The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the midst of a rebuild. Sam Presti is trying to put together a roster that can have another ten-year run of success. The last time Presti built a team from the ground up, it resulted in four trips to the Western Conference Finals and one of the best winning percentages in all ofthe American professional sports, not just the NBA. Of course, it helps that the OKC Thunder General Manager snagged three straight eventually MVPs through the draft. The Thunder finished below 45 wins four times since moving in from Seattle and one of those seasons saw the Thunder win 44 games in a pandemic-shortened season.
The OKC Thunder got a strong baseline for this rebuild when they shipped Paul George to the L.A. Clippers for a historic pile of future draft picks, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Danilo Gallinari. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has turned into a budding star in Oklahoma City, one of those Clippers picks has already turned into a lottery selection, and Danilo Gallinari was a vital part of a playoff run in his lone season in Bricktown.
In two seasons of rebuilding the Oklahoma City Thunder now have a fascinating young roster that includes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, sixth overall pick in 2021 Josh Giddey, the 18th overall pick in 2021 Tre Mann, and a couple of fun second-rounders from the 21 drafts in Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Aaron Wiggins.
The Thunder followed that four-prospect draft class with another one in 2022, which featured three lottery picks. The prize of course was Chet Holmgren with the 2nd overall pick, but a splash trade brought back Ousmane Dieng with the 11th pick via New York, and the Thunder still retained the 12th selection to add Jalen Williams out of Santa Clara. Factor in a flyer on Jaylin Williams in the second round and the young talent is quickly piling up.
Did the 2022 NBA Draft class accelerate the OKC Thunder rebuild behind the addition of Chet Holmgren?
As we await for the 2022-23 season to begin, just staring at the countdown clock until media day and training camp is underway, I have been thinking a lot about what this season could look like.
I am brought back to our introductory press conference with the Thunder rookies. The Oklahoma City Thunder General Manager was asked directly if the rebuild was accelerated by the 2022 NBA Draft and Sam Presti replied “No, Not at all.” he went on to add that they are “pace-setting” right now.
This is not the first time Presti has pushed back on the idea of accelerating the rebuild, three months ago the OKC Thunder General Manager said the organization is not “racing against time” in this rebuild. So what comes next for the Oklahoma City Thunder?
Sure, the 2022 OKC Thunder draft class has a chance to be special, but what does the Western Conference look like in 2022-23?
The Oklahoma City Thunder have won below 25 games each of the last two seasons, however prior to the 2021-22 season the last time the Thunder won 25 or fewer games their win total spiked to 55 wins. Of course, that was courtesy of three future Hall of Famers and MVPs and was still barely good enough to get into the playoffs in a tough Western Conference, but they gave Bricktown its first taste of playoff basketball.
Now, color me a pessimist, but the Thunder are not going to leap into the 50-win category this year. History often repeats itself, but this will not be a redux of the 2009-10 season. Though, I would still bet on an improvement from the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Sure the Western Conference is littered with Talent, teams like the Nuggets, Clippers, and Pelicans getting healthy and looking dangerous,and the Warriors are not set to cool off, despite the embarrassing second-round exit the Suns will have one of the best records in the league again, and that is not to mention the Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Mavericks, Lakers, and Trailblazers.
Safe to say, there are hardly any gimme games, outside of Utah (pending a Donovan Mitchell trade) and San Antonio, who can OKC just roll over? Houston feels like they have just as good of a young core and the Kings are selling their souls just to get a taste of that sweet playoff nectar.
That creates a dog fight each and every night within the Thunder’s own conference. Plus, the rest of the league understands the improvements Sam Presti has made and has to respect Mark Daigneault’s coaching ability after two straight seasons of outperforming projections. With more talent on the roster, the rest of the NBA will be apprehensive to sleep-walk in Bricktown as they have the last few years. That is of course unless the hotel room ghosts keep them up at night.
So before we go off expecting a massive jump in the win total, we have to realize just how tough the majority of their games will be. With that being said, how good can this team be if the Thunder rookies splash onto the scene?
Trying to judge the impact of the OKC Thunder rookies on the team’s win total
The Oklahoma City Thunder were able to clean up in the 2022 NBA Draft, using the second overall pick on Chet Holmgren who has unicorn-like potential. While that saying is far overplayed in the NBA ecosystem, it truly fits Holmgren. His 7’1 thin frame with ball-handling, playmaking, and shooting ability provides OKC fans a ton of hope. Between the step-back triples, Dirk fades, and pick-and-pops with Josh Giddey this summer, it is easy to see why Sam Presti invested the best draft asset OKC has had since 2009 in Holmgren.
The OKC Thunder were far from over after Adam Silver announced the second overall pick, trading a trio of first-round picks for Ousmane Dieng provides a huge upside swing in the draft for Presti. With the very next selection, OKC nabbed Jalen Williams who shot 40 percent in Summer League and thrived in an off-ball scoring role an area this Thunder team needs dramatic improvement from.
With the 34th overall pick, Jaylin Williams being viewed as a flyer, the big staples of Mark Daigneault’s rotation from this rookie class are Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Adding those two into the mix of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Josh Giddey, Tre Mann, and the rest of the Thunder roster, and the win total can improve with relative ease.
However, with the tough Western Conference, and the uncertainty around what direction Sam Presti wants the team to take at the mid-way point, I think the ceiling for the win total will be somewhere in the 30s. It is incredibly hard to dramatically improve your win total, especially with the amount of come-from-behind wins OKC was afforded last year.
The Thunder’s expected win-loss last season was 21-61, in 2020-21 it was 15-37. OKC has already been playing above their skis game-to-game.
Before we see how training camp unfolds and before we see how the preseason unravels, I think the Thunder can reach 30 to 35 wins this season. When you compare that to previous seasons, that could get them close to the play-in as the tenth seed in the West each of the last eight seasons has turned in win totals of 34, 33, 34, 37, 42, 34, 33, and 39.
What is your way too early win total projection for the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2022-23 NBA statement?