How high can OKC Thunder climb in Western Conference standings in eight games?
Now that the NBA has a plan in place to resume the season the OKC Thunder can dial up their preparation for July 31st. The NBA Board of Governors voted 29-1 to approve the 22 team format and the National Basketball Players Association added their stamp with the caveat minor tweaks will be necessary.
In terms of preparation for the return, most Thunder players either stayed in OKC or have returned already. They are working out at the Thunder Ion in small groups and will ramp up efforts as the team builds toward a June 30th training camp.
Details on if teams can start adding coaches remain unknown but with other leagues allowing coaches back presumably, that will be the next step in the process.
OKC Thunder could vault up standings in Orlando:
As of the season suspension, the Thunder sat on the fifth rung in the West a single game back of the Jazz. Knowing there will be eight games to play to finish the season the big question facing the OKC Thunder is how high they can climb up the standings.
A full view of the West finds the Los Angeles Lakers seeded atop the conference with no reason to believe they can be caught. LeBron James and cohorts hold a 5.5 game lead over their nearest opponents the LA Clippers and are out of reach of the Thunder who trail them by 9.5 games.
The most compelling group features the second through sixth seeds who have the greatest potential to shift order in the final eight games of the regular season. These five squads are separated by four games with four of the teams within 2.5 games of each other.
- LA Clippers – second (+4.0)
- Denver Nuggets – third (+2.5)
- Utah Jazz – fourth (+1.0)
- OKC Thunder – fifth
- Houston Rockets – sixth (even)
Notes: the bracketed number denotes how many games the OKC Thunder are behind. The Rockets and Thunder have identical records but OKC owns the tiebreak having won the season series 2-1. Therefore, the focus of this article will be on the three teams ahead of the Thunder.
With that let’s dive into each of the teams, the Thunder could pass to climb the standings in Orlando.
Slight opportunity for OKC Thunder to pass LA Clippers:
While the Clippers are within reach it’s unlikely OKC can make up four games in just eight games. If the presumed schedule is accurate the Thunder and Clippers will meet each other in one of their eight ‘seeded’ games.
On top of the four-game edge, the Clippers already have cemented a tie by winning two of the squads’ three meetings. Plus, LA’s eight ‘seeded’ games are easier with two bubble squads (Pelicans, Suns) and three games versus seventh seeds (Nets x 2, Mavericks). In comparison, OKC also plays two bubble teams (Wizards, Suns) but they face five clubs ranked fourth or higher in their other six games.
The slight glimmer of light in the scheduling for the Thunder comes courtesy of three divisional games. LA’s divisional record is 8-4 and they’ll play one more team in their division so at best could finish with a 9-4 record against Pacific teams.
That becomes relevant if the Thunder can defeat the Clippers and finish with an identical record, plus win those three Northwest rival games. By doing so the Thunder would have a 10-4 divisional record giving OKC the tiebreak advantage. The margin of four games still seems out of reach, but in this strange season, nothing is impossible.
To that end, the real opportunity to climb up the ladder is presented via the third-seeded Nuggets and fourth-seeded Jazz. Let’s look at those squads…
Denver Nuggets are within striking distance:
Denver sits 2.5 games ahead of the Thunder, but the key here is the clubs will play twice in their eight remaining games. The squads have each won a game in the season series so if one team can win both matches they’ll own the tiebreak. The Nuggets have a relatively difficult schedule facing both LA clubs, as well as two strong Eastern clubs (Raptors and Heat). Depending on how motivated the Spurs are they could help OKC since they play the Nuggets twice.
One possible benefit the Nuggets will gain is they’ll face the Lakers early in the schedule. With the edge, the Lakers hold over their Western counterparts they can ease LeBron James and Anthony Davis back and lose some games.
OKC can’t afford to split the two Nuggets matches and tie Denver because they’d lose the tiebreak based on the divisional record. Notably, Denver is 10-1 in divisional games with the Thunder being the only team who’ve beaten them. While the Nuggets are a decent road team the Thunder has played better on the road particularly after Thanksgiving.
