Views from OKC: Initial thoughts on a Houston playoff series
By Tony Heim
Views from OKC is a daily diary about the current state of the OKC Thunder. Today we address last night’s news and begin to look at the Thunder’s chances at advancing.
OKC Thunder fans rejoice! The first round matchup is officially set and Oklahoma City is nowhere near the Golden State Warriors. Sure the 4 or 5 seed sounded nice, but we want no part of a series against Golden State. That’s a quick second round sweep and a whole lot of embarrassment saved. Of course that’s assuming the Thunder would have won their first round matchup against Utah or LA.
Instead the Thunder are set to face the Houston Rockets in the 3-6 matchup. The headlines are obvious: MVP candidate vs. MVP candidate, Beard vs. Brodie, Harden vs. Westbrook. You’ll see some version of that from the national media throughout the series – let me be the first to tell you that the national media is wrong.
We know what we’re going to get from James Harden and Russell Westbrook in this series, it’s why they are the consensus top two candidates for MVP. No, this series is going to be Harden’s Helpers vs. Brodie’s Buddies.
It’s going to come down to how well Victor Oladipo can neutralize Eric Gordon on the offensive end while pressuring him on defense. The winner will be decided by whether or not Steven Adams and Enes Kanter can stay on the court against Houston’s spread-it-out system. Is it possible that the Thunder have the coaching advantage despite D’Antoni’s push for Coach of the Year? Looking at Billy Donovan’s small playoff sample size compared to D’Antoni’s repeated playoff failures and it appears that way.
The Thunder starting lineup matches up fairly well with Houston’s, but it’s the bench play that may lead to Oklahoma City’s demise. While the Rockets will be bringing out at least one Sixth Man of the Year candidate the Thunder will be playing three rookies and another player with 0 playoff experience.
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There’s no question that Houston’s supporting cast is better. Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson have averaged 20 points per game for an entire season. Trevor Ariza, Nene Hilario and Lou Williams have all averaged 14 points a game in their career. Harden has legitimate offensive weapons surrounding him at all times; Westbrook does not.
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And that’s why I’m not ready to call this series over before it starts. Basketball is played on two ends of the court and the Thunder have the defensive weapons to shut down Houston. Oklahoma City hasn’t showed the defensive prowess we were expecting this season, but they didn’t last year either.
Andre Roberson has proven he can contain James Harden. When Adams is playing at 125% he’s a big, strong 7-footer with the foot speed to keep up with guards on the perimeter. Oladipo is the NBA’s best “second perimeter defender” on any team.
To win this series the Thunder have to make this a defensive battle; they simply can’t outscore Houston. The good news is we now know what to expect from the mastermind Billy Donovan. He’s not going to experiment, he’s going to come in with a plan to stop D’Antoni’s offense.
My prediction? I’ll have a better grasp over the next few days.