3 teams that could give the Thunder trouble in first round of playoffs

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been trading the Western Conference crown back and forth with the Timberwolves for the last couple of weeks. Denver has climbed, while the Clippers have stumbled.

With a little over a month remaining in the season, it feels safe to say that the Thunder will wind up finishing among the top three seeds in the west.

Typically, when you’re near the top of your conference, it means you get an easier first-round playoff matchup. Not an easy matchup, mind you, for, after all, this is still the playoffs but teams get a dime-a-dozen scrappy opponents. One who could win a game or two, but ultimately just ends up a footnote on the way to a longer playoff run. 

This year, that might not be the case.

There seem to be some heavy-hitting teams lurking around the bottom of the Western Conference playoff race, some of which have already given the Thunder trouble during the regular season.

Could Thunder stumble in the first round against a more physical team?

Oklahoma City has a unique roster construction and style of play. They emphasize skill first and foremost, scaling back on size so that every player can shoot, pass, and handle. This strategy has obviously worked for them so far considering their placement out in the west while sporting the youngest roster weighted by playing time. 

However, the problem is that this strategy has weaknesses. If OKC is going to have a conference finals appearance ahead of them, they may need some seeding luck at the end of the season. 

With this in mind, as we gear up for the playoffs, there are a few of teams, in particular, that could threaten the Thunder in a first-round matchup.

Dallas Mavericks

Although the Mavericks have been nosediving lately, going 2-5 since All-Star Weekend, they still could pose a serious threat to the Thunder in the playoffs. I’d be lying if I said the beatdown Dallas laid on OKC back on February 10th wasn’t part of the reason that the Mavs made this list.

That 146-111 drubbing laid bare what Dallas is capable of when everything is clicking.

The Mavs have two bonafide stars in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Their center rotation of Lively and Gafford allows them 48 minutes worth of lob threats and rim protection. Oklahoma City is more skilled, but Dallas has size and athleticism over the Thunder.

Dallas does have a unique issue, which is to say that their greatest asset may also be their greatest liability. Luka Doncic is the engine that makes Dallas run, as he has led the NBA in usage for the past five seasons. His ball dominance is just shy of the Russell Westbrook MVP season. 

In their recent skid, Doncic has been putting up wild statistical performances, highlighted by consecutive 30-point triple-doubles.

However, interestingly enough, the team as a whole isn’t succeeding. Dallas suffers from an offensive approach that lacks balance and is predictable as a result and, though Doncic has improved as a defender, one should hesitate to say he ranks highly on that end of the floor.

The Thunder have a couple more opportunities this season to play the Mavericks and determine what sort of approach they’ll take in a potential playoff matchup. In their last meeting, Dort was Doncic’s primary defender. If OKC tries to adjust, would they also consider putting Jalen Williams on Doncic?

Showing more length on Luka could keep him from getting as many good looks from deep, and Dort can still be effective guarding the smaller Kyrie Irving. 

I would still take the Thunder over the Mavericks in a playoff series. There is always a chance, though, that Doncic goes supernova for two weeks and OKC is sent home earlier than expected.

Because of their high-end star power, there are certainly other teams the Thunder might rather face than the Dallas Mavericks. 

Phoenix Suns

A few nights back, the Phoenix Suns gave the Denver Nuggets just their sixth home loss of the season, a little reminder for the rest of the league that the Suns can be a contender.

The scoring output of Durant, Booker, and Beal is as strong as any trio across the NBA. Sure, their bench is spotty, but rotations will tighten in the playoffs, leaving a superstar on the floor at any given time for the Suns. 

That is, of course, if the stars are healthy.

Phoenix sold the farm to build this star-studded roster, but have only seen their top trio play in 23 games together. They’ve had luck with Durant and Nurkic’s health, but have missed Booker and Beal with minor injuries. 

In Oklahoma City’s recent matchup against Phoenix, they committed to doubling Kevin Durant. This strategy was especially effective because Booker was out for the game, so Phoenix was already facing a dearth of playmaking. Without Booker setting the table, and with Durant being hounded like he was, OKC was able to score 31 points off turnovers.

Oklahoma City is 2-0 so far against the Suns this season but, notably, neither of those games featured Devin Booker. Last season, the Suns star averaged 34.3 points per game versus OKC and Phoenix went 3-1 in the process. 

To be clear, this is a very different Thunder team from last year. But the fact remains that Devin Booker can single-handedly win games for Phoenix. In last season’s first-round matchup versus the Clippers, Booker averaged 37.2 points per game, while shooting 60.2 percent from the field and 46.7 percent from deep.

Good luck stopping that. 

The Thunder are capable of beating Phoenix, even when at full strength, but this is a series that could easily go seven games. Defensive rotations would need to be razor-sharp if OKC chooses to double Durant. Having strong on-ball defenders like Dort and J-Dub is encouraging, but the Phoenix scoring attack can overwhelm even the best defense. 

In addition, the Thunder would need to make Phoenix pay on defense for playing the lumbering Jusuf Nurkic. Whether that means more three-point attempts for Holmgren, or just playing Giddey less, one wonders what buttons Daigneault will push to punish the Suns and their drop coverage.

All in all, the Thunder likely wouldn’t want to meet Phoenix in the first round. Like with Dallas, OKC is capable of winning, but the margin for error is even slimmer here than in a potential Mavericks series.

The reward of sending Durant home from the playoffs would be sweet, but the Thunder would rather see Phoenix match up with Denver or Minnesota than themselves.

Los Angeles Lakers

We all knew this was going to be here. How could it not be?

The Lakers won the season series 3-1 against the Thunder and outrebounded OKC in each of their three wins. They are the ideal team that pundits think of when they make the case that OKC needs more size. On top of this, Los Angeles is climbing up the conference standings toward locking in a seventh or eighth seed. 

The Lakers eliminated the Warriors last season in the second round of the playoffs. They were able to take down the defending champs because they were a more physically imposing team even though Golden State had the skill advantage, with players who can shoot, pass, and dribble filling out much of their roster. 

Does that sound familiar?

Obviously, the Thunder have plenty of differences from the Warriors of last year, but the blueprint is there for the Lakers: physicality.

What was the 13th overall defense in the regular season leaped up to fourth in the playoffs. The Lakers know how to turn it on when it matters the most. 

Anthony Davis is as strong a rim deterrent as any in the league. You could see Thunder players visibly recoiling away from attacking the rim in their last matchup. Jarred Vanderbilt is long enough to guard any forward and quick enough to stay with any guard. LeBron James isn’t the defender he once was, but he’s sturdy and can still time interceptions that lead to transition buckets. 

A playoff series against the Lakers could be a nightmare for the Thunder. But it could also be a chance at vindication.

All season, the narrative around the Thunder has been that they need more size and that they're too young to contend. If the Thunder managed to outlast the Lakers, overcoming the physicality and experience of Los Angeles, that could be the confidence boost they need to carry them through a deep playoff run. 

A chance to silence the critics. How sweet that would feel. Still, the Thunder would likely still rather face another team like the Kings.