Isolating the 3 games which changed the OKC Thunder season

The third game which crowned the turnaround was the Rockets game on Christmas Day. Although many will cite the absence of Chris Paul, the win for the OKC Thunder was imperative to cementing the OKC Thunder were headed in the right direction.

A few nights later the Thunder also easily dispensed of the most consistent Eastern Conference team who ranks top ten in all three categories (the Toronto Raptors). Again, the Thunder likely benefited from the Raptors being on the second night of a back-to-back and Toronto playing their 14th opposite coast came (notable as some teams have only played 13 total road games).

Still, these two wins were significant, but the Rockets victory was the cherry on top per se.

Some will argue the win against the Warriors was more pivotal. It was important, but given the team sandwiched it between two and three losses including a smackdown by the Mavericks I’d disagree it had a greater effect.

The stats bear the fruit:

A look at the OKC Thunder stats through this point in the season highlights how the shifts affected the growth.

October:

Recalling the start to the season the OKC Thunder was using more player and ball movement. The win total reflected this as the squad went 4-3 in their 7 games. Factor in the loss to Minnesota and we could be talking 5-2. In spite of that loss, there are a few other takeaways.

• With a shortened preseason and training camp many teams took a few games to find their rhythm and get their legs.
• Donovan starts to immediately tinker with the rotation which has a direct effect on the OK3 as they search for which of George or Anthony should get more time with the reserves. The result is the issues experienced with the reserves begin to show up with the starting unit.
• As for the big three stat categories, in October the Thunder ranked 9th offensively, 2nd defensively, and 3rd in net differential.

November:

This is the month where the train went off the tracks. OKC may have been trying too hard to prove the naysayers wrong or perhaps it was inevitable growing pains. Either way, the squad registered a 4-9 record in this period.

• The Thunder opened the month on a four-game losing streak and closed the month on a three-game losing streak which culminated in Orlando.
• OKC lost all seven of their road games in the month.
• Several times OKC leads the matches by double digits only to succumb to their opponent.
• A third of the nine losses were by one, three, and four points.
• Also, a third of the losses were to lottery-bound squads struggling to get wins (Sacramento, Dallas, Orlando)
• The regression also showed up in the big three stat categories where OKC ranked 25th offensively, 8th defensively, and posted a negative net differential of -1.7 and ranked 19th.

December:

Immediate progress was made in the month and although there were falters (Nets, Knicks) there were more positives than negatives to draw upon.

• Produce a 12-4 record. Again, note the miscall of the Bucks game which could have translated into a 13-3 record.
• Two wins come in overtime (one in triple-overtime).
• Eight of the wins are by five points or less
• Four of the six road games result in victories (including finally registering a western road victory)
• Finding a better two-way balance, the Thunder’s big three statistical categories for the month are 12th offensively, 7th defensively, and 7th in net differential returning to a positive with a +2.9 differential.

OK3 signs of growth and integration of George/Anthony:

Another big sign things are improving is witnessed in the offense, defense and net differential of the OK3. In particular, George and Anthony between November and December.

November:

Offense:

• Westbrook: 104.0
• Anthony: 100.6
• George – 100.2

Defense:

• Westbrook: 100.5
• Anthony:101.3
• George: 101.6

Net Differential:

• Westbrook: positive +3.5
• Anthony: negative -0.7,
• George: negative -1.4

Notably, when Westbrook sat the offense dropped off to 90.2 and the team registered a negative differential of minus -18.8.

December:

Offense:

• Westbrook: 110.4
• George: 109.9
• Anthony: 109.4

Defense:

• Westbrook: 103.0,
• George:104.2.
• Anthony:104.5

Net Differential:

• Westbrook: positive +7.4
• George: positive +5.6
• Anthony: positive +5.1

Notably: Paul George moves from performing the worst in all three categories ahead of Anthony in all three in December and both join Westbrook with a positive differential.

Lessons Learned:

So, the Magic and Knicks games served as the Oprah ‘AHA’ moments for Westbrook and Anthony. In each case, the result sparked tweaks which would allow the OK3 to take the necessary steps forward.

In Westbrook’s case, he needed to stop trying to spoon-feed the offense and then expect to snap his fingers in the clutch trusting his offense to just be there. Rather, Westbrook needed to return to his MVP style and let his All-Star wingmen adjust to him.

In Anthony’s case he needed to accept, the only way the Thunder could excel was if he allowed his two younger counterparts to be the primary weapons and become the ancillary tool.

There is no spoken evidence to prove Anthony is bothered by the comments he is a selfish iso offense strangling player. Yet, it would seem reasonable this isn’t the preferred vision he wants to be remembered for.

In hindsight, everyone in Thunder Nation should thank their lucky stars the loss in New York occurred, particularly in that very manner.