Continuing Intentions NBA Draft prospect series the first true big man is up next — Evan Mobley. While most teams would love to add the forward the OKC Thunder would have to make a deal in order to move up in the draft order to nab him.
Before I get into the semantics of that happening, Intentions will focus on the USC 7′ prospect providing an overview, his strengths, and weaknesses. Then wrap up with his NBA comparison and how he would fit with the OKC Thunder.
For most of the season, Mobley sat firmly in second on mock drafts. But with an increasing belief, the Rockets will select Jalen Green it shifts the entire top of the ladder with Mobley sliding to third and possibly fourth. More on this at the end of the article.
Let’s take a look at what makes Mobley unique and why many experts are projecting a long career with star potential for the USC forward.
OKC Thunder draft prospect preview for Evan Mobley:
Specifics:
- Height: 7′
- Weight: 210 pounds
- Wingspan: 7’4″
- Position: Forward
- Birthdate/Age: June, 18th 2001 – 20 years
- College: USC, freshman
- Stat line: 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.9 blocks
- Home Town: Murrieta, California
Box Score Statistics:
Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 7/9/2021.
Current Ranking:
As per above, Mobley is dropping down the ladder, not because of his talent, but rather because of the roster compilation of the teams selecting second and third.
With the Rockets essentially cementing Jalen Green at second that pushes Mobley down to third. However, that’s also not a lock since the Cavaliers just added Jarrett Allen this year and already have a glut of big men on their roster. Although the Cavs picking Jalen Suggs might seem equally unlikely Collin Sexton wants a max deal. That’s equated to rumors Cleveland will trade Sexton and voila that would make Suggs the perfect selection to replace him and add some size to go with Darius Garland in the backcourt.
If that happens watch for the Raptors to jump on Mobley to fill a need upfront. With both Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol exiting last year among the myriad of issues the Raptors dealt with was finding a replacement who fit their system. It could end up being a win-win for Mobley and the Raptors especially if Kyle Lowry and the team renew his contract to help integrate the big man.
- The Ringer: 2nd
- NBA DraftNet: 3rd
- ESPN: 3rd
- CBS Sports: 3rd
- NBA: 2nd
- Bleacher Report: 3rd
- FanSided The Step Back: 2nd
With that let’s dive a little deeper into Evan Mobley starting with his strengths and weaknesses…
Evan Mobley strengths and weaknesses
Strengths:
With the rise of big men in the 2021 playoffs the value of Evan Mobley can’t be undermined. A look at Deandre Ayton in particular with how he is holding his own versus the floor spacing bigs of the association adds further credence for why Mobley fits the current era.
Although he only shoots 30 percent from the perimeter that is an aspect of his game a good development system could help improve. But I’m jumping ahead of all the things Mobley excels at and why he is by far the best big in the 2021 class.
He plays power forward but eventually could also play center, and I won’t say in a small-ball lineup because hello — he’s 7′.
Again, I’ll point you to former OKC Thunder guard Chris Paul and highlight how he’s accelerated Ayton’s effectiveness and then point out Mobley could end up playing with John Wall in Houston (unlikely) or Kyle Lowry in Toronto (if he re-signs). Either of these scenarios could find Mobley bursting onto the scene in his first year as he becomes a pick-and-roll beast.
His offense is versatile with the ability to score inside or in the mid-range. His passing ability is above average for a young big and would compliment a heavy ball movement system. Unlike many bigs of his age, he can already create his own shot. Mobley has equal dexterity scoring with either hand, can score via pick and pop, or hook shots. He has a high I.Q. with the ability to quickly figure out whether he’ll attack the rim, shoot or pass to an open teammate.
Likewise, his defensive ability is also well developed for his age and has the added benefit of being able to defend the pick and roll which typically takes young bigs a few years to figure out. Despite his size, his lateral movement is well above par. Another quality to love about Mobley is he doesn’t get lured into stupid fouls which is something most young bigs take time to figure out.
Add that all up and there is reason to believe the forward could eventually be All-Defense. He’ll need to add size to face the bruising big men but otherwise, he’s a rare commodity in this ear of big men.
Weaknesses:
There isn’t much not to like about Mobley especially given the fact at 20 he’s already demonstrating an above-average defensive ability to defend from rim to perimeter.
That said, he’s got some work to do to develop his game to fit into the new era of bigs who stretch the floor. He shoots 69.4 percent from the charity stripe which isn’t great and that typically denotes an inability to shoot well from the perimeter (he shot 30 percent this year).
But his shot is fluid and his skill set and I.Q. are advanced so in the right development system he has the potential to grow in this area.
While his decision-making is strong he has a tendency (rarely) to over-dribble leading to turnovers. Therefore he’ll need to work on sharpening his handle and if he ends up on a team with a strong identity and development system there’s no reason to believe he can’t improve in this area.
As noted, although 7′ he’ll need to add size in order to defend the bigger power forwards and centers. Conversely, his quickness will cause those bigs issues in having to defend him.
Pro Comparison:
The players who the experts cite as comparisons for Mobley are Chris Bosh, Christian Wood, Pau Gasol, and Bam Adebayo. That’s a pretty heady group of big men who all possess star talent with offensive prowess and in Bam’s case two-way ability.
Typically the comparison list offers a high end and low end but I was hard-pressed to find any low-end comparisons for Mobley. That alone should have his drafting team giddy over his ceiling and potential future promise.
OKC Thunder fit:
Rarely does a big man enter the draft that already has pick-and-roll defensive ability and when it does happen they are typically a defensive specialist. That’s what makes Mobley such an exciting young talent.
Okay- so he’s not a 3-point threat and may never be but if we consider players like Ayton and Adebayo they have become integral to the Suns and Heat success and neither is a 3-point threat.
In terms of the OKC Thunder, Sam Presti would need to trade up to grab Mobley, and based on the movement at the top of the draft it’s likely they would need to make that deal with either the Cavaliers or Raptors. That seems unlikely unless Presti is willing to part with an asset and it’s doubtful either Cleveland or Toronto would accept someone who isn’t in the protected core (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Aleksej Pokusevski).
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After Dort’s run with team Canada you just know Nick Nurse would want either Dort or SGA to cough up their fourth pick and as good as I think Mobley will be I’m not sure it’s worth that price.
Cleveland would also want something in return and likely to jettison Sexton. Presti might be able to move him but again, I’m not sure it’s worth it given Sexton is best suited as a Sixth Man but believes he’s a starting superstar.
Factor in Mobley would fit the current Raptors like a glove and it’s hard to believe Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster would be keen to swap picks. Ujiri is known for his ability to find diamonds later in the draft and is keen on Scottie Barnes — BUT — that was prior to the shakeup at the top of the draft that could make Mobley available at fourth.
The Trojan is a big who works in most rosters and would tick off several boxes Presti likes particularly defensively but I’m just not convinced the Thunder VP would make the same deal for Mobley that he would for Cunningham or Green.