OKC Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander’s strong All-Star case faces uphill battle

The NBA is forging ahead with the 2021 All-Star Game slated to occur on March 7th in Atlanta. In all but the inaugural season of the OKC Thunder franchise, the team has had at least one player participate in the main fan event of the season. That is likely to change this season although Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has delivered a solid case for his inclusion.

Clearly, this year is extremely different given the coronavirus pandemic and more importantly the league’s superstars who were vocal in their proclamations against holding the annual event.

This week, the starters who fans, players, and media voted for were announced. LeBron James and former OKC Thunder superstar Kevin Durant received the most votes and subsequently will be the team captains. Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, and Nikola Jokic were the other Western vote-getters while the East adds Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid.

Coaches will now complete the 12-man rosters by selecting another seven players from each conference. While there are a few players who might breakthrough for their inaugural appearance there are also a number of perennial participants likely already cemented.

Case in point, Damian Lillard is a lock while Donovan Mitchell and/or Rudy Gobert is another lock based on the Jazz holding the best record in the NBA.  Unlike fans, coaching staffs historically reward ‘team’ performance as a prime consideration. That means players from lottery teams don’t typically get rewarded (see Bradley Beal and late additions of last year).

Nor do coaches tend to reward teams who aren’t seeded in the top four spots with more than one player. It will be interesting to see if that changes this season with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo of the Heat who are still outside the top eight teams (10th).

Regardless, it is a safe assumption the players on playoff seeded clubs will receive stronger consideration.

OKC Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander battle to become an All-Star reserve:

Entering action the weekend those eight current playoff seeds are noted below. In addition, the players either already starting (in bold) or who’ll receive consideration to be added as reserves are listed:

1. Utah Jazz – Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert
2. Los Angeles Lakers LeBron James and Anthony Davis
3. LA Clippers – Kawhi Leonard and Paul George
4. Portland Trail Blazers – Damian Lillard
5. Phoenix Suns – Chris Paul and Devin Booker
6. San Antonio Spurs – DeMar DeRozan
7. Denver Nuggets – Nikola Jokic 
8. Golden State Warriors – Stephen Curry 

With the announcement James, Leonard, Jokic, and Curry are starters that means four top eight seeds from the West are represented. As noted Lillard is a lock and there will definitely be one or possibly two players added from the Jazz. While Anthony Davis would be an automatic addition his injury will keep him from participating.

The question is whether coaches will leave him off their list knowing he can’t play or reward him anyway and let Adam Silver decide who replaces him. Last season Devin Booker was the injury replacement for Damian Lillard.

Although Booker could be selected again it’s equally likely Chris Paul gets rewarded for the job he’s done captaining the Suns to fifth. Moreover, as the NBPA president, he championed the All-Star game moving forward and for HBCUs to be a focus of the event.

DeMar DeRozan may also be a player coaches consider with the Spurs sitting in sixth. Another possibility is Paul George but given he just returned from missing seven consecutive games and 10 in total it offers an excuse to leave him off the team.

Let’s assume the locks are Lillard, and Mitchell with the high potential for CP3 Gobert and Davis being in the mix. That would take five of the seven spots (and again, Silver would then make the decision on Davis’ replacement).

The other part of this equation is the politics and popularity of players. For example, Zion Williamson is a player the league is eager to promote and a fan favorite. But the Pelicans rank 12th and arguably Brandon Ingram is the better overall player.

Looking at the teams ranked ninth through 15th each has a star with an argument to be selected:

• Ja Morant – Memphis Grizzlies (9th)
• De’Aaron Fox – Sacramento Kings (11th)
• Williamson/Ingram – Pelicans (12th)
• Christian Wood – Rockets (13th)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC Thunder (14th)
• Karl-Anthony Towns – Wolves (15th)

Wood like PG13 is dealing with an extended absence due to injury which could provide the necessary excuse.

While Towns team is dead last will his circumstance garner votes after he’s been through such a difficult year losing his mother and six family members and also contracting the virus himself.

Morant and SGA have similar cases in that they are the face of their organizations and young leaders of teams many cite as overachieving. Albeit, the recent accumulation of losses by the OKC Thunder may also work against Shai.

Another consideration is the seven reserves are broken down by position with three from the frontcourt, two backcourt, and two wild cards. That means at most four guards could be selected.

