OKC Thunder vs. West Powers: Part 2 – The Spurs
Earlier this week, I gave a general overview of how the Oklahoma City Thunder matchup with the elite teams in the Western Conference. Today, I’ll begin a team-by-team breakdown and start with the San Antonio Spurs, since their 55-27 record had them fifth in the West last season.
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Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook rightfully get the attention of most teams, but it’s Serge Ibaka who drives the OKC Thunder when playing the Spurs. For his career, there’s only one team that Ibaka averages a double-double against and that team is the Spurs; in 17 career games, he’s averaging 12.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. He constantly kills them in pick-and-pop situations and is a monster on the boards. His athleticism gives their big men, especially Tim Duncan, a lot of trouble on the offensive floor. He also sets the tone defensively, not allowing easy lay-ups for Tony Parker and shutting down the pick-and-roll.
That might change a bit this year, thanks to the Spurs signing of LaMarcus Aldridge.
The former Portland star is no stranger to Ibaka and the Thunder, having battled them – sometimes even literally – over the years for Northwest division supremacy.
In 21 career matchups against Ibaka, Aldridge averages 22 points per game, even exploding for a 39-point outing four seasons ago (a game the Thunder still managed to win). The former Trail Blazer isn’t an outstanding defender, but he is more athletic than Duncan and better equipped to handle Ibaka when he roams outside the paint. Ibaka can still use his athleticism to get past Aldridge, but it might take him an extra second. He also gives the Spurs a different dynamic on the offensive end. If Enes Kanter doesn’t improve his defense by leaps and bounds in the coming months, it’s possible that he may not be able to play when the Spurs utilize both Aldridge and Duncan on the court together.
Gregg Popovich is a master at exploiting weaknesses on the defensive end and if Kanter is on the court, you can bet that he’ll use a lot of Duncan/Aldridge post-ups or pick-and-rolls for easy baskets. This was less of an issue when the Spurs had Tiago Splitter at center, but becomes a significant concern with the combination of Duncan and Aldridge.
That said, the addition of Aldridge hurts the Spurs defensively. If the Thunder decides to go small with a four-five combination of Durant and Ibaka, the Spurs would have to pick their poison. Either go small themselves with Kawhi Leonard at the four and Duncan or Aldridge at center, potentially allowing Ibaka to continue to terrorize them on the offensive end, or stick with Duncan and Aldridge in hopes that they’re able to match what Durant and Ibaka do offensively.
Along with adding Aldridge, the Spurs also added age. Every year you hear the same assessment of San Antonio, “the Spurs are finally getting old” and every year they prove that’s not the case. Aldridge helps them get somewhat younger, but Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Duncan are still getting older. Duncan is some superhuman cyborg that can be 60-years-old and asleep and still put up a double-double so I’m not too worried about him. Parker and Ginobili, on the other hand, should be concerning if you’re a Spurs fan. Both players struggled throughout the regular- and post-season. Parker posted his worst regular-season numbers since his rookie year and the worst playoff numbers of his career; Manu was invisible during the playoffs and saw his minutes drop accordingly.
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Unless both players have a big bounce-back season (which I wouldn’t rule out for Parker), OKC’s guards could have a field day with them. Westbrook dominates most point guards he’s matched up against, but Dion Waiters could be key for the Thunder in a matchup against Ginobili. Both figure to be the top scoring guards off the bench for each team and if Waiters looks to attack instead of step back, he could blow by Ginobili and get easy baskets.
The Spurs are a model of consistency and they re-tooled in a huge way this offseason by capturing the biggest prize in free agency. This is a matchup that the Thunder can and will likely win, with San Antonio’s depth being a possible weakness and OKC’s roster more complete than ever before. Still, the question is Aldridge and how effective – or not – he is with the Spurs. But, as long as Popovich is running the show, they’re going to be a force in the league and a team you have to have handle with caution.