Andre Roberson Future with OKC Thunder tied to other free agents

1. Market Movements

This is probably the most important factor to consider. Sure, the increasing salary cap is one factor. But, how the rest of the NBA fulfills their team needs will also trickle down to affect Roberson.

Clearly Andre Roberson is not an elite player. So, chances are, by the time he receives an offer, it will probably be days after the initial glut of free agents get their contracts. By then, teams will get a better chance to evaluate Roberson’s relative worth on the market.

For example, Kevin Durant’s decision on whether to forgo a max contract or not will affect whether Andre Iguodala becomes available. If the Denver Nuggets decide to release Danilo Gallinari into the trade market for assets, he will be another solid wing player clubs can fight over.

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The most important stakeholder, though, are the Boston Celtics. Their pursuit of Jimmy Butler, Paul George and Gordon Hayward, if it plays out, could be the starting domino that triggers a host of other deals.

Think about it. If the Celtics snag Hayward, it could turn the Jazz into a big spender in order to preserve their playoff push. Even if Utah doesn’t go for Roberson, just the fact they are more willing spenders who will drive market prices up as teams get priced out of their original targets.

Conversely, if the Celtics get their small forward target through a trade, it might mean the likes of Marcus Smart and Jae Crowder entering the trade market. Those are defensive-minded wings just like Roberson. If that happens, the overall market price for wings like Roberson could go down.

Maths Don’t Lie

I drew a linear regression model based on last year’s free agent wings, excluding elite players like DeMar DeRozan, LeBron James and Durant. The model compared individual win shares with the average annual value of their contract.

Using Roberson’s win share score of 4.2 this season, the model projects that Roberson will receive a 4 year, $52 million deal. That pegs Andre Roberson to receive deals similar to what Courtney Lee, Arron Afflalo and Solomon Hill received last summer.

This estimate makes sense. The Nets have been widely touted to field a 4 year, $50 million offer to Roberson. Depending on the other trades around the league, his figure could go beyond or dip under. But, Presti and the rest of the front office should be prepared for something like that – the going rate for Roberson will be around $12-15 million per year.