3 OKC Thunder players who might not return in 2023-24 season

The NBA offseason is now the focus of the OKC Thunder and most of the teams in the NBA. Down to the Conference Semi-Finals of the postseason, all sights turn to next season besides a select few teams. So which Oklahoma City Thunder players are approaching a nerve-wracking summer?

NBA rosters change year-to-year. You will not see an organization truly run it back with 17 players. They even change within the season as we pour one out for Eugene Omoruyi, Darius Bazley, and Mike Muscala. This offseason, the OKC Thunder own one first-round pick and two second-round selections, with only see one impending free agent in the form of Dario Saric.

The OKC Thunder have a few players in danger of not returning, depending on how this offseason plays out. So who is on the chopping block for the organization?

The Oklahoma City Thunder roster is expected to take on a lot of overturns over the next few years as they continue to take on their abundance of picks. As a result, the roster construction will be tested this summer, even with just one first-round pick but two high second-round selections.

Dario Saric is the only impending free agent, and with two picks in the second round before the 40s, these second-round prospects would not accept a two-way deal, historically. So before moving past the draft, for Sam Presti to use all three selections, he would have to make a few tough decisions.

Who is on the chopping block for the OKC Thunder?

Despite being a great story, Lindy Waters III presents a difficult decision for Sam Presti.

As an obvious caveat to all of the names on this list, especially Lindy Waters III, I really enjoy talking to and covering these players. Waters III was a blast to be around from his time in the NBA G-League, where he told me he ditched the headband seen above because it was squeezing his head too much, to when he inked a standard NBA pact for the first time in his career but remained the same guy.

The hard reality is, for as much admiration as every Oklahoman has for his story, this is a business, and someone has to be the odd one(s) out. But, from growing up in Norman, going to Oklahoma State, being undrafted and playing in pro-am league in Enid, to making the G-League on a tryout, earning a two-way pact, then signing an NBA deal, no matter what happens this offseason, Waters III is a success story—someone to be proud of and celebrate in this state.

Though, his game has apparent flaws. Namely his shooting. The 25-year-old is considered this sharpshooter, and he seems to have the skills to be one, but so far in his NBA career, he shoots the trey ball at a 36 percent clip, barely above league average. Through 66 games in his career, he is averaging six points, two rebounds, and nearly an assist per game while turning in shooting splits of 40/36/80.

However, he stuck in Mark Daigneault’s rotation, even in the NBA Play-In tournament, because of his much-improved defense. Synergy tabs Waters III as a “very good” defender, ranking in the 69th percentile and allowing just 0.924 points per possession.

Defense is a hard thing to measure and understand. However, his leap was noticeable even to the casual fan at home rooting for the team. That is incredibly hard to do on that end of the floor. But he was awesome, especially as a help-side defender.

So what is his future outlook on this OKC Thunder roster? Lindy Waters III has a team option of 1.9 million dollars this offseason that Sam Presti must decide what to do with. Past that, Waters III is a restricted free agent in 2024-25 if the option is picked up for the 2023-24 campaign.

The deciding factor in that option has to come down to his shooting. Do you believe that with a summer of work and the comfortability of having a more certain future, Waters III can take a leap in three-point percentage at the NBA level as his defense did this season?

There are reasons to be optimistic that he can improve his production from beyond the arc. When coming off screens, Waters III produces 1.591 points per possession, ranking in the 100th percentile. Though, that is just 21 attempts.

According to cleaning the glass, Lindy Waters III shot 50 percent from the corners (94th percentile) and 35 percent on non-corner triples. In the mid-range, the Oklahoma State product shot 80 percent (99th percentile); at the rim, he turned in 73 percent (84th percentile).

Ultimately, there are a lot of signs pointing to Lindy Waters III’s job being safe this summer, despite how easy it is for them to move on from him financially, but there are still tough decisions to be made for the OKC Thunder.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl was once considered a solid back-up big for the OKC Thunder, but now he is outcasted by many.

This time last year, the OKC Thunder fanbase collectively celebrated another heist that Sam Presti pulled off in the NBA Draft. Feeling good about Josh Giddey’s historic rookie season, recounting that Aaron Wiggins was the 55th overall pick though he looks like a contributor, and relieving the bucket-getting highlights from Tre Mann’s first campaign, everything felt great.

Because Jeremiah Robinson-Earl seemed to be a vital cog of the Oklahoma City Thunder rotation for years to come, the Villanova product played in 49 games as a rookie, making 36 starts and averaging seven points, five rebounds, an assist, and nearly a steal per game. In addition, Robinson-Earl posted 41 percent from the floor and 35 percent from beyond the arc.

His promising floor-spacing ability with serviceable defense, blending with his high-end playmaking, excited many fans. The Thunder hired the best shooting coach in the league with another summer of development that saw Jeremiah Robinson-Earl get noticeably bigger. That left expectations high.

In year two, though, the former second-round pick took a step back, going for six points, four rebounds, and an assist per game. He improved to 44 percent from the floor but dipped to 33 percent from distance on fewer attempts per game.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl continues to struggle to finish at the rim (55 percent), from the mid-range (60 percent), on corner triples (31 percent), and non-corner three-point attempts (34 percent).

Synergy grades Robinson-Earl out to be an average defender who thrives when placed in zone concepts and actually blitzes pick-and-roll ball handlers exceptionally well.

Ultimately, Mark Daigneault and Sam Presti have stressed they want internal competition throughout this rebuild, with the understanding that not everyone will make it.

Robinson-Earl’s contract being non-guaranteed for this upcoming season and a team option the following season makes him an easy target should push come to shove. However, it is important to note how often we see a leap in years two to three instead of one to two. While also warning how the server ankle sprain hindered him since December.

Is it time for the OKC Thunder to give up on a former first-round pick in Tre Mann? Does the carousal move this fast?

Tre Mann was a first-round pick back in the 2021 NBA Draft and quickly became a fan favorite as a rookie. As offense was hard to come by at times for that iteration of the Thunder, Mann was a pure microwave scorer who could get hot at a moment’s notice and fill it up.

As a rookie, Mann averaged ten points, three rebounds, an assist, and a steal per game while shooting 39 percent from the floor and 36 percent from beyond the arc in 60 games. His age-20 season was highlighted by that 35-point outing against Boston that featured seven made triples, seven rebounds, and four assists.

Then, Tre Mann struggled in Summer League before having a stellar preseason, where he scored at an effective clip and showed dramatic defensive improvement.

Ultimately, the offense was not sustained. Instead, he regressed in year two. This season, Tre Mann averaged seven points, two rebounds, an assist, and half a steal per game while shooting 39 percent from the floor again but seeing a five percent dip beyond the arc.

Though, Tre Mann has already admitted he needs to improve this summer. Some signs point to a breakout season happening in 2023-24.

Tre Mann is owed all of his 3.1 million dollars in 2023-24, with a club option the next season of 4.9 million dollars. So for him to no longer be rostered by the OKC Thunder, they likely need to work out a trade. While eating 3.1 million dollars is common, especially with the amount of cap space OKC has this summer, working out a trade or keeping Mann around could be more efficient.

His contract situation makes me think he will be in Bricktown in October and banking on a breakout.