As the most decorated teenager in European basketball history prepares for the NBA draft, questions about how Luka Doncic can translate to the American game have sparked an interesting debate about the way we evaluate prospects.
Luka Doncic has become somewhat of an NBA Rorschach test. Depending on how you look at him, you might see one of the next great wings, capable of leading an elite offense with high-level playmaking, crafty shot creation, and stellar efficiency.
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Or you might see him as another Euro bust. Too soft and un-athletic to handle the rigor of the NBA. Overwhelmed by the physicality and skill in the States.
It’s just as possible you see him as nothing more than a slightly above-average role player who, while not a bust, definitely doesn’t deserve to sniff the number one pick.
Either way, his accomplishments overseas are undeniable.
At 19 he became the youngest MVP in Euroleague history (which is no small feat). In last summer’s EuroBasket, he and Goran Dragic led Slovenia to a gold medal. At this event, Luka Doncic earned All-Tournament team honors. And, he’s received accolades nearly every year of his career as a professional basketball player.
Whether his success in Europe can translate to the United States is the question on everyone’s mind as we make our way through the draft process.
Specifics:
Height: 6’8″
Weight: 228 lbs.
Wingspan: N/A
Position: Guard
Age: 19 years old
Team: Real Madrid
Stats:
- 14.5 points per game
- 5.2 rebounds per game
- 4.6 assists per game
- shooting 45.9% from the field
- 30.9% from three
- 80.1% from the free throw line.
Hometown: Ljubljana, Slovenia
Strengths:
Playmaking
While Doncic’s scoring is certainly nothing to scoff at, it’s his passing that truly sets him apart. He’s established himself as one of the best playmakers in Europe. Doncic finished in the top-15 in assists per game for two consecutive seasons. His vision and feel as a passer are nothing short of spectacular. And, with his size (6’8″), he can find openings that smaller point guards simply can’t.
Furthermore, he flashed unique prowess in the pick-and-roll and his game in those situations should translate quite nicely with NBA spacing. Just watch his patience in the possession below to find the right man, make a read not many players can make, and execute when the timing is just right:
He may never be a superstar point guard. Yet, his playmaking ability should make him a viable option on offense over his pro career.
Crafty Scorer
As a scorer, Doncic showcased enticing potential this year. Luka Doncic could be a secondary or maybe even primary option at some point down the line. He’s not an elite athlete nor does his first step blow by anyone, but he still was one of the craftiest young players in the world.
He used an interesting blend of stellar footwork, creative ball-handling and unique feel for the game to score a relatively efficient 14.5 points per game this year. The play below is almost emblematic of the creativity we’ve come to expect from Doncic as a scorer:
But he still has limitations.
He’s below-average athletically and although his mechanics are fundamentally sound and he’s a decent spot-up shooter, he still shot just 30.9% from three this year. Moreover, he doesn’t quite have the shake in his game you’d expect from a lead ball-handler, especially one this highly touted.
Doncic flashed tantalizing promise this year as a scorer. Still, he has a way to go before he can be the all-around threat offensively he needs to be to overcome his weaknesses.
Weaknesses:
Athleticism/Conditioning
Despite his feel and skill level offensively, it’s fair to wonder how well his game will be able to translate given how out of shape and un-athletic he looks at times. Even in his highlights, he appears noticeably slower than we’re used to seeing from a potential first overall draft pick. It’s possible that, like some on Twitter have theorized, by putting him in on an NBA training regimen and into the labs of touted companies like P3 training, he could develop as an athlete.
But it’s just as possible he can’t get much more athletic than his current state. And if he can’t become a better athlete, it’s absolutely critical he maxes out skill-wise offensively.
That’s what makes evaluating Luka such a difficult task. Clearly, his floor is above average, but given his athletic limitations, his ceiling might be lower than some would like to admit.
Honors and Awards:
Čudežni otrok means wunderkind in Slovenian, but given his already sprawling resume at such a young age, they should seriously consider changing it to “Luka Doncic.” As I’ve mentioned before, he has a staggering list of accomplishments, ranging from Euroleague MVP to EuroBasket All-Tournament Teams to Rising-Stars style accolades. Seriously, the dude has won everything in Europe.
Pro Comparison:
Because Doncic is such a unique player, his comparisons are wonky. I’ve heard everything from big Manu Ginobli to small Nikola Jokic to Hedo Turkoglu, but honestly, Doncic reminds me of an ultra-poor man’s Larry Bird. Before you close your laptop in justifiable anger that I compared a 19-year old Slovenian wing to one of the greatest players to ever grace the court, hear me out. I’m going to describe a player to you and I want you to think of who this reminds you of.
A tall, un-athletic, immensely talented offensive wing coming off of a championship victory with a flair for the dramatic who leveraged their way onto the team of their choice in the draft process by threatening to hold out for another year.
I’m not saying that Doncic will even come close to matching Bird as a player, but the parallels are interesting.
Ranking:
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DraftExpress/ESPN: 2nd
Fit with OKC Thunder:
In terms of how ultra poor-man’s Larry Bird fits on the Thunder, both he and the team could do better for their own individual success. While Doncic is a decent off-ball player, it would significantly hinder his development to watch Russell Westbrook take 30 shots a game while he sits around and waits for the ball.
On the flip side, the Thunder probably should be targeting wings like Lonnie Walker and Troy Brown Jr. rather than ball-dominant guards like Doncic who will take the ball out of Russ’ hands. If I were Sam Presti, I wouldn’t give up too much for Luka unless I’m preparing for a full-scale rebuild in 2019.
As of right now, Doncic is everywhere in the mock drafts. Some people have him going as high as the first pick and some have him slipping out of the top five altogether. Again, it all depends on how you evaluate prospects. In my opinion, he likely won’t slip past Atlanta at number three given the significant drop-off between the first tier (Doncic and DeAndre Ayton) and the rest of the field.
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Luka Doncic is by no means a perfect player, but if you’re a team looking for a safe prospect to potentially boost your franchise, look no further than the Slovenian.