Overall, the schedule benefits the Thunder and while 2.5 games is a significant amount to make up in eight games it’s definitely doable. Winning those two head to head games is the priority if the Thunder want to take the series.
UPDATE: win percentage will take precedent over season series. Because the Clippers played one more game than OKC entering Orlando the Thunder should still focus on winning both games against the Nuggets but will need to finish with an extra win in Orlando due to the win percentage factor.
OKC Thunder set sights on Jazz:
Perhaps the best part of the league using the existing schedule is the Thunder will get to play the game versus Utah that was postponed on March 11th. A victory would push OKC ahead of the Jazz since they would win the season series (2-1) and therefore have the tiebreak edge.
In a perfect world, the Thunder would want to play the Jazz in the postseason as we’ve highlighted previously. That matchup can happen via the season playing out in a few different scenarios:
- The Jazz and Thunder retain their current fourth and fifth seeds
- OKC and Jazz switch positions on the ladder
- The Thunder move past Jazz and Nuggets to claim third seed while the Jazz falls to sixth
- Likewise, the Thunder overtake the Jazz, Nuggets, and Clippers to gain the second seed while the Jazz drop below the Thunder, Rockets, and Mavericks into seventh
As crazy as those latter two scenarios might seem they aren’t that far fetched, particularly the scenario for the Thunder to claim the third seed and the Jazz to drop to sixth. The reality is it won’t be surprising if the Jazz drops down to seventh.
One of the stranger aspects of the Jazz calendar is other than the Clippers and Thunder, they didn’t play any games versus the Nuggets, Rockets or Mavericks until January 25th. In a month, they played that trio seven times winning the Mavs series (2-0) but lost both series versus the Nuggets (0-2) and Rockets (1-2).
In their eight ‘seeded’ games aside from the Thunder, the Jazz will play the Lakers and Spurs twice plus the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Mavericks.
Even if the Thunder doesn’t win the game versus the Jazz they could still vault past Utah given the Jazz’ schedule is arguably harder than each of the Thunder, Rockets, and Mavericks.
Where will the OKC Thunder finish season?
Best case scenario would be for the Thunder to take the fourth seed and hope the Jazz can retain the fifth seed.
Much could depend on how motivated both the Thunder and their opponents are to secure specific seeds. For example, the Nuggets sit 1.5 games back of the Clippers but they may feel they match up better with the other LA juggernaut – the Lakers and subsequently be willing to drop to fourth.
A key to the eight games to come in Orlando is some of the top teams may not play their superstars big minutes in the first few games electing to ease them back.
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Conversely, the bubble teams won’t take the same approach as their fate requires finishing ninth. Likewise, the Nets and Magic are separated by a half-game and may not be fearful of the Wizards closing the gap but might prefer to face the Raptors over the Bucks in the first round. That should equate to each of the Grizzlies, Nets, Magic, and six bubble teams playing desperate basketball.
To that end, of the six teams seeded second through seventh here’s how many times they’ll play the above nine squads in Orlando:
- Clippers/Jazz/Mavericks (4)
- Thunder (3)
- Nuggets/Rockets (2)
Although the third seed is within reach it doesn’t behoove OKC to move up that high given it would likely mean a second-round series versus the Clippers who are their worst matchup. If the Thunder has to play the Clippers the preference would be to hold off as long as possible. It’s a pick your poison scenario since the Lakers would be the second-round opponent if they avoid the Clippers.
Obviously, OKC can only determine their own fate so they’ll have to focus on winning. Ultimately, the OKC Thunder can do some damage in Orlando and it’s likely they move up one spot to fourth.
Look for Billy Donovan to ease Chris Paul, Steven Adams, and Danilo Gallinari back building their minutes as the club progresses through the eight games. The key will be to keep these vets healthy, regaining chemistry with emphasis on making sure their clutch time closing prowess is clicking on all cylinders.