For the OKC Thunder to prove they are legitimate title contenders this season, they have to win against the historically great Warriors.
The regular season is a long grind, a twisting journey that has a clear start but so many potential stops along the way that the final destination remains a mystery. As a result, barring one that features a devastating injury to a star player, a single game has little actual impact. One loss means nothing when there are 81 other opportunities to prove yourself.
And yet, when the Thunder tip off tonight at the Chesapeake Energy Arena to face one of the best teams in NBA history, this has the feel of a must-win game, a desperate need to prove that Oklahoma City is truly a legitimate title-contender.
Prior to the All-Star break, the Thunder had won seven of their last eight games, their only loss a tightly contested matchup against these same Warriors. Golden State is so remarkably good that, even in defeat, teams enjoy a sense of moral victory if they can hold their own for most of the game, as Oklahoma City did that night. They won their next two games, took an extended break during the league’s fan-friendly showcase and were ready to build on that recent success.
Since then, familiar problems have begun to creep up, namely an inability to defend opponents consistently and late-game collapses that were supposed to have been left behind seasons ago. Losses to Indiana, Cleveland and a surging Pelicans team have left Oklahoma City looking more like pretenders than contenders. And while the team’s biggest supporters believe a title is still a very real possibility, those chances seem more and more bleak with each signature loss.
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One loss, in fact, might mean nothing but a string of them amount to something far greater and exposes the team’s unwillingness or, worse, inability, to seize big moments. You can look to OKC’s 41 wins and demonstrate, at least statistically, that they are the fourth-best team in the NBA. But the team’s 17 losses speak volumes and far louder than empty wins.
In 30 games against teams with records below .500, the Thunder are a solid 26-4, with surprising losses to the Knicks, Nets and a few other bottom-dwellers. In comparison, the Warriors, Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs, the three teams above Oklahoma City in the overall standings, have combined for just seven losses to sub-.500 teams. In their 28 games against winning teams (with a record of .500 or better), Oklahoma City is an anemic 15-13, barely good enough to sport a winning record of their own.
Simply stated, the Thunder lose games they shouldn’t, to both good teams and bad, an indicator that they are not moving in the right direction and might not be as good as previously believed. Injuries aren’t an excuse this year, nor is the team’s personnel – they’ve been relatively healthy and have, arguably, the most talented roster in the franchise’s existence.
Oklahoma City might prove all of this false by, somehow, becoming a devastatingly efficient team right as the postseason begins in just a few weeks. But this seems unlikely, especially given the incredible play by the Warriors and Spurs, the teams that stand in their way of reaching the Finals this season. If the Western Conference had seemed deep with talent in years past, this season has been marked with two teams that are clearly better than the rest. The Thunder aren’t one of them.
Teams have, historically, started building momentum as the playoffs loom larger in the horizon. But that takes an understanding the Thunder have yet to demonstrate, failing to grasp that each loss is throwing away a piece of the championship puzzle that might never be completed. If they’re looking to bring a title to Oklahoma City, there’s a need for controlled desperation, a sense of urgency that every game, regardless of the opponent’s quality, is a test they have to pass. Each game might be a must-win situation, even with 24 of them left in the season.
But if the Thunder truly wants to make a statement, loudly and clearly, that they are still a team capable of winning it all, it starts with a victory tonight.