OKC Thunder vs Houston Rockets: Game 5 Preview – Do or Die

OKC Thunder backs are against the wall as they face elimination entering Game 5 versus the Rockets.

Drama is at a peak as the OKC Thunder are in win or go fishing mode. Most teams raise the white flag once they succumb to being down 1-3.  The difference is those squads don’t have Russell Westbrook; a man who doesn’t have quit in his vocabulary. Factor in the majority of this OKC Thunder team witnessed first hand in 2016 how a team can rally and come back to win a series.

For now the squad must simply take one possession, one quarter and one game at a team. They can’t afford to start worrying they’ll need to win twice in Houston (where they are win-less so far), or they’ll be defeated before they start.

Frustratingly the Thunder have held big leads in the series, but have either relinquished them when Westbrook hits the bench or via one good scoring stretch by the ample Rockets sharpshooters.  Ironically, entering this series there were those who argued of the equal talent Harden and Westbrook have on their rosters. Yet, this would be an entirely different series if Westbrook could rely on his subs to maintain the score while he rests.

Stat Crunching:

Digging into the stats of the regular season versus the playoffs offers some insight in the series. Specifically the Thunder have demonstrated growth offensively, but regression defensively. Part of this paradox exists because of the potent Rockets offense.

Perimeter Cold Front:

After lighting up the NBA from the perimeter all season the Rockets perimeter efficiency has grown cold.  Houston ranked 15th in efficiency (35.7%), 1st in attempts (40.3) and 1st in makes 14.4 in season. Houston’s 3-point regression has been coming since their high in December of 38.3% when they ranked top 6, but continually fell down the efficiency rankings.  Therefore, finding the Rockets ranking 13th of 16th playoff teams in  3-point efficiency isn’t all that surprising.

Perhaps Harden’s up and down performances could be expected given how well the Thunder defended him in season. Yet, most super stars raise their level of play in the post season.  Through  4 games Harden is shooting 27% from deep (down from 34.7%). Only his points are higher (33ppg) whereas his 6 rebounds and 7.75 assists are beneath his season averages.

Harden Banged Up:

Perhaps part of Harden’s regression can be pinned to a sore wrist entering the playoffs and now another injury. After their Game 4 win James Harden revealed he’s playing through a sore ankle which he incurred in Game 3. NBA.com article offers the full background including this quote:

"“Got some treatment, and I’ll be ready to go tomorrow,” Harden said before Monday’s practice."

Shade Time?

The Rockets bench had a good laugh over fouling Andre Roberson in order to get back in the game. You have to love Westbrook’s response. Too bad he didn’t remind them of their last few seasons when they led the league with those types of fouls on Dwight Howard.

Keys to winning game 4:

One at a time: take each item on the list one at a time. The team’s initial focus should be jumping on the Rockets to keep the Toyota Center out of the game.  True OKC have failed to win on the road yet in this series and have an issue closing games,but worry about those things as they arise in the game.

Nene: While OKC have done a brilliant job of stopping or limiting the Rockets it was Nene who got the best of them in Game 4. They’ll need to do both in this game.

Brodie needs an ‘other’: All series the main issue has been maintaining leads with Westbrook off the court resting. His teammates just need to adopt Russ’ mantra and believe ‘Why Not’. Otherwise they can grab their fishing poles.

Enjoy the moment: No one expected this squad to be where they are, or to have been in as many games this season as they have. Sure, it’s mostly due to the incredibly human being named Russell Westbrook, but let’s hope this youngsters knowing they have nothing to lose can pull another rabbit out of their hats.

Lighting can strike twice: OKC have been here before, albeit on the opposite side, but believing is half the battle. ‘Nothing is impossible to a willing heart’.

Related: Taj Ball – The Complete Gibson Guide

Predicted Line-ups

Oklahoma City Thunder Starters:

Point Guard:  Russell Westbrook
Shooting Guard:  Victor Oladipo
Small Forward:  Andre Roberson
Power Forward: Taj Gibson
Center:  Steven Adams

Oklahoma City Thunder Bench:

Point Guard: Semaj Christon, Norris Cole
Shooting Guard: Doug McDermott, Alex Abrines,
Small Forward: Jerami Grant, Kyle Singler, Josh Huestis
Power Forward: Domantas Sabonis, Nick Collison
Center: Enes Kanter

Houston Rockets Starters:

Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Patrick Beverley
Small Forward: Trevor Ariza:
Power Forward:Ryan Anderson:
Center: Clint Capela

Houston Rockets Bench:

Point Guard: Eric Gordon,  Bobby Brown, Isaiah Taylor
Shooting Guard: Lou Williams,
Small Forward: *Sam Dekker. Troy Williams
Power Forward:  Kyle Wiltjer
Center: Nene Hilario, Montrezl Harrell, Chinanu Onuaku

Injury Notes:  Sam Dekker remains out with a wrist injury

Game Specifics:

More from Thunderous Intentions

• Stealing one player from every Southwest Division team for the OKC Thunder
• Should the OKC Thunder chase after a disgruntled hometown hero?
• 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
• Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

Playoff History: Breaking down the meetings between the two teams, the OKC Thunder hold a decided advantage 25-16.

The Line: Following the  OKC Thunder Game 4 loss, odds makers have the hometown Rockets listed as 7.5 point favorites. The over-under is 222.5 points.

The Venue: Toyota Center, Houston Texas

The Tip: 8:00 PM ET (7:00 PM CT)

TV: FS Oklahoma HD

National TV: TNT

Radio: WWLS 98.1FM OKC / 930AM (ESP)

Ultimately this may prove to be the final game this season. And, if it is, Thunder fans have nothing to feel despondent about. Russell Westbrook is on your team, there is a young core built around him and there will be other stars who want to join him to push OKC over the top. Besides, if I told you last season following the loss to GSW, Kevin Durant would leave to join them, Westbrook would defy all the doubters to sign an extension and return to post the most incredible individual performance in NBA history while leading his squad back to the playoffs — I have a feeling you might say ‘no way’. Well it happened, and for that we should all be truly grateful we got to come along for the ride.

Now, go out and play this game like only the OKC Thunder can. Win or lose, Thunder Nation appreciates all the magical memories of 2016-17.

Check back after the game for the TI Game 5 Roundup offering insight on highlights from the match.