Thunderous Intentions Roundtable: 2014-2015 Season Is Upon Us
Five days. We are officially five days from the tip-off of the 2014-2015 NBA Season.
I know, it feels like yesterday the Thunder lost to the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. The time for revenge is here, and if this time doesn’t get you excited, I don’t know what will.
The team here at Thunderous Intentions sat down to answer five questions predicting who X-Factors, end results, and more:
1. Who do you see being the X-Factor in 2014-2015?
Mark Bruty: It has to come from the bench and I think it has to be Jeremy Lamb. He has all the talent in the world and has shown it sporadically over the past three seasons. Now is his time to put it all together and shine. With KD being out, his skill set and outside shooting is even more important and having been in the system for three years now, there are no more excuses. If he can do a little bit of everything and have the odd brilliant game when required then the Thunder would be very happy with that. He had a great first half of last season and then Caron Butler came along and it dropped off. There are no issues this time – put the keys in the ignition, put the foot to the floor and let’s get racing Lambo!
Eli J. Friedman: Anthony Morrow. If you look at any previous championship team, you will notice how many shooters they had. Pat Riley did such a great job surrounding D-Wade and LeBron with shooters, which ending up being the X-Factor for their back-to-back championship run. Ray Allen, Shane Battier and James Jones spread the floor for Miami, and allowed LeBron and D-Wade to drive-and-kick for open threes. Anthony Morrow can be that guy for the Thunder. If he shoots the ball well this year, it could be huge for Oklahoma City and help Westbrook, Jackson and Durant out big time.
Zach Collums: I don’t usually consider potential starters as x-factors, mostly because my definition of a x-factor is a player that is essential to a team’s success who isn’t assumed to be essential. But Steven Adams is a different story. Ask any coach or former player what the thunder is missing and a post scoring threat will most likely be one of the answers. Without a post threat, defending teams can spend more time clogging the perimeter, where players like KD and Westbrook live. Adams has the potential to change that.
Evan Riggs: With Kevin Durant’s injury, I see Anthony Morrow as the X-Factor this season. He is the only guy on the Thunder’s roster who shot a higher percentage (45.1%) than Durant (39.1%) from three-point range. So far this preseason, Morrow is 8-for-14 from beyond the arc, and has made all 14 of his field goal attempts. Without Durant, the Thunder will rely on Morrow’s shooting to help replace Durant’s scoring output.
Sam Livingston: With or without Durant getting hurt, Serge Ibaka is going to be a huge X-Factor. Yes he’s a star already and yes everyone knows he’s going to make an impact, but it’s his development on the offensive end that has a chance to turn this team into an elite offensive force. If Ibaka’s improvement over the years is any indication, he’s going to get significantly better this season again and it probably is going to be in the form of better shot creation or post-game. Ibaka’s ability to become to take the next step and become an even bigger offensive threat can shoot the Thunder even farther up to the contender list.
2. Who is going to start at the two-spot?
Bruty: Having watched the pre-season it would appear that Scott Brooks is going to want to keep some firepower with the reserve unit. So, I doubt the answer is Reggie Jackson even though if the Thunder want to keep him long-term it might be the better choice. However, I think Brooks will slide Roberson over to the small forward spot and start Anthony Morrow at shooting guard. I also think it might vary nightly depending on matchup. Perry Jones might get the nod on some occasions and even Jeremy Lamb could be called on to start – but I would think more often than not we are looking at some form of Westbrook / Roberson / Morrow scenario.
Friedman: Ultimately, I’ve got to go with Reggie Jackson. He’s been waiting for his moment for a little while now, and here it is. He is going to start at the two and make a big impact, especially with Durant out early on. On Media Day, he mentioned wanting to be “great” and starters are “great,” so he clearly wants the spot. If he doesn’t, then he has to shot to win 6th man of the year, but in general, I see him starting.
Collums: As far as strategy goes, my prediction is that Andre Roberson will start at the two-guard position over Jackson. The reason being simply put, Defense. Roberson has shone to be a much better defender, especially around the perimeter. Also, coach Scott Brooks has shown to obsess over having a defensive presence in the two-guard spot regardless of offense (Thabo Sefolosha) and with Roberson being a much younger and agile version of Thabo, it will tough for Brooks to say no to starting Roberson. That isn’t to say Roberson will have more minutes,however. Jackson will still have many more minutes than Roberson, but that will be enough to keep Jackson happy remains to be seen.
