OKC Thunder: Pros and cons of league seeding and group bracket formats

The NBA is considering a myriad of options for completing the season with non-traditional scenarios far from ideal for the OKC Thunder.

With momentum swinging toward a return OKC Thunder and NBA action fans are eager to learn the details. Every hour it seems there are new reports of how that return might be formatted with every option affecting each club in varying degrees.

This week the league talked to General Managers on Thursday and will hold a Board of Governor’s meeting today. These shareholders will provide input and votes on various options. This timeline would fall in line with the purposed June 1st date Adam Silver earmarked to get out an updated plan to teams. It’s likely after these calls the league will nail down definitive plans on the return and the format the league will employ to finish the season and playoffs.

A key decision for Adam Silver will be whether the league will play games when it resumes action and how many games will be played. Notably, the teams outside the playoff seeds are keen for a play-in tournament, but an equally compelling argument exists for the seeded teams who have an opportunity to move up or down.

The priority will be for the association to give as much time as possible for players to get in shape as well as get in enough games for players to re-gain chemistry and get into game shape with a view to slowly building player’s minutes in order to lessen injuries.

Although the association stated they were looking at a few venues including Vegas and Houston the site most likely to be used as the ‘campus bubble setting’ is Walt Disney World in Orlando, Florida.

How different formats affect the OKC Thunder:

As noted in our recent article a key stakeholder in determining the return template are GMs who provided preferences via a survey. The specific areas they were asked to address were how many teams should participate, if there should be regular-season games (and how many) and playoff semantics.

The latter is the most intriguing of the questions since a play-in tournament is back on the table for consideration. Likewise, the fact the venue won’t require teams to travel also has the revamping of playoff seeds (by league not conferences) being revisited.

As for the OKC Thunder, the choices made on these matters could have a large impact on precisely how deep the team’s playoff run might be. Overall, the non-traditional options won’t be favorable for the club.

With that let’s dive into the particulars and including the pros and cons for each option and how each shift would impact the Thunder.

Pros and cons of group bracket for OKC Thunder:

One format option gaining traction and hype around NBA circles is the potential for a group bracket round-robin tournament. It’s been referred to as the “soccer-style group play” but it’s also very similar to what FIBA does in the World Championships.

Adam Silver has long wanted to put something of this nature into play. The fear is the Commissioner will ignore what the league brain trust and owners want simply because he wants to take this opportunity to test out this format.

There are clear disadvantages for Eastern clubs who could end up in a group with all Western teams. Many teams including the Thunder would prefer to face the team they were aligned with prior to the suspension.

Notably, the four brackets of five teams would play each team twice with the top two teams moving forward. Since the Thunder fall in tier three that already puts them at a disadvantage.

The GMs voted on it with only 25 percent in favor and those votes likely came from non-seeded teams. As per Kevin O’Connor of the Ringer the elite clubs were not in favor of this format preferring a play-in tournament.

As per Steve Fenn’s tweet above the tiers are listed based on where they currently rank league-wide:

Tier One: Bucks, Lakers, Raptors, Clippers

Tier Two: Celtics, Nuggets, Jazz, Heat

Tier Three: OKC Thunder, Rockets, Pacers, 76ers

Tier Four: Mavericks, Grizzlies, Nets, Magic

Tier Five: Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs

The uncertainty about the group brackets is who lands where and how the league would determine it.  If it’s generated arbitrarily there is the chance for a death group to emerge while another bracket could feature one elite club and four of the easier opponents.

If the tiers were decided simply based on current league seeding it also wouldn’t be ideal for the Clippers who would end up with the hardest opponent from each tier.

Pros:

It’s hard to find anything positive about this option for the OKC Thunder who have a much better chance of advancing to the second round if they play the Jazz or Rockets.

Even with this format, there is further clarification required as the brackets could be based on league seeding or a draft could occur. Neither option would be ideal for the Thunder since they reside in the third tier with the Rockets, 76ers, and Pacers.

While some teams might say they fear any of that trio it’s likely the Thunder are the club the tier one teams (Bucks, Lakers, Raptors, and Clippers) would least likely want to play.

So, the only pro would be if the brackets were generated arbitrarily and OKC landed in the same bracket as the Jazz and also avoided the Mavericks.

Cons:

The cons are many in this format since only the top two teams from each bracket advance. The concerns of landing in a group of death should be avoided via a draft. Yet, even in a draft, the Thunder would likely face much stiffer competition unless as noted above the Jazz landed in their bracket.

Plus this format would require every team to play the equivalent of a first-round that ran eight games since everyone plays each other twice. Consider if the Thunder had played the Jazz instead with the potential to advance via a short series.