Assuming Lillard and Mitchell are locked it lessens the odds for Gilgeous-Alexander. Especially considering he’ll be in the mix facing Chris Paul, Booker, DeRozan, Morant, and Fox under consideration for a wild card slot.

So let’s dive into the stats of the backcourt players most likely to be in the mix to land the two reserve spots or wild card slots. In each case, except Ja Morant, I pulled the last three seasons to highlight their comparative performance this season.

Two Phoenix guards vie for one spot

Chris Paul:

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Generated 2/20/2021.

While CP3 is scoring slightly less he’s dishing more assists and in his case is unique in terms of how much he affects winning.

Paul will garner plenty of attention beyond championing the event because of how hard he worked last year to help make the Orlando bubble a reality.

There isn’t much of a debate on why he’s another player likely to make the reserve team and if that’s a given then suddenly only one spot would be available from the following five…

Devin Booker:

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Generated 2/20/2021.

From a purely statistical standpoint, Booker’s numbers are down slightly this year. That’s partly because there is more talent on the Suns this season and he’s not being asked to do everything. For example, with Paul on the team now Booker isn’t tasked with creating as much for his teammates which explains why his assists are down.

Presumably, Monty Williams has also tasked others with roles that may explain why his rebounds are lower this season but given his free throw attempts and efficiency are also down it doesn’t help his cause over his own teammate Chris Paul.

DeMar DeRozan:

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/20/2021.

An interesting oddity regarding DeRozan is he is known as a shooting guard and was listed on the ballot as a guard, but on basketball reference, he’s noted as a power forward.

DeRozan’s points per game are slightly lower which is easily explained given the Spurs system and team ball schemes. What’s notable is the increased assists per game – – a career-high 6.9.

Another key will be the role DeRozan is playing with a mostly young squad and how he’s often the player who takes over in clutch time whether it be as a scorer, playmaker or drawing the foul that ensures he gets to the line.

Gregg Popovich is so well respected by the coaches this selection makes a ton of sense and while there are others who are growing in the Spurs system like Dejounte Murray he’s not reached a consistent stage yet to get that nod.

Ja Morant:

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Generated 2/20/2021.

Morant’s presence on the list might seem premature given his tenure in the NBA. However, the fact is he does so much to affect winning and is the undisputed team leader is why. An interesting side note is his team has a better record than his draft counterpart, Zion Williamson yet the latter is seemingly getting more attention.

He’s the top scorer and assists man on the ninth place Grizzlies who are still waiting for Jaren Jackson Jr’s return as well as Justise Winslow.

Something to consider when looking at team records is the point differential as it often indicates a team’s potential. For example, the Nuggets and Raptors were two clubs with a positive differential even while they toiled outside the top eight teams in their conferences.

Fast forward a few weeks and both teams have climbed onto the playoff ladder. Both teams have the fourth-best net differential in their respective conferences currently so if they end up with home-court seeds it won’t be surprising.

Likewise, the Grizzlies possess the eighth-best differential. A complexity in this matter is each of the Blazers, Grizzlies, and Spurs are missing core contributors that could impact that part of the equation.

While I doubt Morant makes the cut he deserves consideration.

De’Aaron Fox:

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Generated 2/20/2021.

Fox isn’t likely to get serious consideration given his comments agreeing with LeBron James that the game shouldn’t occur. Although he’s a rising star who leads his team in points and assists he has more talent on his squad than some of his counterparts.

For a brief moment, he became a talking point when the Kings won seven of eight matches but they’ve since lost five in a row. That winning streak also occurred with many of the opponents they beat missing core players.

He’s definitely taken a step this season but with his poor shooting compared to others on this list it’s doubtful he garners the All-Star nod.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:

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Generated 2/20/2021.

As the cornerstone of the OKC Thunder Gilgeous-Alexander has accepted the role of the main leader of the club as it begins the next era of the franchise. SGA has consistently demonstrated his ability to handle increased responsibility and has grown both on and off the hardwood.

Last season he took on a larger role in the offense while learning from mentor Chris Paul. This season he’s taken over the responsibility of being the alpha and is the player who the team relies upon during clutch time situations.

Like last year, he leads the Thunder in scoring but this season he also is the top assists man. Adding to his case is he’s now the number one guy and on a team without another superstar or All-Star (all due respect to Al Horford).

Stepping into the role of the alpha isn’t always an easy transition and in many cases isn’t always an easy transition. SGA has taken to the role with great ease and has done it the right way.

