Views from OKC: The Thunder won’t be a four seed this season

OKC Thunder forward Carmelo Anthony — DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 10: Carmelo Anthony #7 of the OKC Thunder looks on during the game against the Denver Nuggets on October 10, 2017 at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)

Views from OKC makes its triumphant return five days from the start of the OKC Thunder season. It’s good to be back.

Did you miss Views? I know I have. If your new to Thunderous Intentions, or if you just joined our community over the offseason, you might be a little confused right now. That’s okay because you’re here now.

Views from OKC is a public diary from me, a bias but reasonable Oklahoma City Thunder fan. Sometimes you’ll get multiple Views in a week. Other times we may go weeks without one. It all depends on what’s going on with the Thunder and if I have one particular sentiment that needs addressed. Here goes the first Views from OKC of the 2017-2018 season. Hope you enjoy it.

Golden State-Houston-San Antonio-Oklahoma City. That’s how virtually every basketball pundit – from the national media to the random blogger – has the Western Conference playing out. It’s not a bad take either. Here’s why.

Golden State will undoubtedly be the #1 seed.
Houston is the second-most offensively talented team in the league and their only new starter (Chris Paul) is one of the smartest basketball players in the world.
The Spurs are the Spurs and we should never doubt them.
Picking an Oklahoma City team that’s integrating two new starters and two key bench rotation players over one of these two teams is risky. It’s a good thing I’m feeling myself on this fine Saturday.

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I have no clue who the Thunder are going to beat out for the #3 seed. But I do know they will surpass at least one of these teams.

The case for finishing above Houston

Houston’s season is going to go one of two ways. The offensive explosion is simply going to be too much for most of the league, leading to a 60+ win season. Or any number of these things could lead to their “demise” (a four-five seed):

The Rockets have no depth. Patrick Beverley, Sam Dekker, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell all played specialized roles last season that made Houston’s offense click. Houston is one Chris Paul injury away from being the same team as last season minus most of their bench.
Like the Thunder, Houston is going to have their growing pains. Paul and Harden are both used to leading an offense; the Point God may struggle early on giving up the reigns to Harden. This is the least likely of any of these scenarios, but still one nonetheless.
Defense is a serious concern. The Rockets were 18th last season in Defensive Rating, 16 spots behind the team everybody is chasing. The PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute additions help on the wing but doesn’t solve Houston’s interior problem. Last season the Rockets gave up the most shots inside 6 ft at the 10th most efficient rate – once Clint Capela checks out there’s nobody to protect the rim.

If the Rockets stay healthy they will likely win more games then Oklahoma City this season. If not, the Chris Paul acquisition will come back to bite them. A 2-seed in the Western Conference can’t rely on players like Bobby Brown, Tarik Black and Troy Williams to play rotational minutes night-in and night-out. That’s who Mike D’Antoni will throw out if the injury bug bites the Rockets even remotely.

The case for finishing above San Antonio

This is the one I truly believe in. Yes, the Spurs are the Spurs and they still have Gregg Popovich. But the talent in San Antonio is at it’s lowest in years. Hear me out.

Unlike the other teams in this discussion, the Spurs only have one All-Star. And that All-Star truly seems to be hurt. Kawhi Leonard is out for the regular season opener with a quad injury with no timetable for a return. We don’t know how many games he’ll miss, but even 5-10 games without Kawhi could be the difference between Oklahoma City and San Antonio.
Even if they had Kawhi, the Spurs have huge roster questions. Johnathan Simmons and Dewayne Dedmon – San Antonio’s most versatile bench players last season – left in free agency. They were replaced by Joffrey Lauvergne and Rudy Gay. Lauvergne couldn’t find a consistent spot in a severely weak Thunder bench last season. Gay is coming off one of the worst injuries in sports: a torn Achilles. Name value says Rudy Gay will improve the Spurs’ bench, but are we sure the 31-year old can come back and be better than Johnathan Simmons was last year?
San Antonio oddly seems to be behind the times. They’re still running out a starting lineup with two slow-footed bigs who combine to shoot 2.4 threes a game. Kawhi Leonard is their only defender who can guard multiple positions. The Spurs are playing a different game then the rest of the league – it finally may come back to bite them this season.

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Betting against the Spurs has never gone well for pundits. But this season just seems different. There’s so many questions surrounding San Antonio’s roster we haven’t even mentioned 35-year old Tony Parker returning from a torn quad tendon in January. Pop is a basketball genius though; he very well could be worth 10-15 wins this season.

There you have it. Contrary to popular belief, Oklahoma City isn’t the only probable top four seed with serious questions heading into the start of the season. Chemistry will be a concern, but their overall talent on both ends of the court will be difficult for teams to outlast. Once this team figures it out, however, they will go on a run that only the Warriors can match. There are only so many teams (1: the Warriors) that can effectively contain Carmelo Anthony as a third option.

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The Thunder are going to start the season behind Houston and San Antonio (unless Kawhi is out for an extended period), but they will recover. They know a #4 seed will only result in a second-round exit, something the Thunder’s three stars will not accept.

Don’t doubt the chip on Oklahoma City’s shoulders. Russ and Melo combined for three technicals…in the preseason. Proving the pundits wrong, and proving their legacy to to themselves, is what makes this OKC team different from the rest.

They have something more to fight for. Because of that we’ll find the Oklahoma City as a #2 or #3 seed at the end of the regular season.