of all, Duke tends to nurture their prospects, increasing their fundamental skills. With Bagley his natural gifts leap off the page. The big man can score without needing plays run for him and has demonstrated the ability to hit from distance (albeit in a small sample). The one concern about the perimeter prowess (shot 39.7% on 23 of 58 attempts) is his free throw shooting is fairly low (62.7%) which tends to be a better indicator for shooting ability.
Due to his high motor and athleticism he is in constant motion. These gifts translate into above average rebounding skills, quick responses to defending either the perimeter, lateral movement or blocking shots. How this will translate playing versus speed and size is unknown.
Yet, perhaps Bagley’s greatest attribute is marrying these natural gifts with commitment. Possessing a no quit attitude has served the big man well and will be welcomed by the team who lands him.
The trick will be teaching Bagley to utilize both his skillset and energy with a view to harnessing focus.
Weaknesses:
Despite having the right defensive attitude in terms of his desire, his body will be an issue especially initially. In particular when he reaches the NBA facing players with larger bodies and greater strength is going to be an issue. This doesn’t mean he won’t eventually be able to handle players of this ilk.
Every pundit will cite Bagley’s shooting stroke whether it’s in terms of being unreliable, his mechanics or ability to stretch the floor. This might not be an issue depending on what position he plays. If Bagley takes the role of center spreading the floor is less of an issue. However, if he plays power forward then his shot becomes a greater factor.
Like most young lottery prospects Bagley has dominated at every level he’s played at. Some suggest his abilities haven’t been tested. The concern however may be how much he’s relied on his physical prowess over his fundamental skills. The take on this borders between those who believe he’ll be much better given more leeway and those who feel the absence of fundamentals will be exposed in the pros.
Current rankings:
Note, rankings are updated on day of writing, and are subject to change.
- DraftExpress/ESPN: 3rd
- NBA DraftNet: 2nd
- CBS Sports: 2nd
- Sports Illustrated: 4th
- Bleacher Report: 4th
- Basketball Insiders: 4th
- The Ringer Kevin O’Connor: 4th
Honors and awards:
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Consensus first-team All-American (2018)
NCAA Tournament All-Region (2018)
Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year (2018)
Pro Comparison:
The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor suggests comparison to Amar’e Stoudemire, a slim Zach Randolph, or Michael Beasley.
That’s a heck of a range and notably none of these players have perimeter range. I like the DraftNet comparison to Chris Bosh, particularly based on Bagley’s size and potential. If he develops consistent range and learns to utilize his right hand it will make him a much more dangerous player to guard.
Fit:
For those salivating over the prospect of having a player with Bagley’s potential and comparisons to Chris Bosh unfortunately it’s a moot point to consider the youngster. Bagley may be shuffling up and down the down the board, but he never falls beyond fourth.
Barring a complete blow up of the squad, he won’t be available to Sam Presti. Nor should Presti want to go all in on Bagley.
Next: Jaren Jackson Jr, The quintessential modern big
For as much as he could end up being Chris Bosh 2.0 – like the former Raptors/Heat big man he’s best suited as a complimentary piece not the focus of a franchise.