Thunderous Intentions
Fansided

Dion Waiters or Andre Roberson for the Oklahoma City Thunder?

By Shawn Woods

facebooktwitterreddit

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a mediocre logjam at the shooting guard position. Although individually each player has his own flaws, the combination of Dion Waiters, Anthony Morrow and Andre Roberson could mold into an exceptional complement to Russell Westbrook. Unfortunately this won’t be available for another year or two (hopefully).

Although I love Morrow’s shooting ability, his candidacy for the starting job has already been discussed. Instead, I’ll focus on Roberson and Waiters to determine who has a stronger case for more minutes.

(A quick sidebar: I don’t put much stock into whether or not a player starts. A better indicator as to what player a coach prefers is whomever plays more minutes, or more importantly, who a coach plays in important minutes. This post isn’t trying to decipher what player should start, but rather what player should receive the bulk of the minutes. Sidebar over.)

The Simple Stuff

As of this post, Waiters is averaging 8 more minutes per game than the “starting” shooting guard Roberson (the total is 28 and 20, respectively). In those 28 minutes, Waiters is averaging 11 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists. In his 20 minutes, Roberson is averaging 3.5 points, 4 rebounds and 1 assist.

Advantage: Waiters

Physical Attributes

Although a player’s height and weight don’t mean everything, there is a clear connection between a player’s wingspan and his ability to defend, rebound and finish at the rim. With that said, let’s take a look at the players’ attributes according to draftexpress.com:

Waiters: height without shoes, 6’2.5″. Weight, 221. Wingspan, 6’7.25″. Standing reach, 8’2″.
Roberson: height without shoes, 6’6.25″. Weight, 206. Wingspan, 6’11”. Standing reach, 8’8.5″.

Roberson stands almost four inches taller, has almost four extra inches on his wingspan and can reach an extra six inches on his standing reach. For comparison, Blake Griffin was measured at a standing reach of 8’9″, Aaron Gordon also had a reach of 8’9″. Kevin Love had a standing reach of 8’10”. While none of these players are known for their defensive prowess, they are all expected to guard far taller players than Roberson is expected to.

Advantage: Roberson

Defense

This seems like an easy category for Roberson, but let’s take a look at just how good Waiters is on defense. First off, the simple stats: 1 steal/2 defensive rebounds per game and nothing significant in the blocks category (0.2 per game). However, thanks to NBA.com’s SportVU cameras, we can dive a little deeper.

When guarding a player, Waiters allows that player to shoot 43.8 percent from the field (the average percentage of the player he has guarded is 43.5 percent). More specifically, with the players’ averages in parentheses, Waiters allows opponents to shoot 36.6 percent from three-point land (35.8), 63.4 percent within six feet of the rim (59.6), 57.2 percent within ten feet of the rim (57.2) and 34 percent from beyond 15 feet (37). None of these numbers are eye-popping, but they are quality numbers nonetheless.

When you look at Roberson’s numbers, you see what an elite defender looks like. Overall, Roberson allows opponents to shoot 38.2 percent from the field (the average percentage for the players Roberson has guarded is 44.6 percent). His breakdown is 27.7 percent from three-point land (36.1), 51.3 percent within six feet of the rim (59.7), 46.7 within ten feet of the rim (54.5) and 31.3 percent beyond 15 feet (37.5).

Roberson clearly has the better numbers when guarding the shooter, but with eight other players on the court at all times, it’s far more important to be a good help defender.

Sunday’s game against the Bulls showed Roberson’s growth into an exceptional defender.

The play starts with a dribble handoff from Joakim Noah to Aaron Brooks. Noah rolls to the rim only to find Roberson allowing him only 2 steps before redirecting him so the big man (Enes Kanter) can recover. It’s a simple defensive strategy that most of the league employs, however, Roberson’s length and athleticism forces Brooks to explore other alternatives.

Later in the same possession, a similar play happens between Noah and Mike Dunleavy Jr. Noah hands it to Dunleavy, rolls to the rim and Roberson is in excellent position to bump Noah and give Kanter time to recover. However, in doing so, Roberson is forced to leave his man (Tony Snell) open in one of the most efficient spots on the court, the corner three.

Remember that 6’11” wingspan mentioned earlier? Snell clearly does as Roberson forces him off the perimeter and into the teeth of the Thunder defense. This possession ended in a rushed Brooks 3-pointer thanks largely to Mr. Roberson himself.

Can Waiters do any of the things on defense highlighted so far? Possibly. Have I seen a glimpse of potential that is a fraction of what Roberson showed on this single possession? Not even a little bit.

Advantage: Roberson

March 1, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Andre Roberson (21) shoots against the defense of Los Angeles Lakers forward

Ryan Kelly

(4) during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Shooting

Roberson’s clear weakness is his ability to shoot. He’s only attempting three shots per game, and his 24.3 percentage from 3-point range is among the worst in the league at his position.

Waiters’ perceived strength has been his scoring, but his 37.4 percent shooting from the field since joining OKC begs to differ. He is a better 3-point shooter, but his 29 percent rate from long-range is hardly something to boast about.

Waiters does seem to have an edge in catch and shoot situations. Although his percentages from inside and outside the arc in those situations aren’t easy on the eyes (30.3 and 29.7 percent, respectively), he is considerably better than Roberson according to his effective field goal percentage.

However, his field goal percentage on pull-ups (33 percent) is behind players like Ben Gordon and the exiled Reggie Jackson (40 and 39 percent, respectively).

Advantage: Waiters, slightly.

Overall

So this begs the question: would you rather have a player that is below average to average on both sides of the court, or a player that is below average on one side of the court and elite on the other side? And an additional question: would you rather have a flawed player that knows his deficiencies, or a flawed player completely unaware of what he isn’t good at?

The only other argument for Dion could be the fact that he’s younger than Andre Roberson. Younger by a whole 6 days.

The answer seems pretty clear. Roberson gives Westbrook the freedom to guard the lesser player in the backcourt while Waiters has the ability to provide a special type of assist:

Conclusion: Give Roberson more minutes!

On second thought, if giving fewer minutes results in no more plays like this, maybe I’ll change my mind:

More from Thunderous Intentions

Home/Thunder News