Game Day Preview: Can OKC Thunder extend win streak to 4 @ Cavaliers

OKC Thunder attempt to extend their current win streak to 4-in-a-row as they tip off versus the champion Cavaliers. Tip-off is 2:30 PM, CT.

The final game of week 14 for the OKC Thunder comes versus the reigning NBA Champion Cleveland Cavaliers. Entering the day and for the foreseeable future the Thunder will be without the services of Enes Kanter.

Next Man Up:

To wit, a momentary act of emotion has put the Thunder in a precarious position. Kanter was the Thunder’s third leading scorer with 14.4 points per game and the benches primary producer.

Billy Donovan must reach into his bag of tricks to figure out how the loss of Kanter effects his rotations. Does Donovan need to tweak the starting line-up to offset reserve scoring? Or will he decide to stagger the minutes of Westbrook and Oladipo to assist the reserves? My co-hort Tony Heim offered some intriguing suggestions on some potential quick fixes.

So far this season the OKC Thunder have survived the absence of Cameron Payne until January, the loss of Oladipo for a nine game stint, and Steven Adams’ concussion. The major question at hand is if the Thunder can maintain their current playoff seed while they await the return of Kanter.

January 16, 2017; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) during a stoppage in play against the Los Angeles Clippers during the second half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /

Triple-Double Watch:

As for Westbrook, the loss of Enes Kanter has repercussions specifically tied to his pursuit of a triple-double season average. More specifically without Kanter, can Westbrook maintain his double digit assist efforts? Entering the day Westbrook sits at 23 triple-doubles’s on the season. He added two this week, and ranks fifth all-time with 60, having passed Larry Bird this week.

Westbrook has totals of 1,458 points, 499 rebounds and 481 assists on the season. With 35 games remaining and needing an average of 820 in each category this means Westbrook needs another 321 rebounds and 339 assists. That translates into averages of 9.17 rebounds and 9.68 assists over his final 35 games.

Today’s contest also comes versus one of the four teams (Cleveland, Chicago, Charlotte and San Antonio) Westbrook has yet to record a T-D against. Given the Cavs struggles of late, specifically in terms of their defense and reserve guard depth it bodes well for Russ to scratch the Cavs off his short list.

Jan 25, 2017; New Orleans, LA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Billy Donovan against the New Orleans Pelicans during the second half of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Thunder defeated the Pelicans 114-105. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /

Jarring January – Fabulous February:

Despite the loss of Kanter, there is good news on the horizon. Namely, the Thunder are almost through this crazy road heavy January schedule. They arrive in Cleveland sporting a 7-6 record, on a 3-game win streak and the opportunity to ensure a winning record for the month. That task is made somewhat trickier given OKC’s final two games feature the reigning NBA champion Cavs followed by the Spurs.

That said, once the Thunder complete these final 2 road games their schedule takes a turn for the better. February offers up 9 games out of 11 in the friendly confines of Chesapeake Energy Arena.

Flailing Cavaliers:

To say it’s been an extremely interesting month for the champs would be putting too fine a point on the Cavalier’s struggles. They began the New Year with a solid 25-7 record and other than a brief 3-game losing streak seemed to be on track to dominate the East.

However, as I pointed out all fall, the Cavaliers had just one road game versus the West (Memphis) until January 8th. That easy schedule was bound to catch up to the Cavs, especially considering they have so many games versus the Western teams in the New Year.

January has been especially unkind, as Cleveland are 3-6 in their past nine games. For most teams a 6-7 monthly record wouldn’t solicit concerns. But the teams the Cavs have lost to (Kings, Anthony Davis-less Pelicans, Blazers, Bulls) and how they’ve lost quite frankly is. For example despite winning their last game they allowed the Brooklyn Nets to score 116 points.

Though David Griffin has the title of General Manager, LeBron James is widely considered the de-facto GM. His requests (or demands, depending on how you look at it) have all been met since his return to Cleveland. When LeBron says we need (read: I want) a specific player, (Mozgov, Smith, Andersen) suggests the team meet contract demands (Thompson, Smith) or that someone needs to go (Blatt) upper management acquiesces.

