What NBA return format is best option for OKC Thunder?

Tamberlyn Richardson

JANUARY 22: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the OKC Thunder facing off with Nikola Vucevic #9 and Evan Fournier #10 of the Orlando Magic (Photo by Harry Aaron/Getty Images)

With the NBA set to cement what format they’ll utilize when gameplay resumes which format is the best-case scenario for the OKC Thunder?

The big news from the NBA this past week was the expectation for a return to action at the end of July. As for the format, this coming Thursday the Board of Governors will vote on the plan Adam Silver suggests. Although there are four options only three are being considered seriously. The OKC Thunder have a vested interest in a specific format (more on that below).

Throughout the hiatus, the league considered various formats they could employ to finish the season and playoffs. Although the COVID-19 pandemic isn’t raging with the same intensity it isn’t completely wiped away.

For that reason, the league needs to be cautious in terms of how they proceed and how many teams they bring back. This created the need for using only one or two venues in a campus-style bubble environment. Las Vegas, Houston, and Orlando were considered but Walt Disney World in Orlando appears to be the site with the big edge to host.

In terms of the four formats, the one option which is off the table is bringing back all 30 teams. It doesn’t make sense to expose extra players if they have no shot of reaching the finals. Moreover, fewer teams reduce the number of tests required and lessen the number of people being consistently exposed to each other.

On the opposite side of the equation only bringing back the 16 playoff squads presents its own set of issues. The season suspension began March 11th shortly after the OKC Thunder – Utah Jazz game was postponed. Therefore, next week will mark three months of inactivity for players and teams. Projected start dates for the 2020-21 season are late December. That means any teams who don’t participate in the return would be off the court for more than nine months. Certainly not an ideal situation so the league needs to find a balance between these two options.

That leaves the two options of bringing back 20 teams or 22 teams. Both scenarios include the 16 current seeds and the four Western clubs within four games of the Grizzlies (Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs). The second option of 22 teams includes teams within six games of the eighth seed which would include the Wizards in the East and the Suns in the West.

The big difference in the two scenarios is how the season would play out. The 20 team format would employ the round-robin group bracket format whereas the 22 team format would play a certain number of games and then have a play-in tournament to determine the final seeds.

Again, health becomes a determining factor. Teams have indicated they are worried about getting in enough games prior to the playoffs while also avoiding unnecessary injuries. Shaking off the rust is a part of this but more important is easing players back and slowly increasing their minutes. Plus it behooves the league to have exciting, quality games and that’s not what we’ll get initially after this long of a hiatus.

The final part of the decision is whether the playoff teams are seeded by league rank or conference rank.

The big question is what direction will Adam Silver take? And, more importantly…

What is the best format for the OKC Thunder?

As each day passed each of the four options seemingly became the preferred option of teams and media analysts. In the early days, bringing back the 16 seeds was the preferred option. In truth, that’s the best option for the OKC Thunder because it would mean facing the Utah Jazz.

The reason that’s desirable (as we’ve previously noted) is the Jazz is the perfect matchup for OKC. That thinking only gained momentum given the potential drama and rift between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert which could affect the team’s chemistry. Then factor in the loss of Bojan Bogdanovic who is a core offensive contributor and floor spacer. But, as per above, that’s unlikely to be the choice of Silver.

20 team group bracket format:

The 20 team format is an undesirable option for the Thunder. Sitting in fifth and ninth overall it places OKC in the third tier. If the groups were placed under the top four seeds based on their league standing the brackets would look like this:

Bucks Group: Heat, 76ers, Magic, Spurs

Lakers Group: Jazz, Pacers, Nets, Kings

Raptors Group: Nuggets, Rockets, Grizzlies, Pelicans

Clippers Group: Celtics, Thunder, Mavericks, Blazers

If the brackets were separated in this manner the Thunder would be in what we could term the group of death. It would be a very tough path for the Thunder to be one of the top two teams in this group to advance to the second round. And the Clippers wouldn’t be happy with this set up either since they would get the best team from each tier. The Lakers, not the Bucks would get the easy bracket and could virtually breeze through.

There is the alternative of having the four top seeds draft their bracket or conduct a lottery bingo ball draw. While there are pros and cons to this format, again, it’s not ideal.

Silver was said to be keen on this option and of course many in the media love this option because of the upset potential. The odds still favor the top seeds, however, getting to the second round would require more effort from teams in the tougher brackets (again – giving the Lakers a huge advantage).

Let’s assume the Thunder could get out of the group play. It’s likely each of the top four seeds would advance and likely the second-tier teams, for the most part, would also advance. That means the Thunder would have to play the Bucks (if seeded by league) or Lakers if seeded by the conference. Again, not ideal.

22 team format:

After the Thursday and Friday conference calls with the GMs and BOGs the format of 22 teams was leaked as the preference. In this scenario, teams would play some more regular-season games followed by a play-in tournament of the bottom teams to determine presumably the seventh and eighth seeds. Again, whether Silver used a league rank or conference rank would affect the final outcome.

More from Thunderous Intentions

Of the three options on the table, this is the most desirable for the Thunder and has gained the most momentum of late. The best part of this scenario is it allows teams to change their seeding via the regular-season games played and not just the bottom bubble seeds.

For the Thunder, they could surpass a number of teams. A rested Chris Paul and Steven Adams should help enable the team to have a great shot at getting to the second round at a minimum.

As a Thunder fan getting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as much postseason experience is also at the top of the checklist. And, for those who want to build for the further having Dennis Schroder produce in the playoffs will only serve to increase his trade value. And let’s face it if Sam Presti is going to trade him doing so with one year on his contract would be the best time to do so.

In the West, they trail the Jazz by one game, Nuggets by 2.5 games, and the Clippers by four games. If league seeding is used OKC could set their sights on the Heat by a half-game and the Celtics by three. That’s five teams they could potentially vault past. Is it reasonable to assume they would? In truth, the Clippers are likely out of reach and probably the Celtics but the other three teams could definitely be caught.

Conversely, finishing in the 11th seed would guarantee they keep their draft pick so the option to actively lose some games is also on the table.

Best case for OKC Thunder:

The current momentum is for the 22 teams to participate and this is the better of the two options for OKC. It’s unlikely the Thunder will try to lose their way into 11th to retain the draft pick but at least they’ll have that choice.

Of greater importance is the team’s ability to move up the ladder. As noted there are at least two or three teams within their grasp and depending on the number of regular-season games the league decides upon they could move up several rungs.