OKC Thunder Draft: Four Factors, Part Three – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

In this five-part post for the upcoming draft, I’ll be detailing four prospects the Oklahoma City Thunder have been rumored to be interested in, or who I feel they should have interest in. If you missed part one about the four factors as described by Dean Oliver, go read here. If you missed the breakdown of Devin Booker, you can read about him here.

Admittedly, I don’t watch a lot of college basketball. Outside of Kansas (where I live) and a few of the larger games, I am the very definition of a NBA snob. But there’s one prospect that intrigues me due to his unique skill set, size and similarities to previous players Sam Presti has drafted in the past. The problem is both Draft Express (20th) and Sam Vecenie (25th) aren’t as high on Rondae Hollis-Jefferson as I am, but I think he fills a specific need for the Thunder that most other prospects don’t.

As always, I’ll start with his weaknesses of which there are many.

Offensively, Hollis-Jefferson leaves a lot to be desired. He’ll be a wing in the NBA, but his 21 percent three-point shooting doesn’t force his opponents to respect his shot. On top of not shooting a high percentage, his mechanics need work (and that might be an understatement).

Draft Express does an excellent job breaking down his shot, showing just how broken it is. A player improving his shooting a significant amount isn’t unheard of at this level, but it’s going to take some time with Hollis-Jefferson. Not only does he struggle in catch-and-shoot situations, but his pull-up shooting needs significant work. Another young player that can’t shoot from the outside isn’t a player that seemingly fits with what the Thunder need (Andre Roberson, Dion Waiters, Russell Westbrook all shot well below league average from three).

While Hollis-Jefferson showed the ability to handle the ball this season, he still has a tendency to turn it over when he is the primary ball-handler. According to Draft-Express.com scouting report, he turns the ball over 22 percent of the time in isolation situations and pick-and-roll situations – a bad sign considering both are used at an extremely high rate at the NBA level.

I think it says something that Hollis-Jefferson’s strength’s video is twice as long as his weaknesses’ video. 

I’m the leader of the bandwagon when it comes to arguing against a player that is only athletic. I’ll take a player that can dribble and shoot over a player that can run and jump but has no basketball skills any day. Fortunately for Hollis-Jefferson, he has a lot of both.

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Hollis-Jefferson measured at 6’7″ in shoes (who cares how tall the player is without shoes?), had a 7’2″ wingspan (the same as the seven-footer Dakari Johnson from Kentucky) and had one of the lowest body fat percentages at the combine at only five percent. 

Hollis-Jefferson is one of the most athletic players in the draft, and measured as such, but what intrigues me about him is his play on the court. 

Offensively, he struggles when asked to shoot, but he’s fantastic at filling the lanes in transition and finishing at the rim. At either a wing or a small-ball four, he will probably outrun his matchup and be able to finish over smaller, quicker guards. 

While the Thunder will have to consider his shooting when deciding on Hollis-Jefferson, they also have the knowledge that he apparently knows what he doesn’t do well. Among players that played in more than 28 minutes per game, over 700 players attempted more field goals per game than Hollis-Jefferson did and many of whom didn’t put up the efficient numbers he did. 

Although he struggles to shoot from the outside, teams often look at players that have the ability to get to, and finish at, the rim. At 6’7″ 210 pounds, Hollis-Jefferson doesn’t have the typical 20-year old body. He’s already strong and lean, and with his frame, he can put on weight to overpower smaller defenders while maintaining the quickness needed to blow past larger defenders. 

Hollis-Jefferson also has another skill that the Thunder often covets: rebounding. While his offensive rebounding isn’t eye-popping, he has one of the highest defensive rebounding percentages among forwards in the draft (20.1 percent). As I stated in the first post, rebounding is one of the few skills that directly translates from the college to the pro game.

Although he has potential on offense, no team is looking at Rondae Hollis-Jefferson for his offense. He is possibly the best wing defender in the draft with the size and strength to legitimately guard three positions in the NBA. He was able to average 1.2 steals and almost one block per game while averaging fewer than 29 minutes per game.

His 7’2″ wingspan allows him to close out on defenders faster than most players, and also allows himself some room with his Go Go Gadget-type arms. His length and his agility project him to be an outstanding defender against some of the best scorers in the NBA.

As a lefty with a bad combination of shot selection and shot making, he draws comparisons to a young Josh Smith. However, Smith was a defensive standout that lacked the direction to truly understand how bad some of the shots he was taking were for his team. With a new regime and outstanding developmental staff, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson could turn in to the player we thought Josh Smith would become.