Thunderous Thoughts: Predicting the Thunder’s record

Welcome to Thunderous Thoughts, a weekly look at the OKC Thunder where math is not required.

The full schedule for the OKC Thunder has been released. Naturally, now it’s time to overanalyze things and make record predictions based on trivial things like nationally televised games and amount of travel. Let’s get to it.

Based on my calculations, I expect the Oklahoma City Thunder to finish with a record of 0-85.5. How is this possible when there are only 82 games in a season? Math.

37: The amount of nationally televised games the Thunder plays. Also the amount that they’ll lose. Nationally televised Thunder are the anti-TNT Bulls. They seem to lose every televised game, even when they’re up 20 entering the fourth quarter. Ok, I know that throughout their history they haven’t lost every single nationally televised game. They beat the Cavs and Spurs last year in TNT games. But no one remembers those games because it kills the “OKC can’t beat good teams” and “Russell Westbrook is a ballhog” narrative.

Thus, even when they win on national TV, they still lose. Because they lose more than they win and people only care about losses.

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14: The number of back-to-back games OKC plays. Also the number that they’ll lose. This team was trash on the second game of a back-to-back last year. They lost to the Pistons, Kings, Pacers, Suns and Nuggets on the second game of a back-to-back last year. None of those teams made the playoffs.

The only time OKC won the second game of a back-to-back last year is when Russell Westbrook bailed them out.

Come to think of it, the only time OKC won a game last year is when Russell Westbrook bailed them out.

I miss Russell Westbrook.

4: Losses to the Golden State Warriors. I know every Warriors game is nationally televised and that the numbers shouldn’t overlap, but when have you ever expected perfect math and outstanding logic from this column?

1: Opening night against the Knicks. Things feel a little too perfect. The Knicks are in turmoil. They could have any combination of Kyrie Irving, Carmelo Anthony or Kristaps Porzingis. Maybe they’ll have all three. It’s possible they end up with none. You never know with the Knicks.

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Meanwhile, the OKC roster has been more or less set for a month and the team is already working out together. All signs point to an easy victory for the Thunder.

But longtime Thunder fans know that nothing comes easy. And we’re always prepared for the worst. Losing to the Knicks on opening night would be the worst.

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10: Admittedly, this is a lower-end guesstimate on how many heartbreaking games OKC will lose. It could be more than ten, but it won’t be lower. Remember last year when Serge Ibaka hit the first tough shot of his career and it just happened to be a game-winner against the Thunder? Or when the Pacers beat OKC without Paul George or the Pistons won without Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond? Or that terrible stretch where they lost to Portland (twice), Phoenix, and Dallas?

We can always expect at least 10 games where we wake up the next morning like, “how did they lose?”

19.5: The Thunder lost 39 games last year. Assuming they are twice as good with the offseason additions, we’ll cut their overall loss total in half. That gives them 19.5 losses.

No wins. 85.5 losses. That’s my final prediction.

Maybe we shouldn’t put so much stock in the first glance at a schedule.