In an NBA Draft class full of talented bigs Arizona freshman Deandre Ayton is the definitive top ranked prospect.
The current NBA trio of star bigs have reason to be concerned NBA Draft top prospect Deandre Ayton could end up as the best center of their era. Deandre Ayton resides at the top of most national prospect ranking lists. First of all, this position is well deserved as the Arizona center defines what most in the business consider necessary from big men in the new era of basketball.
If last year’s draft was chock full of talent rich guards, then 2018 is the year of the big man and Ayton is best of this group.
Generational big man:
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Yet, his selection as the top pick isn’t a foregone conclusion given a couple of factors. First of all, his greatest competition comes from a player who may well be the next great European player of his generation.
Luka Doncic for some, is the type of player you cannot ignore, but so too is a big of Ayton’s prowess.
Consequently, three other bigs are making things interesting at the top of the board. That’s because Marvin Bagley III and Jaren Jackson Jr.’s workouts and interviews are lending credence to their long term potential.
And, there is Mohamed Bamba who delivered such jaw dropping measurements at the combine the top three spots are in constant flux. One thing is certain, most lotteries will shift until the final moments. Need I remind, neither Michael Jordan or Kevin Durant were the top picks of their class.
With that, let’s dive into Deandre Ayton and examine why he’s earned the accolades as the best big in a draft laden with talented bigs.
Specifics:
Height: 7-foot
Weight: 243 pounds
Wingspan: 7’44 inches
Position: Center
Age: 19.8
College: Arizona Wildcats, freshman
Home Town: Nassau, Bahamas
Stat-line (per game):
- Points: 20.1
- Rebounds: 11.6
- Assists: 1.6
- Blocks: 1.9
- Field Goal Shooting Efficiency: 61.2 percent
- Perimeter Shooting Efficiency: 34.3 percent
- Free Throw Shooting Efficiency: 73.3 percent
Skills:
Deandre Ayton pre-draft hype is well warranted. Examination of the new generation of big men who currently dominate the NBA points to players like Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis. Each of this trio has certain commonalities and each has specific areas of weakness. Due to the fact Ayton will be compared to these players upon entry to the NBA, it makes sense to offer some early comparisons.
Perimeter Prowess:
Although all three can spread the floor to the perimeter there is an interesting gap among them. Hence, Towns shot 25 percent in college, and is the best of the trio as a pro (42.1`%). Embiid shot 20 percent from the perimeter in college, and consequently is the least effective from range in the trio (30.8%). Porzingis falls in the middle with a 39.5 percent perimeter efficiency and was the best coming into the pros with a 35.9 percent efficiency.
In this regard Ayton is already ahead of Towns and Embiid not just in his efficiency (34.3%), but also in his attempts (1.0 per game versus 0.2). The litmus test many clubs use to determine how effective a player become from the perimeter is their free throw efficiency. Again, both Towns and Porzingis pre NBA efficiency from the charity stripe was a decent harbinger for their eventual success, as was Embiid’s weakness in this area. Again, Ayton leans toward the positive.
Offensive Versatility:
Yet, it’s in two other areas where Ayton projects to give the trio a run for their money. His overall efficiency from the field points to a more versatile offensive ability. Of the comparison’s Embiid is the best in the post, but Ayton displays prowess in this area with the ability to use either hand and demonstrates decent playmaking ability.
Ayton brings sheer athleticism to the court. Additionally, for a big man Ayton is particularly light and quick on his feet. Once inside the perimeter Ayton gains multiple options to score at the rim. These include drives, utilizing his excellent footwork or his length for lobs or offensive rebounding.
Defensive potential:
Again, of the young trio comparison Ayton’s rebounding is light years ahead of his counterparts. In terms of blocks both Towns and Embiid were slightly better than Ayton in College. In the right system it should be assumed he’ll become an elite rim protector, but this isn’t guaranteed as his weaknesses attest to.
Weaknesses:
Although the ceiling projects positively, the biggest knock on Ayton is his defense. Therefore, like most young bigs he’ll need to improve his pick and roll defensive acumen. Another area of concern is based on his size and athletic ability his shot-blocking is sub par. Once again however, in view of the comparison to the current trio, Porzingis was well behind in this regard and improved dramatically once in the league.
The double edge sword of youth also pops up in the weakness category. Deandre Ayton has demonstrated moments where he lacks focus, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. In truth unless the prospect is arriving as a defensive specialist this is something which should be expected from a young big.
