Game Day Preview: OKC Thunder vs Kings – Time for Royal Flush

OKC Thunder continue their harrowing road trip facing the Sacramento Kings and look to get back in the win column. Tip off is 8:00 PM central time.

It’s been a roller coaster week for the OKC Thunder who delivered arguably their best performance of the season versus the Grizzlies. Unfortunately they followed that up by getting thumped in Minnesota.  Let’s be honest, the Thunder can’t afford to take any team for granted, let alone the suddenly competitive Timber Pups.

Although not a must win situation, it is close to that scenario given OKC Thunder play back to back games in California. First up they’ll face the Kings, then the Clippers on Monday, in what will be their third game in four nights. And while the schedule does cut them a little slack with just 2 games on tap next week, both feature top four West seeds including the top seed in the Association: The Warriors.

Must Read: The new Big Three in OKC – Shall We Dance?

Critical game in grand scheme of schedule:

Suffice to say garnering a victory versus the Kings is important to maintaining their playoff seeding. Likewise the Kings have been flirting with gaining entry to the playoff ladder. To wit, Sacramento won 4-in-a-row in late December sparking speculation this iteration of Boogie’s Kings might be for real. Since that point however, they’ve lost 6 of their past 8 games with the 2 wins coming against non-playoff squads (Denver/Detroit).

Still, like the Wolves, this Kings team can’t be taken for granted, especially considering the thumping they laid on OKC in their last outing.  Recalling that November 23rd loss, (116 – 101) it offered plenty of insight for the Thunder.  OKC followed that blowout loss with a 6-game win streak, but it’s important the squad remember the lessons learned from the November 23rd loss.

Lessons Learned from November 23 loss to Kings:

Coach Dave Joerger has moved DeMarcus Cousins back to center in an effort to make the Kings more fluid and allow his squad to play at a faster pace.  Initially this choice paid dividends, but against the better teams the Kings have struggled. Additionally, Anthony Tolliver is back and providing serviceable production in the starting lineup.

Notably in the first match versus the Kings the Thunder had no answer for DeMarcus Cousins who shot 50% from the field, hit 3 out of 5 long balls and finished with 36 points.  Steven Adams will need to rebound from a poor night at the office in Minnesota where another of the Association’s bigs (Karl-Anthony Towns) got the better of him.

Another area for the Thunder to improve upon will be bench production. In the first outing OKC Thunder kept the scoring close (27 for OKC to 34 for Kings), but did little else. And, while the plus/minus differential doesn’t always paint a full picture, the fact all Kings reserves were in the plus does point to them holding the advantage.  Moreover the bench shot 30%, looked stuck in quick sand on defense and the Kings repeatedly punished them for their lack luster effort on both ends. Fortunately Cameron Payne’s return should offer some relief in this regard. That said, Payne will need to find someone other than Enis Kanter to provide scoring.

Must Read: Five Shooters the Thunder Should Target

Keys to Win:

Turn strengths into game winning benefits:

Rebounds: Last time out the Thunder who rank third in rebounding allowed the Kings to rule the boards. There is no reason why OKC shouldn’t dominate on the boards given the Kings rank 29th in this area (23d offensive rebounds). Sacramento’s starting line-up offers a particular advantage as they allow opponents to convert 33.3% of their offensive rebounds. This mark places them as the 13th worst lineup in the Association.

Fast Break/Transition Defense: A key area the Thunder need to capitalize on is fast break scoring. Sacramento are abysmal at transition defense, so they can feast in this area. This Kings’ weakness translates to allowing opponents to score 14. 5 points in the fast break or 25th ranking league wide. Conversely the Thunder rank third in fast break scores (17.5 point per game).

Offense/Defensive Rank: Moreover, the Thunder rank higher offensively (15th versus 18th) but hold a real advantage defensively with the 8th best defense compared to the Kings 26th rank. Sacramento allow teams to score close to 108.4 points ( almost 5 more per 100 possessions than the Thunder).

Remember who you are playing:

OKC Thunder  have 8 additional wins over the Kings and six fewer losses. That said, the bottom seeds in the West are precarious at best. This week alone the Thunder have teetered between sixth and seventh with an opportunity to move up or down each game.  With the prospect of another seven January road games including today’s match (and one at home) it’s important the Thunder win the games they are supposed to win.

Protect the ball:

The one area the Kings could feast on is turnovers. Sacramento rank fifth in scoring off turnovers. So, following a night where Westbrook coughed up the ball ten times he needs to be particularly protective of the ball.  At his best Westbrook manages to control pace and push the ball in transition. At his worst he tries to move too quickly which results in turnovers. Ideally, Russ finds the happy medium of pushing pace with a view to protecting the ball.

Related: Why Westbrook deserves to start All-Star Game, a statistical comparison of backcourt players

Rotations:

Oklahoma City Thunder Starters:

Point Guard:  Russell Westbrook 
Shooting Guard:  Victor Oladipo
Small Forward:  Andre Roberson
Power Forward: Domantas Sabonis
Center:  Steven Adams

Oklahoma City Thunder Bench:

Point Guard: Cameron Payne, Semaj Christon
Shooting Guard: Alex Abrines Anthony Morrow
Small Forward: Jerami Grant, Kyle Singler,
Power Forward: Nick Collison
Center: Enes Kanter,  Joffrey Lauvergne

Notes: No injuries

Sacramento Kings Starters:

Point Guard: Darren Collison
Shooting Guard: Garrett Temple
Small Forward: Rudy Gay
Power Forward: Anthony Tolliver
Center: DeMarcus Cousins

Sacramento Kings Bench:

Point Guard: Ty Lawson
Shooting Guard: Arron Afflalo, Ben McLemore
Small Forward: Matt Barnes, Omri Casspi, Malachi Richardson
Power Forward: Skal Labissiere
Center: Kosta Koufos, Willie Cauley-Stein, Georgios Papagiannis

Notes: No injuries

Game Specifics:

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Recent History: OKC Thunder hold the all-time record versus Sacramento with a 140-85 record. Since moving to Oklahoma City the Thunder have owned the Kings 24-7. The Thunder had won 12 games in a row over Sacramento, but in the past 7 meetings the Kings hold the record 4-3. Worse in 3 of those games the Kings have put a beat down on the Thunder.

The Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California

The Tip: 8:00 PM CT (9:00 PM ET)

TV: FS Oklahoma HD, National: ESPN

Radio:WWLS 98.1FM OKC / 930AM (ESP)

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Next up the OKC Thunder jump right back into action as they play the Clippers on the second night of a back to back.  The game in L.A. marks the third match in four nights. This puts even more pressure on the Thunder to beat the Kings and ideally to take control early so they can save their legs for Monday.