Deep Dive: OKC Thunder and west opponents stretch schedule analysis

Despite repeated adversity the OKC Thunder could still capture homecourt. This deep dive examines the seven squads jostling to land the fourth through eighth playoff seeds.

A season earmarked with growing pains, chemistry issues and injuries has kept the OKC Thunder embroiled in adverse situations. Despite the constant turmoil and as crazy as it might seem the Thunder could still enter the postseason in possession of a home court seed.

Fair warning, there will be plenty of fluctuations each and every day from now until season end. As an example: OKC entered Saturday’s match in seventh. They moved to fifth courtesy of defeating the Spurs. The next night they fell to sixth after the Wolves upset the Warriors. With the win in Sacramento OKC jumped into fourth.  And, this all occurred in less than 48 hours.

As for the teams who’ll play a role in this dance I’m focusing on the seven teams ranking fourth through tenth. This because so many of these teams are addressing their own barriers. For some, injuries will play a huge role, others must address scheduling challenges and all the teams will meet one another during the stretch run.

I’ve excluded the Rockets and Warriors since they are so far out in front they won’t be caught and their only affect on the seeds will be whether they beat the teams in play.

West teams packed tighter than a can of sardines:

Only two games separate the squads ranked fourth through tenth. The bad news is the Thunder don’t own any of the tiebreaks that matter and have the fewest games left to play of the contenders.

The good news is OKC can still catch the Blazers who sit in third and the reserves have seemingly found their chemistry at precisely the perfect time.

As for the math, it  gets tricky at this stage depending on which number you chose to focus on. For example the Blazers are ahead in the “games back” column by two, but have three fewer losses to their credit and one additional win. They also own the tiebreaker over the Thunder having won all their meetings this season.

The same two game padding exists for the the OKC Thunder over the teams seeded seventh through tenth. In terms of wins and losses those same seeds have between three and four fewer wins and the same (Clippers) or one additional loss.

In terms of figuring out win/loss projections focusing on the win percentage is the most accurate method. Other factors such as strength of schedule, road versus home games and injuries all play a role.

Depending on each of these areas  numerous scenarios can play out. To try to isolate the chances of where the OKC Thunder will finish I dove into the seven teams remaining schedules.

Breaking down each team in the middle ground:

The following offers a break down of the seven teams ranked four through ten in the West. Each was dissected based on win percentage and the various scenarios. Furthermore, I dive into the logic of where each team could and should finish and how it affects the OKC Thunder.

The big question on the table as the Thunder face their final13 games is if the franchise had it’s druthers which position they would ideally want to be in.  Part of this is speculation since the top two seeds might not be determined until their final games are played.

For the moment, let’s look at each squad’s remaining schedule and dissect the possibilities.

Notes:

• Strength of schedule data from tankathon *(as of 3-13-18 (changes daily)
• Stats from NBA.com unless otherwise stated
• For the purpose of this report I considered the ninth and tenth west seeds as playoff seeds given those squads shift up and down daily. As of this posting this means the Nuggets and Spurs are being considered playoff seeds.