If James Harden gets his wish to be traded it could have far-reaching effects specifically for the OKC Thunder
The phrase “Houston – we have a problem” has entered a modern-day spin in the NBA. In a similar scenario to what played out for the OKC Thunder last offseason, the Rockets superstar James Harden demanded a trade to a specific destination.
To be clear, the Thunder who are actively invested in building for the future, won’t be a participant in the Beard sweepstakes. OKC isn’t looking to add players in their prime invested in winning championships right now.
That means Rockets GM, Rafael Stone won’t have Sam Presti on speed dial as a trade destination. Yet, while the Thunder won’t be on Harden’s shortlist nonetheless his exit could impact the club who drafted him and facilitated his trade to Houston.
Prior to diving into the how’s and why’s of that statement here’s a little background on how this situation reached its current state.
Harden trade could affect OKC Thunder in multiple ways
The reigning scoring champ told the Rockets in no uncertain terms he wanted out – preferably to Brooklyn. When Houston didn’t move swiftly to accommodate his request he chose to drive home his point by acting out publicly.
The former MVP has vacillated between anger, annoyance, and petulance. No doubt those emotions were fueled by the exit of a trio of his favorites.
First, head coach Mike D’Antoni elected not to re-sign another contract joining the Nets as Steve Nash’s assistant.
Morey’s exit was no less disturbing for Harden. During their time in Houston, the GM specifically tailored the team to compliment his star. Morey was equally reliable when it came to firing or ousting personnel to met Harden’s demands (Kevin McHale, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and presumably Clint Capella).
As for Westbrook, it was Harden who solicited Russ and worked Morey to get the deal done. One short season later the childhood friends both demanded trades. Turns out friendship only goes so far as Tim MacMahon scathing ESPN article on Harden revealed.
MacMahon notes Harden demanded the Rockets get Westbrook and oust Paul- threatening to demand a trade if they didn’t do it. Yet, Russ just like Paul before him found Harden’s lack of professionalism unacceptable:
"HOUSTON’S CASUAL CULTURE appalled Westbrook. In Oklahoma City, despite the fact that he enjoyed the same sort of superstar privileges as Harden has had in Houston, the Thunder operated with the discipline of a military unit under Westbrook’s watch. The Rockets were a stark contrast, —"
MacMahon covers in pinpoint detail a relationship more akin to a spoiled child and over accommodating parent than player and franchise. As the cornerstone talent of the Rockets, Harden has essentially held Houston hostage. But again, in fairness, the Rockets are equally (if not more) at fault for giving into their superstar’s every whim.
For as much as Harden’s lack of restraint or professionalism can’t be condoned, the Rockets created this problem through their inability to utter one simple word — NO!
In unfamiliar territory, the superstar elected to push the outside of the envelope via a public temper tantrum to expedite his demands. And with that, Morey’s replacement Stone finally delivered that tiny two-letter adverb Harden had never heard during his eight-year tenure in Houston.
On again – off again – on again Harden trade talks
Harden’s attempts to flex his power to get what he wanted ending up giving the Nets all the leverage. Even if the Rockets were investigating a trade he essentially tied Stone’s hands.
With the superstar using social media to show off his Vegas vacation activities Stone fittingly called his bluff resulting in Harden returning to Houston to rejoin his club.
Although the Nets were the Beard’s top choice, the 76ers joined the mix no doubt aided by the presence of old friend Morey now functioning in the front office in Philly.
Kendrick Perkins told First Take on Thursday (December 17th) he’d spoken to three GMs who all worried Harden’s off-court antics may not be worth the sacrifice. Perkins noted front offices are looking at James Harden as the modern-day version of Dennis Rodman.
But, hours later ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne updated on the situation stating multiple elite teams in both conferences are open to acquiring the star.
"Several playoff-caliber teams in the Eastern and Western conferences have told ESPN that they’re finding increased comfort in committing high-level trade assets in talks to acquire Harden."
Conveniently, the Rockets played their final preseason game Thursday with Harden in the line-up. In 27 minutes he collected 20 points, seven rebounds, nine assists, and a steal. While it wasn’t fully indicative of his true abilities, given his shape entering camp it was enough of a talent reminder to teams covetous of his services.
OKC Thunder could play the role of facilitator in Harden’s trade
To reiterate, the Thunder are not in the mix of teams wanting to trade for their former player. Granted, with a potential 18 first-round draft picks over the next seven seasons Sam Presti has inarguably the most trade equity in the Association.
There’s also the ‘been there, done that’ aspect to this situation. Given the current rhetoric surrounding Harden’s off-court indulgences presumably, Presti and the Thunder are already familiar with the dynamic.
In fact, the year prior to his trade to Houston, the OKC Thunder went to the NBA Finals. In that 2012 playoff run the young shooting guard was spectacular but floundered versus the Heat. Rumors surfaced he was out all hours in South Beach partying. While some suggested that was simply the party line (no pun intended), in retrospect, there was likely more fact than fiction to those stories.
