For several years now, staggering minutes for Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook has been a topic of discussion. The argument has been that the Thunder should arrange their rotation to ensure that at least one of their superstars is on the court at all times. It seems like a no-brainer to have a top-5 player on the court at all times, so what do the numbers indicate?
In 1,521 minutes of playing together this year, Durant and Westbrook have a Net Rating (The average point differential per 100 possessions) of +12.3 (via NBAWowy.com). This ranks eighth in the league among duos who have played over 1000 minutes together (Via NBA.com), with the Warriors owning the top three duos and the Thunder owning the next five! It is understandable why you would want them to share the court as much as they do.
The problem created by them sharing the court so much is you end up with a bench-heavy unit that will likely consist of Cameron Payne, Dion Waiters, Kyle Singler, and Enes Kanter with a rotating fifth man. These four have only shared the court for 91 minutes, mainly because Payne did not start playing until December and Dion filling in the starting lineup while Andre Roberson is injured. In that limited time, they have a net rating of -9.1 (via NBAWowy). For reference, if you insert D.J. Augustin in place of Payne, that net rating drops to -13.5 in 105 minutes. These are relatively small samples this far into the season, but still not very encouraging.
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To avoid these types of bench-heavy lineups, Russ and KD would have to spend more minutes every game playing without the other one. With each of them being injured for extended stretches the last few seasons, they have learned to do this quite well. In the 402 minutes Westbrook has been on the court without Durant this season, the Thunder have a net rating of +10.3 (via NBAWowy). With just KD on the floor, their net rating is +9.4 in 242 minutes. Everything from the eye test to the numbers seems to indicate that the Thunder should should try to avoid any stretch where both of their superstars are on the bench, so why don’t the Thunder do this? The simple answer is that they are both more comfortable only having one break per half.
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Recently, Billy Donovan has tried playing Durant the first 2-3 minutes of the fourth quarter (after playing the entire third) in an effort to keep one of the Thunder superstars on the floor. Playing 14 or 15 minutes straight in an NBA game is not very common in games that end in regulation. It brings several questions to mind: Does playing this many consecutive minutes increase injury risk? Does it decrease production? Is this the best way to stagger their minutes? I don’t have a good answer for the first two, but I may have an answer for the last one.
Generally, Westbrook takes his first break with about three minutes left in the first quarter and Durant plays the entire quarter. Russell re-enters the game with about eight minutes left in the second quarter and KD comes back around the six-minute mark. The second half is almost identical, depending on the situation of the game. If you were to take Russell out a little earlier in the first/third and have him start the second/fourth, you could get him a quick break structured around the under six-minute television timeout in the second/fourth. This would allow Kevin’s rotation to stay the same and would eliminate the problem of playing extended minutes without either one on the floor. Westbrook would have an adjustment period, but with his frantic style of play, he could benefit from playing shorter intervals.
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All of this may seem insignificant, but the Thunder are 40-15 and find themselves in a distant third in the Western Conference. They will have to find ways to improve if they want to beat San Antonio or Golden State. Using the remaining 28 games to find a way to keep one superstar on the floor at all times and to get acclimated to the changes that come with that adjustment, could prove to be beneficial come playoff time.