5 strengths OKC Thunder can utilize to win 8 ‘seeded’ games

A number of strengths will separate teams in Orlando with the OKC Thunder ranking among the elite.

As part of the 22 game return, teams will each play eight ‘seeded’ games. The NBA hasn’t released a specific formal itinerary but has indicated teams will continue where they left off against the participating teams in Orlando.  Since it was the OKC Thunder versus Utah Jazz game that kickstarted the halt in season play, could that game be the first game fans get to witness in the restart of the season in Orlando?

As of today’s posting, these are the proposed timelines for the different segments of the restart:

• Eight seeding games between July 30th through August 14th.
• Play-in games August 15th and 16th (if teams meet ninth seed requirements)
• First round of playoffs: August 17th through August 29th
• Second round of playoffs: August 31st through September 12th
• Conference Finals: September 14th through September 27th
• NBA Finals: September 29th through October 11th.

Of note, the main changes from the initial timelines are starting one day earlier and the seventh game of NBA Finals (if necessary) ending one day sooner.

Scheduling dynamics:

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN provided some preliminary details on the restart. One of the more intriguing notes in Wojnarowski’s article is each team present in Orlando is expected to play one back to back set during the eight ‘seeded’ games.

The other noteworthy takeaway is the playoff format won’t have extended off days between games. Based on the broad stroke dates provided there are approximately 12 to 13 days for each playoff round. Wojnarowski’s article referred to it as the “NBA Finals format” stating teams would play every other day.

Historically, it’s common for teams to have two and three days off particularly after game two and prior to game three as clubs travel. The goal is to expedite all playoff rounds in order to finish as quickly and safely as possible. Should the NBA Finals run the gamut of seven games a champion would be determined on October 11th.

Four days later (October 15th) the NBA Draft would occur and a mere three days later (October 18th) free agency would start. That’s a very compact schedule but necessary in order to be back on the hardwood in December.

From a logistical standpoint, there are five key strengths the OKC Thunder can utilize to post a winning margin in their eight ‘seeded’ games in Orlando.

Keys to OKC Thunder winning majority of eight ‘seeded’ games:

The next eight matches (of the 21 opponents who’ll be in Orlando) on the Thunder schedule are the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets, Miami Heat, Nuggets again, Phoenix Suns, and LA Clippers. To clarify, these matches haven’t been confirmed and there could be tweaks given some teams have fewer lottery bubble teams to replace.

Nor has the league provided any clarification on the dates or times of the games.

While we await the formal schedule Tim Reynolds broke down who each of the 22 teams should face if the league sticks to the initial assessment of continuing where teams left off.

Notably, using this scheduling format, the Heat and Magic would be short one game while the Lakers and Blazers would be short two games and therefore likely be matched versus each other.

In terms of placing strength of schedule ranking on the eight contests, it’s more difficult in this setting for a number of reasons.

The very top clubs with breathing room might work their stars back in slowly making them easier to beat earlier in the eight games and harder to beat later as they build toward the postseason.

Likewise, the six bubble and three currently seeded clubs (Nets, Magic, Grizzlies) will be invested from the first game. That dynamic could make those clubs more difficult to beat early. But if those teams fall off the pace to reach the tournament – their investment won’t be as strong later in the tournament.

The three opening games for the OKC Thunder should feature the team in front of them and two invested bubble teams early (Wizards, Grizzlies). But, OKC could benefit in the latter portion of matches via the timing of those games. The Heat and Clippers might already be in a position where they can’t be caught or can’t move up whereas the Suns will likely be mathematically out of the playoff picture.

That’s important since the Thunder will want to overtake the Jazz and stay ahead of the Rockets. The main question will be where the Nuggets are positioned with two projected matches against OKC and the potential for a seeding shift here as well.

The trio of key strengths required to win:

Other factors cited by analysts include teams who run specific offenses predicated more on shooting may take time to get into a shooting rhythm and flow. Squads who exhibited upper-tier defense, the ability to win on the road, and a deep bench are also expected to fare well in Orlando.

