Who’s The Real NBA MVP? A Case For Russell Westbrook

Jan 15, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) passes the ball around Houston Rockets guard

(13) in the second quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

 Russ vs. James Harden

Westbrook Stats (Per Game): 27.4 PPG, 8.1 APG, 7.0 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 3.9 TOPG, .434/.286/.838 shooting 

Harden Stats (Per Game): 26.9 PPG, 7.0 APG, 5.8 RPG, 1.9 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 4.0 TOPG, .447/.379/.867 shooting 

Another statistical win for Westbrook. Unlike with LeBron, however, Dwight Howard’s recent injury has put the Houston Rockets in a similar situation to what the Thunder are facing without Durant. This makes Harden and Westbrook far easier to compare and contrast. 

Both Westbrook and Harden operate as chief on-ball playmaker for their respective teams. Both are insanely quick off-the-bounce and among the game’s best at adjusting to contact and finishing at the rim. Westbrook is not nearly the pure shooter that Harden is whereas James is not nearly the defensive force that Westbrook happens to be. Simply put they have multiple similarities but also offsetting weaknesses to their games. So aside from the statistics, where does one make a distinction about their relative value to their teams? 

Perhaps the analytics can provide some insight? 

Westbrook analytics: 30.0 PER, 7.8 Win Share, 11.8 Weighted +/-, 5.4 Value over Replace Player 

Harden analytics: 26.9 PER, 12.4 Win Share, 8.7 Weighted +/-, 6.0 Value over Replace Player 

The analytics suggest that Westbrook is far more productive on a per-minute basis than Harden is, as evidenced by his otherworldly 30.0 PER and significantly higher +/- number. That’s not too much of a shock considering that Harden is playing with far better offensive threats than Westbrook. Harden isn’t asked to be as productive because perimeter threats like Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley, and Corey Brewer are fully capable of getting their own shot if need be. Meanwhile, Westbrook spends significant time playing alongside Andre Roberson and Kyle Singler who offer next to nothing as secondary or even tertiary shot creators thus inflating his PER and +/- slightly. 

However, Harden is responsible for a much higher win share and VORP number. Both of these stats are misleading, though. Harden is obviously going to be responsible for a higher number of wins because he’s played in 13 more games than Westbrook has. This has resulted in Houston netting an additional seven wins as compared to Oklahoma City. If you reduce the number to win shares per 48 minutes, Westbrook closes that margin down to .240 versus .270 for Harden. In that respect, both players are essentially responsible for the same number of wins, reducing the significance of that particular metric. 

But where do you make the distinction between the two in terms of deciding a MOST valuable player? On the margins. 

Harden has long been a bit of a punch line when it comes to his defense. Search “James Harden Defense” on Youtube and about 10 video compilations will show up on the first page of Harden giving little to no effort on defense. It’s a running joke and everyone knows it. The thing is though, he’s gotten a lot better this year.

This video is a pretty good microcosm of his defensive jump. Harden will never be a good lock-down defender-type. It takes a natural acumen to be good at defense and that is simply one deficiency in Harden’s otherwise near flawless game. But what Harden does have is an abundance of athleticism. When he utilizes that to dodge high screens and then pick an unsuspecting defender’s pocket (i.e., exactly what happened in the above video), he’s pretty devastating. 

Unfortunately, he’s also prone to this sort of thing: 

In Harden’s defense, that play was probably going for a score either way. It’s immensely difficult to stop a full-speed NBA player in transition, even more so when you’re already out of position. However, bending over and putting your head down as opposed to giving even the SMALLEST semblance of effort certainly isn’t helping. And I think that’s where Harden concedes the race to Russell. 

Russell has never been that passive on defense. Westbrook is always looking for ways to annihilate opponents at both ends of the floor, and it manifests itself on plays like this: 

Let us have a small prayer for the New York Knicks. Point guards shouldn’t be able to do that. Fortunately for the Thunder, they have one of the few that can. And more importantly for the MVP race, one of the few point guards that will. Which is why I have to give the edge to Russell. He and Harden are carrying similar loads but Russell is being more productive with his load without weird lapses in effort. Effort counts, kids. Especially when the margin for error is so small.

Next: Westbrook vs. Stephen Curry