Thunderous Intentions
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Deep Dive: OKC Thunder and west opponents stretch schedule analysis

By Tamberlyn Richardson

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MARCH 08: Oklahoma City Thunder Forward Paul George (13) plays defense as Phoenix Suns Guard Devin Booker (1) looks to pass during the Oklahoma City Thunder game versus the Phoenix Suns on March 8, 2018, at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK. (Photo by Torrey Purvey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MARCH 08: Oklahoma City Thunder Forward Paul George (13) plays defense as Phoenix Suns Guard Devin Booker (1) looks to pass during the Oklahoma City Thunder game versus the Phoenix Suns on March 8, 2018, at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK. (Photo by Torrey Purvey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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OKLAHOMA CITY, OK – MARCH 08: Oklahoma City Thunder Forward Paul George (13) plays defense as Phoenix Suns Guard Devin Booker (1) looks to pass during the Oklahoma City Thunder game versus the Phoenix Suns on March 8, 2018, at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK. (Photo by Torrey Purvey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

OKC Thunder: 

Record: 40-29

Current Seed: 4th

Games Remaining: 13

Back to Back Sets: One, Kings/Hawks (Mar. 12/13)

Road vs Home Games:  7 road (47.0 win%)| 6 home (68.5 win%)

West vs. East Games:  8 West | 5 East

Games left vs. current lottery teams: 11

Games left vs. current playoff teams: 2

Strength of Schedule remaining: Rank 4th (hardest of west seeds) with .573 SOS

Toughest Teams: Rockets, Warriors, Raptors, Celtics, Blazers, Pelicans, Spurs. Heat x 2

Easiest Teams: Grizzlies, Hawks

Current Win Percent: 58.0%

Last 10/streaks: 7-3 in last 10, won three in a row

Tie Break Records: 

Jazz: Thunder won series 3-1

Nuggets: Denver are up 2-1 with a game left which could tie series on March 16

Clippers: OKC has won series 2-0 with game to play March 16

Spurs: OKC lead series 2-1 with one to play March 29

Wolves: Minnesota won series 3-1

Pelicans: New Orleans won series 2-0 with one to play April 1

Blazers: Portland won series up 3-0 with one to play March 25

Notes: 

Of the teams in this contentious west playoff seeds battle the OKC Thunder own tie breaks over the Jazz and Clippers. San Antonio is the only undecided series, but the worst OKC can do is tie. While the teams who own tiebreaks on the Thunder are the Wolves, Pelicans and Blazers.

Logically the goal should be to capture more wins than teams who own tiebreaks, but obviously this isn’t solely in their hands. Moreover, 11 playoff seeded teams (or ones within the dog fight) await. Among those are the top two teams in each conference.

Predictions for final ranking:

Based on the presumptions above, the goal should be to to get as close to 50 wins as possible. That marker seems highly unlikely, but perhaps 48 is doable (if Adams doesn’t miss significant time). Should the Thunder reach that milestone I think they could capture the four seed.

Remembering the above theory is based on some analytics and gut instinct my calculations tend to revolve around the 47 win mark. If the teams perform to their averages several could finish with 47 wins. Realistically the Jazz, Wolves, Pelicans and Spurs could all garner 47 wins. My estimation has the Clippers and Nuggets missing the cut.

Furthermore, it is conceivable the Thunder could win eight more games to finish with 48 wins, but they will need to take down some solid playoff squads to get there.

Other key factors could be decided between squads such as who wins the game March 17 between the Spurs and Pelicans.

Again, this isn’t in stone and injuries will affect the order moving forward. Notably, I’m slotting in the OKC Thunder to finish in the four or five seed.  This more so from a ‘hope’ perspective as it’s fair to say I’ve likely lost all capacity to be unbiased. Couple that with my desire to play the Rockets prior to the Warriors, and in this case desire overruled logic.

Is there an ideal matchup?

Personally, I think the perfect scenario would have OKC align opposite of wherever the Rockets bracket is. Should Houston finish first then the goal should be to capture the fourth or fifth seed. Let’s face it the Warriors have another gear to switch and despite the Thunder’s success against them, it would behoove them to play in the Conference Finals and not earlier.

More from Thunderous Intentions

No I’m not jumping ahead, I recognize beating the Rockets (or many of the squads listed) isn’t a given. That said, the Raptors demonstrated how to defend Houston in their win Friday. Force the team who scores the lowest percentage of their points in the paint to score there.

Chris Paul has yet to ever make it past the semi finals and has an unfortunate history of getting injured. The Wolves will be dealing with bringing back Butler. Anthony Davis is nursing injury and carrying a heavy load.

For as hot as the Jazz and Clippers have been those are the two squads the Thunder have seemingly mastered.  Ultimately there is no easy path to make the postseason or to ensure a deep run. The one squad I’d avoid like the plague in the first round is the Spurs. Yes, the same team who currently sit tenth.  Call me crazy, but until I see Gregg Popovich, Kawhi Leonard and his Spurs off the list I refuse to count them out.

Can Playoff Paul George show up a few weeks early?

For those who’ve witnessed Paul George in Eastern Conference playoffs – think of his very best performances this season. It’s akin to a light switch — he just finds another mode and “flick” he goes there.

If you caught the Spurs game and George’s play of late you’ll note that switch has definitely been stuck in the off position.

One thing is guaranteed the final 13 games for the OKC Thunder and between 14 -17 for their opponents is sure to offer playoff type basketball over the next month.

Enjoy the ride Thunder Nation!

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