Managing Your NBA Draft Expectations
It’s draft day.
Teams decorate through free agency and trades. They build through the draft.
With that said, it’s important to manage your expectations. Oklahoma City has been very fortunate over the years to draft superstar players such as Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Serge Ibaka; but most teams aren’t so lucky. For every “sure thing” there’s a “bust.” For every “sleeper” there’s a “snoozer.”
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The NBA draft is a million dollar crapshoot. Teams, especially ones with higher draft picks, are hoping that 18- and 19-year-old kids can turn their franchise around in a short amount of time and that’s simply unrealistic. Not only are most of these players still teenagers, but also keep in mind that they’ve only spent a year or two in college. These players are still kids in a lot of ways. They haven’t played basketball against professionals and men. A lot of them can’t legally drink alcohol and most of them are still pretty immature. If they weren’t playing basketball, most of them would still be trying to figure out what they want their college major to be. Now they’re about to come into millions of dollars, which a lot of times can change people for the worse, and expectations that many of us will never understand or have to deal with.
It’s unfair to expect these kids to immediately make an impact. Andrew Wiggins, last year’s #1 overall pick, was supposed to be a “can’t miss prospect” yet his Minnesota Timberwolves are picking #1 overall again tonight. This isn’t the fault of Wiggins, who played well in his rookie season. It took LeBron James and Durant three seasons to lead their respective teams to the playoffs. It took Stephen Curry four. Three to four years is when you can expect to see returns on your draft investments. If players are given a fair shot and don’t figure it out by then, outside of rare cases, they likely won’t figure it out at all.
In the 2005 NBA Draft, 60 players were selected over two rounds. Five players have gone on to make the All-Star game. Five players have yet to play an NBA game. The other 50 players range from “no longer in the league” to “solid contributors on a good team.” This is typically the norm when it comes to the draft. You’ll find five to seven All-Stars, five to ten guys who will never play, and the rest will fall somewhere in between.
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The point is, no matter how much scouting has been done leading up to tonight, no one really knows how good a player will be.
Tonight just isn’t about the draft, though. It’s also about trades. Aside from the trade deadline, there’s no bigger day for player and pick swapping than tonight.
Once again, you have to manage your expectations.
You won’t find a bigger fan of trade scenarios than myself, but even I know that 90 percent of what’s being reported won’t actually happen. If that were the case then DeMarcus Cousins will be traded to the Lakers, Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb will finally be traded out of Oklahoma City, the Heat will trade any of their bench players to keep Dwyane Wade, the Nuggets will trade anyone, including Ty Lawson who is definitely going to the Kings, Jamal Crawford will be dealt now that the Clippers have Lance Stephenson, and the Knicks will definitely do something stupid.
Of all those scenarios, the Knicks doing something stupid seem most likely to happen.
There will be trades tonight, but the immediate impact of most of them won’t be known as most teams will end up trading just draft picks, whether they’re selected tonight or in the future. Sure trading up in the draft sounds good and makes it seem like you’re getting a better player, but remember, the draft is filled with nothing but unknowns. If you’re 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie, you probably think having more draft picks is better because that increases your odds of hitting on an All-Star.
Enjoy the draft. Enjoy the snazzy suits, awkward handshakes and hugs, interviews with parents, and never ending rumors. Enjoy the moment. Because chances are you’ll hate everything about tonight’s draft this time next year when your team is back in the lottery or they’ve traded the guy you were so excited about until 2019 when tonight’s pick finally lives up to his potential and has your team in the playoffs.