We’ve been previewing how the Oklahoma City Thunder match up against the best teams in the Western Conference, including San Antonio, Memphis and the L.A. Clippers. Today, I get into how the team compares to the Western Conference finalist Houston Rockets.
Last year, the Rockets surprised many people when they finished 56-26 and made the West Finals. Led by MVP candidate James Harden, Houston became one of the most feared shooting teams in the league, jacking up a league-high 32.7 three-point attempts per game. While they lost Josh Smith this past summer, they added Ty Lawson, so I expect them to still be a high volume three-point shooting team.
The addition of Lawson helps Houston immensely at the offensive end of the court. Prior to his arrival, Harden was about the only guy they could trust with the ball in his hands. It was never easy to stop or contain the former OKC Thunder guard, but if you could get the ball out of his hands and force another player into a non-shooting decision, chances are you could succeed. With Lawson, Harden can actually afford to work less at the offensive end, meaning he could have more energy to spend on defense or, and this is the more likely scenario, he has more energy to spend offensively at the end of games.
Dion Waiters becomes a crucial player for the Thunder against Houston. As mentioned, while it’s nearly impossible to stop a great scorer like Harden, slowing him down and making him work hard can be just as effective. Andre Roberson is a much better defender, but for as hard as Harden may have to work to get buckets against Roberson, he can immediately recover at the defensive end as Roberson is no threat to score. Anthony Morrow would make Harden work a little hard on defense, especially if he’s forced to chase him around multiple screens in Billy Donovan’s system, but Morrow’s defense leaves a lot to be desired.
Enter Waiters.
He’s skilled enough offensively that he can challenge Harden on and off the ball and, though inconsistent, has shown signs of being a tough defender when he sets his mind to it. With Lawson on the court, Harden may not have to work as hard on offense, meaning OKC must make him work twice as hard on defense and when he does have the ball.
OKC struggled to defend the three last year, giving up the fourth-most attempts in the league, and if those issues aren’t corrected, a team like Houston is going to have a field day with Harden and Lawson moving the ball around. Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams also become important figures in the paint. If they can deter Lawson and Harden, two players who love to drive to the hoop, to pass out of the paint and OKC wings can close out on shooters, Houston might struggle. However, if Lawson and Harden get free looks in the paint, they’ll be there all night.
As much as Lawson helps the Houston offense, he could hurt their defense. Patrick Beverley is a hounding defender who has a proven ability to get under the skin of opponents. If Lawson and Harden are on the court together, Russell Westbrook’s night gets a lot easier offensively. Beverly is nowhere near the ball handler that Lawson is, but he is a very good spot-up shooter and had a helping hand in masking the defensive flaws of Harden on the perimeter. If he’s on the bench, the Thunder backcourt could easily equal the offensive output of Harden and Lawson given their defensive liabilities.
The Rockets still have Dwight Howard as their rim protector, but he might be asked to work twice as hard with Lawson and Harden on the floor. How he holds up in anyone’s guess.
Despite the Lawson trade, it’s possible that the Rockets take a step back this season as their backcourt defense won’t be as good and they won’t catch teams by surprise. Plus, while they don’t live and die by the three, if the three ball isn’t falling, chances are they are in for a long night.