Moving forward, the clear frontrunners for Harden are the Nets and 76ers. However, with Woj’s article update, the leverage is once again back in the Rockets’ corner. With other teams in the mix now, the 76ers Morey and Nets Sean Marks will have to provide a trade package worthy of landing the 2017 MVP (and a finalist in five of the past six campaigns).
As per Wojnarowski, the Nets, in particular, may need to involve a third party.
"The Nets are limited by the Rockets’ interest in their personnel, and likely would need a third team to emerge in talks, sources said."
Considering that statement, suddenly the OKC Thunder emerge as a desirable facilitator. Stone (like every front office exec) is covetous of those 18 potential first-round draft picks Presti has at his disposal over the next seven seasons.
While Woj cites the Nets as needing a third party, so too could other elite clubs. Several team’s plans were thwarted this week when Giannis Antetokounmpo elected to sign his extention to stay in Milwaukee. The Raptors, Mavericks, Heat, and Warriors were the squads most affected. Ironically, the Thunder own picks from all but the Raptors (second-round picks from the Mavericks).
Then again, there are few teams Presti hasn’t wrestled draft picks from as the Rockets and 76ers also owe OKC first-round picks.
The question is whether there are assets on any of those clubs Sam Presti would be interested in giving up picks for. Thunderous Intentions was high on Tyler Herro long before the youngster displayed the bubble snarl.
Could Presti grab the player TI coveted from the 2019 draft class? Surely a draft pick (not in the next two years) would be worth landing the 20-year old who fits the Thunder timeline and would be an ideal backcourt partner to grow with SGA. NOTE: be sure to check back this weekend for a Mark Nilon article specifically detailing options of this nature.
Scanning the elite club’s draft closets the only top teams whose draft cupboard isn’t bare of first-round picks are the Celtics and Raptors. Other teams with excess first-round picks that could be used to help facilitate the trade are the Pelicans, Knicks, and Grizzlies.
Trade could impact pre-existing draft picks Rockets owes Thunder
This offseason Sam Presti swiftly deconstructed his club to spark a rebuild he’s titled the ”Resiliency’ phase Like the Thunder, the Rockets revamped their roster but with aspirations of being a championship team.
Russell Westbrook was traded to the Wizards in exchange for John Wall and a draft pick. Stone bolstered his core with free agents DeMarcus Cousins and Christian Wood.
The biggest question is whether the Rockets will want to remain competitive or shift gears and try to collect draft picks and begin a rebuild focusing on Wood in a similar fashion to what Presti is doing with Gilgeous-Alexander.
Wall and Cousins are 30 coming off long injury absences with Wall owed $41.3 M, $44.3 M, and $47.3 M (player option) over the next three seasons. Trying to emulate what the Thunder did last season is a possible strategy. But there is a huge difference between Chris Paul and Wall as his last regular-season game was boxing day 2018.
Regardless of the direction Stone chooses the Thunder will be impacted because OKC owns the Rockets 2024, 2026 first-round draft picks protected 1-4 as well as two draft swaps in 2025 and 2021 (protected 1-4). If Houston elects to rebuild the Thunder has to hope they are a lottery team but not a bottom four lottery team or suddenly those picks aren’t as valuable.
How the Harden trade could impact Gilgeous-Alexander:
Although Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is technically a combo guard, his true position is point guard. Yet in every positional comparison ranking or awards category, he’s listed as a shooting guard.
Harden’s exit to the East could open the door — or more accurately slightly put it ajar with the opportunity for SGA to get an All-Star berth. Granted, the West is loaded in the backcourt but with Westbrook already in Washington should Harden head East it could offer an opportunity for the Canadian.
OKC Thunder could still be trade partner for Rockets
The final piece of this puzzle is how competitive the Rockets will be after trading Harden. If they are a playoff seed they’ll need some veteran talent at the trade deadline. Presti has already demonstrated his prowess at flipping serviceable veterans for draft picks and will be more than willing to bolster his draft closet once again.
The only bigs on the Rockets roster are Boogie and Bruno Caboclo — more of a lengthy wing so Al Horford may draw Houston’s attention.
Likewise, if Harden is traded, while Wall is a solid point guard the Rockets are thin on playmakers. Chris Clemons tore his Achilles tendon so he’s lost for the season.
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Moreover, this Houston team was built around Harden whose usage rate the past three seasons was 36.1 percent, 40.5 percent, and 36,3 percent.
As solid as Wall is he’ll need a backup and another playmaker he can rely on. Last season Eric Gordon averaged 1.5 assists per game and is capable of running the point. However, Gordon’s best asset is 3-point shooting. Having Gordon on the perimeter ready to make a catch and shoot 3-pointer is preferable.
George Hill on the other hand is more of a true point guard though he can also hit from the perimeter with accuracy, Factor in Hill ran pick and roll sets ad nauseam in Milwaukee with Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez.
Hill would be a great backup option for Wall to run the point, offer another shooter and work with Boogie in pick and roll. George Hill might be the perfect fit in that regard.
Ultimately, it seems Harden will get his wish and in all likelihood head East. What remains to be seen is how it will impact the draft picks Houston owes the Thunder and whether additional gains can be made now or later via trades to bolster the Rockets roster.