The reason for this trio of points is logical. The old adage, defense travels has never been more apropos. Moreover, a team that can use solid defense to navigate cold shooting spells to keep games close has a decided advantage.

Depth is always key but particularly in this unusual situation with players returning after such a long hiatus. Even more compelling are the clubs who utilized their roster depth to accumulate wins while core players were out. It’s one thing to have a deep squad and quite another to be able to go deep into your bench with players who’ve gained experience in winning moments this season.

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• Stealing one player from every Southwest Division team for the OKC Thunder
• Should the OKC Thunder chase after a disgruntled hometown hero?
• 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
• Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

Every team will need to win on the road because EVERY game is on the road. Some pundits are suggesting the pathetic road record of the 76ers and Heat can be thrown away – but can they? If a game comes down to the clutch time the experience of winning on the road has to be considered a huge edge.

To that end, half the teams attending have winning road records – –  the top seven seeds in the West plus the top three East seeds and the Pacers. Of those teams, seven have a winning percentage of 60 percent or better while the OKC Thunder, Lakers, Bucks, and Raptors are the only teams who won 64.5 percent (or higher) of their road games.

Again, some analysts are citing road wins as a non-factor, but then consider three of these clubs are leaders in winning the most games in clutch time. NBA fans are very familiar with this fact given the OKC Thunder 29 clutch time wins ranks first overall. The Raptors have the fifth most (22) and the Lakers are tied in eighth (18).

That’s not to say the Bucks can’t win in the clutch – they just finish teams off earlier and therefore haven’t had as many clutch time opportunities. Perhaps a more telling stat is the percentage of clutch games these four clubs convert into wins. Using clutch time win percentage as the defining caveat, the Bucks rank first (78.9%), OKC Thunder third (69%), Lakers are fourth (66.7%) and the Raptors are sixth (64.7%).

OKC Thunder ever-improving record versus top teams:

Ultimately, a team that possesses many of the above strengths on their list should have an edge in Orlando. The OKC Thunder certainly should be included in that top tier given how many boxes they check off.

As noted above the situation makes the strength of schedule a little less clear in Orlando. Stats master John Schuhmann provides insight on how each of the particpants fared against each other.

Although the Thunder ranks 12th in Schuhmann’s chart the first 20 games of the season played a huge factor in this placement. Ten of the Thunder opponents in this segment are current playoff seeds (2-8) and another seven (3-4) are among the 22 clubs attending Orlando.

This is particularly relevant given it took the Thunder approximately 20 games to develop chemistry and integrate all the new players. Considering 12 of the Thunder losses (or half) to the 21 opponents in Orlando occurred in that segment speaks to their growth and how strong they were from that point forward in the season. From game 21 forward the Thunder record versus these same clubs was 20-12.

More from Thunder News

• Stealing one player from every Southwest Division team for the OKC Thunder
• Should the OKC Thunder chase after a disgruntled hometown hero?
• 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
• Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

To sum up, the OKC Thunder does utilize more than the typical seven players. Hamidou Diallo, Darius Bazley, Terrance Ferguson, and Abdel Nader all played meaningful minutes this season adding to the team’s depth. If Andre Roberson shocks and is remotely close to the player he was prior to his injury he becomes a pivotal defensive asset for Billy Donovan.

Defensively, the Thunder ranked ninth as of the season suspending play. Arguably, more importantly, OKC has the second-ranked fourth-quarter defense.

They are among the four best road teams and possess the best clutch time group. All in all, that’s an impressive set of strengths for the Thunder.

Cornerstone Shai Gigeous-Alexander raised his level of play in his first postseason experience and will be focused on showing why Thunder Nation is so excited about his stock. Steven Adams will be fresh as a daisy after all this time off which is something we’ve never witnessed since he’s usually nursing numerous injuries at this stage of the season. Danilo Gallinari wants to win a title and Dennis Schroder is eager to showcase his Sixth Man ability extends into the postseason.

Then factor in the intelligence of Chris Paul and his ability to balance the fine line of creating calm with competitive aggression and that’s a winning formula.