Riggs: Before Durant got hurt, even though I said Jackson should start, I thought Andre Roberson was going to get the job. Now, I think Reggie Jackson has to be the starting shooting guard, right? When you lose 32 ppg to injury, you have to insert your best offensive player in to help soften the blow, and that is clearly Jackson. Roberson will play small forward, so the Thunder will still have a defensive minded player starting on the perimeter. It may be tougher to stagger the lineups to play Jackson with the second unit, but Sebastian Telfair has looked decent this preseason. Also, Jackson has talked about wanting to be an all-time great all offseason, so I can’t imagine he would have a problem playing more minutes in order to play with the second unit some too.
Livingston: At this point, I just don’t see the two-guard spot not going to Andre Roberson. His strong play on both ends of the floor coupled with Jeremy Lamb’s struggles means the writing is on the wall. While Roberson is not the best shooter he is becoming a good all-around player and has the ability to do everything else. He is a great defender, rebounder, cutter, and finisher which outweighs the negatives of his shooting. Lamb and Anthony Morrow’s skill sets are more suited to the bench and Morrow’s best chance to start is probably at small forward while Durant is out. The Thunder continue to hype Roberson making it sound like he is the strong favorite to start.
3. Will Steven Adams finally take Kendrick Perkins’ spot?
Bruty: If Steven Adams can stay out of foul trouble then Adams might end up being the starter for the second half of the season. However, much like the shooting guard scenario, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Big Kiwi start a few games here and there. Either way, it won’t likely matter because Adams is going to definitely see a significant increase on his 15 minutes of action last season. Whether that is as a starter I am not sold on – but he could impact the game as part of the second unit and add offensive balance to the team as well.
Friedman: Only one can hope, right? Steven Adams is only in his sophomore season in the league, but he plays like a veteran. He’s so productive on the floor, and can actually finish around the rim. Perkins will probably start to open up the year, but as the season progresses, look for Adams to take his spot or at least play starter minutes.
Collums: Adams showed no fear going against some of the best in the league on the court while finding the ability to piss off some of the more well known players in the league by simply playing with great effort and not conceding out of fear. He also showed that he had the potential to become a scoring threat for the OKC, both in general and in the post. The one knock against him, though, was his ability to pick fouls up quickly. Now, there is no more potential with Adams. He has become a serious scoring advantage for the Thunder, even if the only proof is a few preseason games. And yes, he still does foul quite a bit, but when he can score 14 points in a quarter in two straight games, OKC might only need him for a quarter.
Riggs: Yes. Adams has shown too much growth this preseason to keep him out of the starting role any longer. In four games, he has averaged 17 ppg, 6.5 rbg and 1.7 bpg in just under 25 minutes a game. In the third preseason game against Memphis, Adams and Westbrook looked great in the pick-and-roll. Even with Durant, the defensive-minded starting five of the past couple of years has struggled, so Brooks has to start his five best available players. I think Adams is primed for a big leap in production this year, and I expect him to average more than 10 points a game. Perkins still has the role of defending power post players, but if not starting is a problem for him, his expiring contract is valuable enough that he could be traded.
Livingston: Steven Adams is going to be the Oklahoma City Thunder’s starting center this year. Scoot Brooks admitted early on that the center spot is an open competition and Adams is running away with it. Perkins hasn’t been able to get on the floor at all due to a quad injury and while he’s been sitting out, Adams has been absolutely going off. He has established himself as a legitimate shot-blocker and scoring threat consistently. Adams has scored in double figures every game this preseason and has been blocking shots left and right. His only problem has been his continued foul trouble but if the youngster has shown anything in his one-year tenure, it is that he is a quick learner and can get this problem fixed. Again like Roberson, Adams’ negatives are far outweighed by his overwhelming positives.
