2016-17 OKC Thunder Season Preview
By Rich Condon
The OKC Thunder have the potential to finish anywhere from the 8-seed to the 3-seed this season. Where will they end up?
As I sat watching opening night of the NBA season last night, I couldn’t help but wonder how salty the League Office was that the one actual contest of the three games was the one game not on national television.
But, to be fair, who could’ve seen that coming? That the Death Star Lineup in the Bay got punched in the mouth and almost lost by 30? Roaracle seemed more like Bore-acle. It’s just ridiculous that things like rim protection, rebounding, and height are still important in the modern NBA.
Make no mistakes, Golden State is still a force to be reckoned with, and Gregg Popovich is still smarter than all of us. The improbability of the Death Star Lineup having the worst record in the NBA at any point this year is just a refreshing reminder right from the start of the season: you have to actually play all the games. Just because the Death Star Lineup looks to be an unstoppable juggernaut of modern analytical basketball goodness, things can, and will, go off the rails.
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On paper, Oklahoma City looks like an 8 seed. They feel like a .500 team. They have a lot of interesting players up and down the roster, but for the most part these guys are all in a very new and unfamiliar role. Can Steven Adams, Enes Kanter, and Victor Oladipo all take that next step in their development? Can Russ emerge as a true alpha? Can Abrines keep up this form or was it just a preseason illusion? Is Domantas Sabonis as silky smooth and savvy in the post as his father used to be? How will Oladipo handle being on a team with championship aspirations instead of being “a few years away?” Where does Joffrey Lauvergne fit in? Who has the better Stash out of the Stash Brothers? Kyle Singler? Really? 57% from three in the preseason? Just stop it.
The Thunder were frustrating to me last season. They showed flashes of beautiful team basketball and then they would revert into the KD and Russ two-step with everyone else just standing around watching. In case you missed it somehow, KD is gone. I know, it wasn’t mentioned, like, at all this summer. This is Westbrook’s team now, and like I mentioned in a previous article, the team didn’t even go .500 the last time he was in the driver’s seat.
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That being said, I like what I’ve seen in the preseason from Russ. He hasn’t fallen too much in love with his very broken three-point shot, and for the most part is creating space from the post, a la Lebron, Kobe, and MJ. One of my favorite things to see last season was the action created around the Westbrook-Adams pick and roll, but because of that pesky two step I felt like we didn’t see it nearly enough. That should be drastically different this year, and the interesting mix of shooters on the roster should be getting a good amount of wide open corner threes as a result. Victor Oladipo stands to benefit the most from this, however, he is only a 34% three-point shooter for his career. It stands to reason, however, that the looks he gets in this offense SHOULD be a lot cleaner than the looks he got in Orlando, so I would expect his percentage to rise as a result.
Steven Adams is the player that will benefit the most from the departures of Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant. In fact, he’s my pick to win Most Improved Player this year. The big man from New Zealand has long been a favorite of mine and this is the year where his offensive contributions will match his contributions on the defensive end and on the glass. Speaking of the Stash Brothers, Enes Kanter needs to step it up in a major way on the less glamorous end of the floor. Kanter finished 59th out of 60 amongst centers last season in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus, at an abysmal -1.50. That’s simply unacceptable this year.
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Alex Abrines looked great in the preseason, shooting 50% from the floor and 60% from deep. Those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt for several reasons however, the most prevalent being that it was only preseason after all. Also, he finished the exhibition campaign with an ugly plus-minus of -7.8. He also only attempted 3.2 3’s per contest, so the sample size isn’t exactly a big one. That being said, he looks like he can be a nice scoring option off the pine.
Domantas Sabonis projects to be a solid player. He may never be a superstar, but he can contribute in big ways. He’s still small for a big man, but he’s shown flashes of his father’s post play already. He’s a capable passer, shot 30 percent from three in the preseason, 48 percent from the field, but it was how willing he was to do the little things that stuck out to me the most. He was a capable rebounder in college, averaging nearly 12 a game for Gonzaga last year, and the array of moves he has in the post is light years ahead of most big men his age.
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Like I said earlier, Oklahoma City feels like an 8 seed. A lot of teams in the Western Conference look to be improved from last season, like Utah and Minnesota. The Thunder should be a potent offensive team, but their defense, especially at the rim, worries me. But, like I said earlier, you have to actually play all the games. Anything can happen. Buckle up, Buckaroos, it’s basketball season. Finally.
