Between trading Reggie Jackson, acquiring Enes Kanter and not having to watch Kendrick Perkins in key situations, February 19th was a day that gave Thunder fans great hope for the future. The team had finally acquired the low-post presence some had been clamoring for to complement Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. But along with Kanter came a $1 million swing man whose contract would expire at the end of the season in Kyle Singler.
Singler has career averages of 8 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assist per game – not exactly jaw-dropping numbers from a player expecting a new contract in the summer – but his game isn’t predicated on quantifiable stats.
The Thunder have a decision to make on a few free agents this summer, but Singler may be the most important player for the team to decide on.
The salary cap is expected to be around $67 million next season, an increase of about $4 million from this year’s cap. With the luxury tax level to be around $81 million, and the Thunder already on the books for $78 million next season, the Thunder will have no room in the summer to improve their team via free agency, however, they do hold the rights to both Singler and Kanter provided they extend the qualifying offer (for more about free agency, you can go read here).
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Singler isn’t the type of player that can create for himself offensively, but with Westbrook and Durant on the roster, he doesn’t have to be. Despite his slow start for the team, Singler ended the season shooting over 38 percent on catch-and-shooting three-point attempts, per NBA.com’s SportVU cameras. This number translated to a 53.4 effective field goal percentage surpassed only by Anthony Morrow (65 percent) and D.J. Augustin (64 percent) among Thunder players.
Since entering the league, Singler has put up a three-point percentage of just under 38 percent. While this number is a very good percentage for any player in the league, the number jumps up to 39 percent when taking out his rookie year with the Pistons. Fortunately for the Thunder, Singler can do more than just shoot from behind the 3-point line.
Since trading away James Harden, Oklahoma City has been looking for a player to provide quality minutes when Durant needs to rest. From Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward to Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb, the Thunder have failed almost comically. While Singler doesn’t exactly strike fear in the opposition, his three-point shooting and defense can give hope to his teammates while Durant takes his well-deserved rest. This is just one decision that new coach Billy Donovan has to make in his first season with the Thunder.
Singler isn’t the guy you ask to shut down a player like James Harden, LeBron James or other opposing wings, but he can provide the help-side defense as he did in Detroit. Considering Oklahoma City’s normally stout defense allowed a league-average 105.5 points per 100 possessions in 2015, signing a player with Singler’s defensive mindset could help them if players like Durant and Serge Ibaka miss time due to injury again.
In order to retain the ability to match any contract Singler would sign, the Thunder need to extend a $2.75 million qualifying offer. Even if a team wanted to sign Singler to a contract closer to $5 million, the money would be well spent on a player with Singler’s ability and age.
Khris Middleton, Kyle Korver, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Paul Pierce and Arron Afflalo are all examples of players that have a similar skill set at this point in their respective careers to Singler. Of those players, only Middleton (who is finishing his rookie contract and will be demand a large contract as a free agent) makes less than what the qualifying offer would be for Singler. While Singler would probably sign for more than that, his relative inexperience in the league (just finished his third year) and age (just turned 27) are reasons to expect an increase in production making the contract more valuable in its latter years.
With a franchise like the Thunder’s, cost effectiveness is always the bottom line. Durant is worth whatever the max is, Westbrook can be frustrating at times but is worth most of the trouble and Ibaka is one of the better steals in the league considering his age, ability and contract. Moreover, the team’s front office clearly values what Singler brings to the table and his versatility makes him a valued piece of the team, as per general manager Sam Presti:
"With regards to Singler, finding a player in free agency that can shoot close to 40% from the three point line over the course of a season, embrace various roles, and stand as one of your more fundamental players at 6-9 is unlikely when over the cap and tax. Therefore, we are hopeful we will be able to keep working with him in the future."
Signing Kyle Singler isn’t a move that immediately makes the Thunder title favorites, but at the money he will demand, he’s simply too good to pass up.