Yesterday I broke down the four factors as described by Dean Oliver. In the next four posts I’m going to use those factors (as well as some other descriptors to be determined on the fly) to give my opinion of players that have been mentioned as potential prospects for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
I’ll start with a player in Devin Booker that has been rumored from the first mock draft as one of the leading candidates to join the Thunder.
As a general rule of thumb, I start with the weaknesses of a prospect, and if I still feel good about his potential, I know that I can keep evaluating him seriously. Fortunately for me, Draft-Express.com does a wonderful job breaking down the prospects in two videos.
His weaknesses don’t align with what the Thunder normally look for in a prospect. He doesn’t finish well around the rim, he doesn’t rebound well for a guard and he doesn’t have the wingspan that normally translates to a good defender at his position.
Offensively, Booker doesn’t have the athletic ability of an Andre Roberson or even Jeremy Lamb which limits his ability inside the three-point line. Booker’s wingspan was measured at just over 6’8″ while Lamb and Roberson both measured at 6’11”. While a larger wingspan doesn’t necessarily mean a player will be better, there are obvious strengths when finishing at the rim.
Booker also doesn’t rebound well for a guard, and before you discredit rebounding in the back court, keep in mind that Roberson and Russell Westbrook are two of the best rebounding guards in the league which , in turn, contributes to ending a high number of possessions. Booker only out-rebounded teammates Andrew Harrison and Tyler Ulis among significant contributors for Kentucky.
Booker also didn’t contribute in facilitating the offense at Kentucky. He only totaled five more assists all season than turnovers, and lacks the creativity with the ball to make up for these numbers.
The final concern on offense is Booker’s inability to get to the free throw line. Because of his aforementioned lack of creativity with the ball and athletic ability, Booker is unable to get by defenders which would force them to foul him. Instead, Booker often settles for a lazy floater or mid-range jumper. Booker finished last on Kentucky in free throw rate at .223 free throws per field goal attempt (a high number in the pros, but is one of the lowest among prospects entering this year’s draft).
With all due respect to my fellow contributor that questioned whether Westbrook should be on the All-Defensive team, I vehemently disagree. The reason Westbrook did not get more votes (and shouldn’t have received any in my opinion) is because he goes for as many steals as he does. Westbrook often cheats or gets blown by and reaches out of laziness. Combining him and Booker as a defensive pairing would put a severe dent in any progress the Thunder would hope to make on that end of the floor.
After almost 500 words of killing Booker’s game, I feel the need to say he’s probably my favorite realistic prospect for the Thunder, and it’s because he fills a serious need. A thorough breakdown of his strengths can be seen here.
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Booker was the best volume three-point shooter that Kentucky had last season and boasted an effective field goal percentage of 57 percent. Although the college three-point line is closer than the NBA line, this often makes it easier for defenses to close out to the perimeter. Booker has the potential at the next level to stretch NBA defenses even further than he did in college.
Booker’s weaknesses with the ball in his hands would be mitigated by two of the highest usage players in the league in Westbrook and Kevin Durant. While Booker hasn’t shown the ability to be an effective ball-handler, he doesn’t need to be if he’s only asked to shoot wide open shots.
An odd “strength” of Booker’s is being the youngest player in the draft. Booker will just be 19 at the beginning of next season, and although that doesn’t sound enticing, it means that Booker has longer to break the bad habits that he learned in college, and longer for Billy Donovan to instill in him all the habits that he prefers.
Another strength for Booker’s age is that he measured at an impressive 6’6″ and 206 pounds. For the physical specimens that NBA players are, even they aren’t fully developed at the age of 19. If you have a few minutes to kill, go look at any current player and compare his size to how it was when he was 18.
Booker’s shooting and age would be a huge boost to a Thunder team that was one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league last season, but will that be enough for the Thunder to seriously consider taking him with the 14th pick? We’ll have to wait for June 25th to find out.