To that end, there is more to consider when comparing the Canadian to those he’s competing against for a spot on the All-Star team.

The efficiency comparison:

The final part of this puzzle is how Gilgeous-Alexander measures up versus the other players in terms of efficiency on all areas of the court.

Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 2/20/2021.

Other than free throws SGA ranks first in four of the categories and second in the other three. This offsets the thinking Shai is simply succeeding because he’s playing on a lottery team and therefore his opportunity to take more shots is present.

That is partially true but his commitment is to ensure the team grows and works as a unit. That factor ties into his playmaking and his increase in assists that have doubled this season.

That he’s taking quality shots and doing it efficiently and effectively should be something the coaches consider when voting.

East Reserves:

Since the focus of this piece was SGA and the west reserves it ignored the frontcourt debates and all of the Eastern reserve conversations, however, I’ve noted below who I think gets the nods and who I would select given that option.

Presumed Coach Selections:

For the record, I believe who gets selected and who deserves to be selected is very different especially in the East. For the 76ers to be the top team and questions over a second player being added but no questions about having the Brooklyn trio all on the team feels wrong.

It’s also difficult to have as strong of an acceptance for players who aren’t on playoff seeds because the East while improved isn’t as strong as the West.

There’s also the whole debate over squads like the Heat and Hawks who are underperforming given their talent. And while it’s reasonable health and safety and injuries have played a role look at what the 76ers and Blazers did in spite of dealing with the same issues.

Backcourt: Jaylen Brown, James Harden
Frontcourt: Jayson Tatum, Khris Middleton, Bam Adebayo (although it won’t surprise me if Julius Randle or Jerami Grant gets the nod here)
Wild Cards: Trae Young, Zach LaVine

My Reserve Picks:

Backcourt: Jaylen Brown, Ben Simmons
Frontcourt: Jayson Tatum, Domantas Sabonis, Bam Adebayo
Wild Cards: Fred VanVleet, Zach LaVine

My choices reflect a combination of record and personal production with the benefit going to two-way players hence the two Celtics, VanVleet and Adebayo. Likewise, I selected two 76ers because of their top-ranked East club and chose Simmons over Tobias Harris because of his defense.

Unlike the masses I’m not selecting the Brooklyn trio – – they have two players on the team.  And, I picked LaVine over Young because of his overall stats and clutch time production.

Having just watched three games in a row where Middleton struggled and repeatedly got exposed on defense I elected to go with Sabonis who has 25 double-doubles and is deserving especially with the Pacers missing both TJ Warren and Caris LeVert but remaining on the ladder.

West Reserves:

The West is less contentious in terms of the coach reserve selection and who I would pick with of course one perhaps biased glaring omission.

Presumed Coach Selections:

Backcourt: Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell
Frontcourt: Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson Rudy Gobert (Paul George as injury replacement)
Wild Cards: Chris Paul, DeMar DeRozan

My Reserve Picks:

Backcourt: Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell
Frontcourt: Anthony Davis, Brandon Ingram, Rudy Gobert
Wild Cards: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chris Paul

My best guess is the two backcourt positions will go to Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell with the frontcourt spots going to Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, and Rudy Gobert.

I have a feeling Paul George makes the cut perhaps as the Davis injury replacement. Like Christian Wood, I removed Mike Conley from consideration although it wouldn’t be inconceivable for him to get rewarded after years of snubs and because of the Jazz record. Likewise, CJ McCollum misses the cut due to his injury absence.

As for the two wild-card spots, I believe Chris Paul is essentially a lock. That leaves one more spot and although SGA has the numbers and efficiency to warrant the selection my gut says DeRozan (or Conley) gets the final spot.

In closing:

Considering the field, it doesn’t seem likely Shai will be among those selected for the All-Star Game. If he isn’t it won’t be because he hasn’t produced an effort worthy of inclusion.

Over the years we’ve heard coaches state publicly they’ve made calls to other teams to request their player’s addition to the team. The takeaway being ‘you vote for my guy(s) and I’ll vote for yours.  A quid pro quo if you will.

And there is the politics of relationships. It happens with other things like voting for Coach of the Year. Gregg Popovich for example would be well received if he said ‘this guy should be on the team’ to others. So influence is a definite factor with the voting.

And while it might seem like that conversation wouldn’t happen the coaches are cognizant that making an All-Star team impacts contract bonuses and eventually can affect Hall of Fame nominations and acceptance.

We’ll find out next week. What do you think?