Also, if the NBA uses this format, it would likely mean no other games would be played so even if they Thunder advanced the next round would be determined by league seeding. That means no additional games would be played meaning OKC wouldn’t be able to move up the ladder prior to the round-robin. Again, as of the suspension, the Thunder were on the precipice of moving past the Jazz into fourth, already owned the tiebreak versus the Rockets, and were only 2.5 games back of third.

The other potential con for the Thunder is if there are no games played prior it removes their option of purposely falling to 11th in order to retain their own draft pick.

This group round-robin is the worst possible option for the Thunder. Feedback suggests this is the least desirable format of the stakeholders (GMs, owners, and players from the 16 seeded teams). But, unfortunately, the decision lies with Adam Silver and the worry is he’ll do what he wants with every indication being this is precisely the type of creative concept he’s been dying to test.

Pros and cons of league seeding for OKC Thunder::

One option the NBA is considering is to seed playoff teams by their league rank versus the conference rank. The placement could potentially change if the return included regular-season games, however, as of present-day the following outlines first-round matchups. Notably, three pairings are the same as conference rank which is indicated by (same).

(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (16) Orlando Magic (same)
(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (15) Brooklyn Nets
(3) Toronto Raptors vs. (14) Memphis Grizzlies
(4) LA Clippers vs. (13) Dallas Mavericks (same)
(5) Boston Celtics vs. (12) Philadelphia 76ers (same)
(6) Denver Nuggets vs. (11) Indiana Pacers
(7) Utah Jazz vs (10) Houston Rockets
(8) Miami Heat vs. (9)  OKC Thunder

Pros:

An obvious pro of this format would be avoiding the LA teams in the second round. While that’s a big plus it would mean having to face the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round.

In terms of specific matchups in the present state, the Thunder would face the Miami Heat in round one and the Bucks in round two. OKC possesses the fifth-best perimeter defense and since both these teams utilize the 3-ball predominantly in their offense it could bode well for the Thunder.

The Clippers are the worst matchup for the Thunder so getting away from them as long as possible is ideal. And while the Bucks have the best regular-season record the Thunder matchup well to them with an ability to limit Giannis Antetokounmpo and the perimeter.

Depending on games being played that count toward the season record there is an opportunity to move up. This is an important factor since the Thunder could move up potentially as high as sixth. And, while this should improve the first-round matchup again, the likelihood would be a second-round series versus the defending champion Raptors.

Ultimately, it’s a matter of whether the club would want an easier first-round matchup and to avoid the LA teams versus the Eastern powerhouses.

Cons:

As a precursor, again it’s important to note the likelihood of more regular-season games occurring and that factor shifting the seeding.  However, entering the season suspension the OKC Thunder were aligned to play the Utah Jazz. This was about the best scenario they could ask for. Now that Bojan Bogdanovic is out for the season it’s an even more compelling first-round opponent.

The next likely pairing featured the Houston Rockets – yet another ideal pairing since the Thunder have the size to counter the small ball line up, strong perimeter defenders and the defensive ability to slow Houston’s transition. Not to mention the extra inspiration Chris Paul would have in beating the team who deemed him tradeable.

With this shift, the opponent would be the Miami Heat. Although the Heat is young and hasn’t demonstrated road prowess they are the worst pairing of those three teams. And defeating the Heat would mean a date with the best team in the NBA – the Bucks.

Matchups are key:

Ultimately, it all comes down to matchups and the teams who possess deeper squads and potent offenses should be the greatest concern for the Thunder. More specifically, clubs who can adapt offensively are ones to avoid which is why the Bucks aren’t as scary as the Raptors for OKC.

More from Thunderous Intentions

• Stealing one player from every Southwest Division team for the OKC Thunder
• Should the OKC Thunder chase after a disgruntled hometown hero?
• 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
• Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

Additionally, clubs with strong two-way ability are also squads the Thunder will want to avoid as long as possible and why the Jazz and Rockets are the preferred first-round opponents.

The Clippers are the team OKC should want to avoid altogether or as long as possible with the Raptors and Lakers closely behind. It might seem odd to suggest the Raptors are more concerning than the Bucks especially since the Bucks lambasted the Thunder in late February.

That loss occurred on the second night of a back-to-back. And, the other key is the Raptors are extremely versatile and dealt with injuries all season. They’ll return with a fully healthy roster along with a bunch of youngsters who gained experience and lived up to expectations in the process.

Moving forward, it seems likely the Commissioner is intent on doing something creative. For OKC Thunder fans let’s hope he is satisfied with a play-in tournament to determine the final seeds and keeps the conference seeding. I’m not confident that will be the case, but let’s remain hopeful it is.