4. What are we going to see this year that we haven’t seen any other years from this Thunder squad?
Bruty: Low post scoring and perimeter defense / shooting. The Thunder have often struggled to score from the low block. KD doesn’t do it all that often and we all know Perks limitations. Serge Ibaka has tried but is better as a floor spacing face up mid-range jump shooter. This leaves the low block scoring to be done by Steven Adams and Mitch McGary when he gets back. I don’t think the Thunder are going to become an excellent low post scoring team, but any additional input from the post is welcomed. With Anthony Morrow and more minutes for Reggie / Lamb, we can expect to see more three pointers launched and made and also a better focus on shutting down the perimeter output of opposition teams. We are also going to see a more dominant Russell Westbrook due to the injury to KD.
Friedman: I guess the right answer would be a healthy team. But, with the way things have been in the past few years, you never know, especially with the recent Durant news. It seems as if Oklahoma City has has bad luck in the past with injuries and maybe this is the year that they can stay healthy. Besides that, you’ll see a deeper Oklahoma City team.
Collums: Before Westbrook was injured in the Houston series two years ago, he was showing great improvement in deciding best on whether to pass or take a bad shot. Ball movement was a premium in Westbrook’s mind, and it was showing up in the Thunder’s success as well as his success on the court. Since the injury, it has been a long uphill road for Westbrook and the Thunder’s offense. A complaint most people have had since that time is that the Thunder’s offense because too stagnant with no ball movement. It seems like that will change very soon. With KD being out and everyone assuming that OKC will dissolve into a Westbrook only show, Russell will have the chance to really show how well the ball can move when Westbrook puts his mind to it. If 12 assists in one of the first preseason games isn’t at least a sign of things to come, then I don’t know what is. Expect the ball to move at a much greater pace in both KD’s absence and with Durant this season.
Riggs: Ball movement. The Thunder have been preaching ball movement this preseason, and for good reason. This year, the Thunder have offensive weapons then they have ever had. With Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Jackson, Morrow, Jeremy Lamb, Adams and Durant (when he returns), the Thunder have seven guys who have the ability to score 20 points every time they step on the floor. So far, it looks like the players have bought into the concept. After watching what the Spurs did in the playoffs last year, can you imagine if a team as talented as the Thunder start to emulate that ball movement?
Livingston: Ball movement. Finally. Throughout the preseason, the Thunder has shown a great improvement in moving the ball as well as players cutting with more purpose. Scotty Brooks promised this would happen in the offseason to rejuvenate a stagnate, isolation-heavy offense and he has delivered. This Thunder team could end up being the most efficient offensive units the franchise has ever seen.
5. It’s October 19th, 2014. If we were talking on June 19th, 2015, what what we be saying about OKC’s season? Predict how far they will go.
Bruty: Even with the injury issues and the surgery for Kevin Durant, the Thunder are still a hugely talented squad. Westbrook is going to be given the chance to really show us what he is made of and that excites (and scares) me. If OKC can keep things afloat until the MVP returns then there is no reason to think we can’t still grab a top 4 seed out in the West and claw our way all the way back to the Western Conference Finals and even the NBA Finals. If we get back to the big dance and we stay healthy then this team can honestly win a Championship.
Friedman: Beat the Bulls in the Finals in 5 games.
Collums: With so many injuries for the Thunder so early in the season, it is hard to be optimistic on how well OKC will really do. But even though it could be a disappointing year for Thunder fans, it could also be a year to remember. With all that said, all of this could make the Thunder into the complete team that they have been looking to create. Next year in June, we will talking about an NBA championship in OKC or the finals, depending on the playoffs. I can’t wait.
Riggs: NBA Champions. Yes, it feels like a risk saying that after Durant just had foot surgery. But the Thunder feel like his injury was caught early enough that he will not have any complications coming back, so I will take them at their word. The last time the Thunder had a healthy playoff run, they went to the NBA Finals and were knocked off by the Heat in 2012. Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka are three years older, and much better players than they were then. As long as they are healthy (viciously knocking on wood) this year will be the year that the Thunder finally breakthrough.
Livingston: Despite Kevin Durant’s injury, I think this team is finally going to win a NBA Championship. Considering the San Antonio Spurs got a year older (I know we say this every year) and the Cleveland Cavaliers have to figure out a lot chemistry-wise, it looks like OKC’s title window is wider than it has been before. In June of 2015, Kevin Durant will have been back for a while and will capture what he has been craving for years.