So, this week when James took to media to express his concerns over the Cavs being top heavy felt (at least to this scribe) extremely hypocritical and insensitive. This is the same team that spent huge money covering luxury tax last season and is mired in the same situation with the Associations highest paid roster this season. He wanted another scorer so the team added Kyle Korver at a ridiculously cheap (read: disgusting) low price. Now he wants another ball handler who can play the point.

Must Read: Thunderous Intentions Team make All-Star Reserve Picks

Cavaliers Main Issues:

Even if I can set aside my angst over LeBron’s way of doing business, I can’t get past other areas where I feel the Cavs are struggling, often due to the King.

Lack of leadership: Again, I’m on record as saying Dwyane Wade was the real leader in Miami, but he recognized LeBron needed to be “the man” so he stepped back into the King’s shadow. And, I’m not talking about on court talent, of that there is no argument – LeBron James is simply the best all around player in the NBA.

Rather, I’m speaking to how he chooses to interact with his teammates, specifically off the court. It’s well documented the Heat were not over tasked with practices because the big 3 were not big on extra court time. Now that James has made his comments so publicly I wonder how that will effect the youngsters on the team and the “others” since James basically just called out everyone who isn’t Kyrie, Love or Thompson as being the problem.

Defensive Issues: Cleveland have not been setting the league on fire defensively and have only regressed as the season has progressed. They currently rank 18th compared to the Thunder who rank 8th.

Digging in to the Cavaliers defensive regression, the month of January offers stunning data:

2015-16: 106.2 points ranked 18th

January: In the month of January the Cavs are allowing 108.8 points – rank 19th

Last 15 Games: 110.1 points ranked 24th

Last 10 Games: 116 points ranked 26th

Last 5 Games: 112.3 points ranked 27th

Note: all data is per 100 possessions as per nba.com

Shocking Defense from the King:

Perhaps the biggest shock regarding the Cavaliers defense is how poor the King’s play has been. To that end, when LeBron is on court, opposing teams score 110.2 points. When he sits opposing teams score 103.9 points or 6.3 points less!

Conversely Kyrie Irving has an on court defensive rank of 106.2 and off court rank of 112.5. So, the Cavs are experiencing a better effort when Kyrie is on court. If you’ve watched much of the Cavaliers and witnessed how poorly he plays defense these numbers are surprising. Perhaps, what is partially attributable to these stats are Irving tends to play with what was a decent bench defensive unit. But, since the trade to add Korver those numbers have regressed to the mean.

Still, it’s frankly shocking how poorly LeBron is playing defensively.

Using the same January breakdown as above, James regression coincides with the team:

2015-16: On court: 110.2 Off court: 103.9 Differential: 6.3

January: On court: 111.3 Off court: 110.5, Differential: 0.8

Last 15 Games: On court: 112.7 Off court: 100.6 Differential: 12.1

Last 10 Games: On court: 115.6 Off court: 98.4 Oppostion scores 17.2 fewer points with James off court!

Last 5 Games: On court: 115.3 Off court: 99.1 Differential: 16.2

Obviously there is a direct correlation to the teams regression and LeBron James defensive struggles. In fairness, with his increase in playing time and having to carry the burden of the team’s play making it may be taking a toll (sound familiar Thunder fans?).

The other notable take away from this information is there is an obvious correlation to the signing of Kyle Korver and loss of J.R. Smith.

Must Read: Westbrook All-Star Weekend destined to rub salt in open wound

Dec 11, 2014; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) handles the ball against Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) during the second quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports /

Keys to Winning:

As much as the Cavaliers have been struggling there is no need to take this team for granted. First with LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love the Cavaliers offer three All-Stars to address. However, there are areas the Thunder can take advantage of with defense being the most notable.

Bring the A+ Defense: As noted above the Cavaliers are spiraling downward on one end of the court. If the OKC Thunder serve up a solid defensive effort they’ll give themselves a shot at winning. In fact, most of the keys to winning stem from what the Thunder do defensively.

