OKC Thunder: Analyzing stretch run schedules with view to seeding

Preseason confidently predicted Warriors-Cavaliers Part IV:

At season start most analysts and pundits had the Warriors and Cavaliers Part IV as the natural ending to the season. As the first few months passed these same pundits predicted a four horse race with Houston vying to beat Golden State and Boston facing Cleveland. The x-factor was the Spurs depending on Kawhi Leonard‘s health.

Some pundits threw out possible dark horses with each of the Wolves, Pelicans, Nuggets, Blazers, Jazz  and Thunder taking their turns in the spotlight out west.

In the east, the teams thrown into the mix were the feel good Pacers as well as the ‘trust the process’ 76ers. The Wizards, Bucks and Heat all spent time in the spotlight as possible contenders and even the Pistons following the Blake Griffin trade. Ironically, even as the Raptors sit atop the east having lost four games in their last 24, all it took was a three point loss to the Cavaliers for a few pundits to quickly write them off.

Through the break and trade deadline not much changed except the Rockets began to gain momentum as true rivals for the Warriors.

With 10 or fewer games remaining several top teams are suffering fatigue, while bottom seeds and those just outside are playing desperate.

But, the clear differentiator as the rocket launch countdown began is injuries.

Related: How each teams injuries could affect seeding and playoff results

Things can change in an instant:

Here’s the thing – there are no guarantees, except death and taxes (and in this scribe’s opinion the Spurs making the playoffs).  Many friends inquired why this season would be worth watching, citing the inevitable Part IV finale. The main example offered was injury (though chemistry and trades also ranked).

Sadly, this example has proven correct as several top talents got hurt this season. Yet, the injury news dropped this weekend regarding two of the perceived top four teams threw a major wrench into what was previously considered absolutes .

The East Hit:

Kyrie Irving and Boston announced he’d undergo a minimally invasive surgical procedure Saturday.

More importantly, I’m in agreement with Keith Smith – what’s so minimally invasive about surgery? The only people who say that, are the ones who’ve never had surgery.

The update from the Celtics following this minor surgery is Irving will miss between three and six weeks. If the latter he might miss the postseason completely. Furthermore, the update on Marcus Smart’s thumb is he’s expected to be out between six and eight weeks.

Although Irving is the larger hit, Smart’s absence is equally concerning given his defensive prowess and to some he appears as the emotional core of the Celtics.

Ironically, the Celtics Leprechaun continues to travel with the team as inexplicably without Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown (concussion protocol), Daniel Theis (knee) and Marcus Smart (thumb) the youngsters keep winning. And, not just winning, but doing so in dramatic fashion against top squads like the Thunder and Blazers.

The West Hit:

Although the battle for seeds – three through eight has been exciting and ignited debate, the running narrative remained only the Warriors or Rockets could win.

Yet, when it comes to sports as quickly as you can snap your fingers, a preconceived absolute can change.

This was emphasized Friday when Stephen Curry returned from an ankle sprain only to suffer a worse injury. JaVale McGee fell awkwardly back into Curry – the result was a sprained MCL.

Notably, the Warriors are dealing with copious injuries already and Houston’s Chris Paul also is out with a minor injury.

Following an MRI Saturday, the Warriors announced Curry will be out a minimum of three weeks, but up to six (see tweet below for formal report).

What this means for the postseason:

Both sides are hopeful the recovery period will be the three week timeframe, but again there are no guarantees. Regarding the teams who didn’t get anointed at season start as well as fans who want to experience a competitive postseason this only serves notice of how anything can happen.

As an aside – what’s up with the Warriors big men’s penchant for accidentally hurting their own players? It’s an odd coincidence (remember Zaza Pachulia inadvertently hurt Kevin Durant last season).