OKC Thunder: Win projections, over-under – top picks

Bottom Tier – Miss play-in, lottery-bound, OKC Thunder group

While trades can change the dynamics of a team’s overall performance (up or down) there are other factors at play typically in this bottom tier.

Most are rebuilding, young. or clubs committed to the tank. Two teams who are infrequent visitors to this section are the Spurs and Raptors.  Prior to last season, Gregg Popovich led his club to 22 consecutive postseasons. They are focused on the youth having moved on from the veteran quartet of LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan, Patty Mills, and Rudy Gay.

Toronto won the championship just three seasons ago and finished second overall in 2019-20 but ended a seven-year consecutive postseason run. Being relegated to play 72 road games in Tampa Bay, a brutal COVID outbreak, and Murphy’s Law resulted in a late-season tank netting them the fourth overall draft pick (Scottie Barnes). They’ll start this campaign without the services of the GROT (greatest Raptor of all-time) Kyle Lowry and with Pascal Siakam still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery.

Despite the shift toward youth, they still have four young leaders with rings and arguably the best defensive coach in the NBA.  It might be location bias, but this feels like one of the easier bets to go over. Of note: every single exit interview and recent player appearances have discussed how angry they were to miss the playoffs and playing in an arena where the fans were cheering for the opponent.

They’re back home for this campaign and the notoriously loud home crowd alone should propel them to some extra wins. Watch out for this club to be among the league-best defensively. The question is where the consistent offense comes from and who assumes the bulldog win with the game on the line mentality of Lowry.

Another team in this tier that feels like an easy over pick is the Timberwolves. Yeah, I know they never seem to find their groove and always are battling either injury or defensive allergies. But Karl-Anthony Towns is in his prime and if they can stay healthy with Chris Finch getting a full training camp they could be one of the most explosive offenses. The 34.5 isn’t a crazy benchmark to reach so they’re worth taking a shot on the over.

As for our OKC Thunder, while another season in the low 20 range is less than exciting it’s just what the doctor ordered. If anything that might be a bit too high for what the bespeckled magician covets as he’ll be driven to ensure they improve their lottery ball chances next spring.

Last season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup the club was 16-19 or a win percentage of 45.7 percent. Without SGA, they were 6-31 (16.2%).  The OKC Thunder cannot afford for the team to win at that SGA margin (37.4 games if they do). Fortunately, this team is comprised of copious youngsters like rookie Josh Giddey. Daigneault has 11 players under 23 who will get ample opportunity to expand their games and gain invaluable experience facing the top lineups.

Still, Mark Daigneault will have to find a balance between developing his youngsters, keeping the youngsters hungry, and invested all while not amassing too many wins.  Expect the team to use extreme caution on any minor injury especially to SGA, Luguentz Dort, Aleksej Pokusevski, and Darius Bazley as another way to help pad that loss column.  Plus, as Intentions previously noted, Daigneault can use the mid-season tournament if it happens to bolster their confidence and pride.

Toronto Raptors – 35.5    | ESPN Projection: 35-47 |   2020-21 record: 27-45

Sacramento Kings – 35.5   | ESPN Projection: 35-47 |   2020-21 record: 31-41

Minnesota Timberwolves – 34.5  | ESPN Projection: 31-51 |   2020-21 record: 23-49

Washington Wizards – 34.5  | ESPN Projection: 36-46 |   2020-21 record: 34-38

San Antonio Spurs – 28.5   | ESPN Projection: 34-48 |   2020-21 record: 33-39

Cleveland Cavaliers – 27.5   | ESPN Projection: 26-56 |   2020-21 record: 22-50

Houston Rockets – 27.5   | ESPN Projection: 22-60 |   2020-21 record: 17-55

Detroit Pistons – 24.5   | ESPN Projection: 25-57|   2020-21 record: 20-52

OKC Thunder -22.5   | ESPN Projection: 22-60 |   2020-21 record: 22-50

Orlando Magic  – 22.5   | ESPN Projection:  22- 60 |   2020-21 record: 21-51

For those wanting more insight from the ESPN crew on why they projected the records they did click here for the Eastern Conference reasoning and here for the OKC Thunder and Western Conference rationale.