Crash the Glass: Cavs rank 23rd in rebounding versus the Thunder who rank 7th. Though they’ve lost Kanter there is no reason to believe the athleticism of OKC can’t dominate on the glass. Steven Adams will need to focus on blocking out Tristan Thompson to make the mission easier. Additionally, the fact the Cav’s rank 29th in scoring in the paint should also help in this regard.

Force Cavs into shooting 2-point field goals: The Cavs rank 28th in 2-point makes versus 2nd in 3-point makes. Granted, that’s a direct result of them taking the fewest attempts from the mid range. Still, playing solid perimeter defense combined with packing the paint will put the Cavs in an area where you control how they function offense, not them.

Transition Scoring – Turnovers: Both teams excel at turning fast break opportunities into easy scores. Not to be redundant, but not turning the ball over is key, especially versus the Cavs.

Emphasize keeping ball out of Irving’s hands: Although it seems logical to say LeBron James is the guy to key in on, it’s more important to keep Irving locked down. Forcing James to either shoot or get the ball to someone other than his favorite target could be critical to staying close offensively..

Must Read: Five Shooters the Thunder Should Target

Jan 23, 2017; New Orleans, LA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) reacts as time expires during a game against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans defeated the Cavaliers 124-122. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /

Rotations:

Oklahoma City Thunder Starters:

Point Guard: Russell Westbrook – 31.0 points, 10.2 assists, 10.6 rebounds
Shooting Guard: Victor Oladipo– 16.2 points, 2.6 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 37.8% 3PFG%
Small Forward: Andre Roberson – 6.6 points, 1.1 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks
Power Forward: Domantas Sabonis – 6.1 points, 1.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds
Center: Steven Adams– 12.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists,1.2 steals, 1.2 blocks

Notes:

Enes Kanter underwent successful surgery to repair his fractured forearm. Kanter will be reevaluated in 4 weeks but could be out between 6-8 weeks.
Semaj Christon and Josh Huestis are with the D-League affiliate Blues squad

OKC Thunder Reserves:

Point Guard: Cameron Payne
Shooting Guard: Alex Abrines Anthony Morrow
Small Forward: Jerami Grant, Kyle Singler,
Power Forward: Nick Collis on
Center: Joffrey Lauvergne

Cleveland Cavaliers:

Having won only 3 games in their past 9-games expect the Cavaliers to play all their big guns.

Point Guard: Kyrie Irving
Shooting Guard: Iman Shumpert
Small Forward: LeBron James
Power Forward: Kevin Love
Center: Tristan Thompson

Cleveland Cavaliers Reserves:

Point Guard: Kay Felder
Shooting Guard: Kyle Korver, Jordan McRae, DeAndre Liggins
Small Forward: Richard Jefferson, James Jones
Power Forward: Channing Frye
Center:

Notes:

J.R. Smith is out after thumb surgery, early indications are he’ll return late March
Chris Andersen is gone for the year after an tearing the ACL in his right knee

Jan 7, 2017; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder center Steven Adams (12) warms up prior to action against the Denver Nuggets at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports /

Game Specifics:

Recent History: Although the OKC Thunder hold the all-time advantage 56-36, that record is by virtue of the Seattle Super Sonics dominating Cleveland. Since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City and arguably more a factor of LeBron James return the Cavs have the upper hand doubling the win total 10-5. In the past 5 seasons the Cavs have owned OKC winning 6 of their 9 matches.

The Venue: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

More from Thunderous Intentions

The Tip: 2:30 PM CT (3:30 PM ET)

TV: Nationally: featured game on ABC

Radio: WWLS 98.1FM OKC / 930AM (ESP)

Next week the OKC Thunder have another 4-game week which begins Monday in San Antonio (as they finish their 12 of 15 road schedule). This is followed by 3 home games featuring the Bulls, Grizzlies and Blazers on Wednesday, Friday and Sunday respectively.

Make sure to catch our post game roundup afterward and offer your thoughts on the match in our comments section.

Apologies for the late posting today, I just couldn’t stop watching what was an incredible Australian Open Men’s Final. Congratulations to Roger Federer for his 18th career grand slam title.

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Game Day Preview – OKC Thunder versus champion Cavaliers

By Tamberlyn Richardson | Jan 29, 2017