As Ayton develops at the pro level he’ll need to learn how to maintain focus and intensity and channel Embiid rather than Towns defensively.
Upside:
Examination of Deandre Ayton’s ability, potential ceiling and two-way ability offer substance for why clubs are salivating over his pro entry. Ultimately, the trio he’ll set his sights on may have ample reason to worry, Ayton feels like the modern day version of Boogie Cousins, albeit with a far more appealing demeanor. Given Ayton’s agility and lightness on his feet another natural role model for him is Hakeem Olajuwon.
Ironically, if the Suns end up reuniting Doncic with his former coach you can bet Kings Vlade Divac will be delighted to pick Ayton with the second pick. This in itself is humorous given how much Ayton resembles Cousins. Not to mention, Divac has been trying to select a big man for years now who’ll measure up to his belief in their abilities. Deandre Ayton would undoubtedly be able to deliver in this regard.
Current rankings:
Although not the consensus number one draft choice, Ayton holds the top spot on more lists than any of his counterparts.
- DraftExpress/ESPN: 1st
- NBA DraftNet: 1st
- CBS Sports:1st
- Sports Illustrated: 1st
- Bleacher Report: 2nd
- Basketball Insiders: 1st
- The Ringer Kevin O’Connor: 2nd
Honors and Awards
- First Team All-American (2018 consensus selection)
- Naismith Award Finalist (2018)
- Pac-12 Conference Player of Year (2018)
- Pac-12 Freshman of the Year (2018)
- USBWA Player of Year Finalist (2018)
- Pac-12 Tournament, Most Outstanding Player (2018)
- Wooden Award Finalist (2018)
- Karl Malone Award (2018)
- Jordan Brand Classic (2017)
- McDonald’s All-American (2017)
Pro Comparison:
Kevin O’Connor offers three big men up as Ayton’s comparison: Patrick Ewing, Karl-Anthony Towns and DeMarcus Cousins. In addition, DraftNet offers Ayton comparisons to Sean Kemp and David Robinson. The mix of this quintet seems odd on first glance. Ewing was a beast in the post, but was a pro prior to the perimeter big man era. Conversely, KAT is the new era big , but needs to develop his post game. While Sean Kemp was a physical specimen who alongside Gary Payton gave pick and roll new meaning. And, recalling David Robinson his overall game (like his twin tower partner Tim Duncan) was fundamentally brilliant.
Cousins dominates both inside and outside the paint and is a solid rebounder. Ignoring his penchant for pouting, Cousins pre-injury was arguably the best center in the NBA.
The overriding takeaway is the fact Ayton is being compared to these five uber talents. It speaks to how highly regarded Ayton is and what he projects to be in the pros – a superstar. From my perspective Ayton best channels the Cousins’ comparison sans the attitude.
Granted college doesn’t necessarily mean immediate transference of skillsets to the NBA. But, Ayton already appears to possess more versatility in his game than Towns, simply because of his paint ability.
The Fit:
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With Phoenix selecting first, another added level of uncertainty exists. Proximity has allowed the Suns brain trust to get possibly the best view of Ayton’s in his tenure as a Wildcat. However, the hiring of Igor Kokoskov as the Suns new head coach offers even greater intrigue.
Although Suns GM Ryan McDonough toyed with the Combine panel Phoenix would be open to moving the first round pick, don’t believe it for one second. Consequently, this is a watershed moment for the franchise as they land the top pick for the first time in history. Moreover, with what feels like a can’t miss of two top draft choices in areas they need help the Suns will keep the pick.
Still, with Devin Booker on the precipice of super stardom the Suns greatest need still lies in the frontcourt and as such Deandre Ayton is the logical pick. But, who says drafts have to follow logic? Just ask Bryan Colangelo if he had it to do over whether he would still make the trade with Danny Ainge in order to select Markelle Fultz with the top pick.
Hindsight is 20-20 and right up until the moment Adam Silver approaches the microphone on June 21st it’s likely not even Deandre Ayton or Luka Doncic will know which name will be uttered.
Next: Luka Doncic prospect profile: Human Rorschach Test
Given that fact, there isn’t much use in looking at how Ayton would fit on the Thunder. Let’s face it he’ll be a great addition wherever he lands. But, short of the sky falling it’s not a situation Sam Presti will need to ponder.