OKC Thunder: Could spiking COVID-19 cases in Florida spell trouble?

A spike in Florida COVID-19 cases begs the question if the NBA erred by putting all their eggs in one basket.

As the OKC Thunder ramp up efforts to resume play in Orlando the massive spike in Florida COVID-19 positive tests is cause for concern.

There is no question the NBA and National Basketball Players Association has worked tirelessly since mid-March to bring basketball back. Initially, the pandemic made a quick return impossible, and while the stakeholders awaited the curve to flatten they developed plans to restart the season.

The two venues noted as most viable for a return were Las Vegas and Orlando. The latter became more appealing due to the ability to utilize ESPN’s Wide World of Sports area at Walt Disney World and function within a campus-style bubble.

Florida is now a national hot spot for COVID-19:

But, as teams near the date when they’ll move to Disney the rising cases in Florida have to serve as a warning. Last week Thursday through Saturday Florida suffered three successive record-highs for new cases. Those numbers ranged from 3,207 to 3,822 and 4,049 respectively.  Sunday (3,494) and Monday (2,926) the numbers regressed but are still in an unfavorable territory.

It is clear why these numbers are concerning given the new cases have ballooned from the start of the month when 667 new cases were noted on June 1st.

Some are citing the increased number of tests as the reason but the percentage of positive tests should be the greater focus. Prior to this recent surge, the high mark for positive tests was April 26th (6.1 percent). Almost two months later the results are the same 6.19 percent.

Consider total cases for the country of Canada is 103,418. In comparison, the State of Florida’s total is 100,217. Again, say what you will about the number of tests being conducted but there are other relevant factors.

For example, Toronto performed 21, 900 tests on Sunday resulting in 161 new cases or 0.7 percent. I couldn’t find the specific number of tests taken in Florida that produced the 2,926 new cases on Monday. However, a June 20th  article in the Miami Herald by Lawrence Mower noted 12.3 percent of tests are producing positive results.

"The World Health Organization has said that in countries that have conducted extensive testing for COVID-19, the rate of positive cases should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days before loosening social-distancing requirements. Over the past 24 hours in Florida, 12.3% of the new tests were positive."

Monday on the ESPN First Take show the panel was discussing the situation in Florida. An owner messaged Stephen A. Smith while they were on the air stating “there is no other option to  Orlando”.  Having no contingency plan is the one area of the entire process Adam Silver missed the mark on.

In comparison to another similar sports league, the NHL has yet to name their two bubble sites. As of Monday, the NHL had narrowed the two bubble venues to six locations with three Canadian markets (Toronto, Vancouver, and Edmonton) and three U.S. markets.  The prevalent thinking is Vegas (the only known U.S. option publicly disclosed) will be one of the two bubble sites.

With all six sites meeting the needs of rinks, isolation in a bubble, and the other topline criteria the one thing analysts believe will tip the selection is where each state and province are in their coronavirus efforts. The NBA in comparison only ever considered two sites and once they elected to go with Orlando they put all their eggs in that basket.

In hindsight, the easy answer is perhaps the league should’ve had more than a few options both in the U.S. and Canada. To that end, Stephen A. Smith suggested the NBA should consider New York given where the state is in the restart phase of the pandemic. But, with that one message from the NBA owner, clearly, it’s Orlando or bust.

OKC Thunder and peers situation in Florida

In preparation for this article, I reached out to Keith Smith who was the first person to suggest WDW would be the ideal venue for the bubble. Smith offered key insight into the Florida situation at Disney and clarified some misinformation others recently dispensed.

One of the main areas I wanted to gain clarity on was the comments Carlye Wisel made to Trey Kirby on Thursday’s No Dunks podcast. Wisel stated there were guests already booked into the Grand Floridan hotel in the timeshare section. She implied this was in the exact same section of the hotel as players will be staying. The Grand Floridan is the hotel the OKC Thunder are in along with the 76ers, Rockets, Pacers, Mavericks, Nets, Grizzlies, and Magic.

Smith clarified that the timeshares Wisel mentioned are NOT in the hotel. Rather, it is a Vacation Club and a good distance away from where the NBA will be housed. He also said it won’t be difficult to keep distance between those guests and the NBA players.  Smith posted similar information in a tweet confirming the three hotels will not be open to the general public until the NBA is off-site.

The other question I had for Smith was about the rise in COVID-19 cases in Florida and how they break down throughout the state. Additionally, I was looking for insight into Naples which is where the Toronto Raptors will be conducting their pre-Disney ramp up.

Smith noted the worst hit segment of Florida is the Southeast portion of the state. Orlando is in the central part of the state while Naples is in the Southwest. Furthermore, he noted Florida Golf Coast University made a concerted effort to block off the area in preparation for the Raptors’ arrival. Smith cautioned that Florida isn’t a wide state so any spike is being taken seriously.

Moving forward one key problem exists:

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis downplays statistics citing increased testing and says mask-wearing should be voluntary or based on local government direction (Orange County has made wearing masks mandatory).

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One major factor the association can’t control is Disney staff who won’t be subjected to the same level of testing (if any) and will come and go from the bubble. In the ESPN article by Baxter Holmes and Zach Lowe NBPA executive director, Michelle Roberts cites potentially needing further restrictions for staffers based on Florida now being a national hot spot.

Again, this will be difficult to control given many of the WDW are unionized. One option the league may want to discuss with the powers that be at Disney is the potential to offer staffers to live on-site as well.

With the Raptors already in Florida, it could serve as an early indication of what is to come or offer insight on what specifically will need further tweaks.

In the interim, the OKC Thunder and 21 opponents are set to arrive in Florida at the beginning of July. Players have until tomorrow (June 24) to confirm their intent to participate. Later today, we dive into the four Thunder players who this decision could have the greatest impact on.