NBA Draft prospect profile: Luka Doncic – Human Rorschach Test

Strengths:

Playmaking

While Doncic’s scoring is certainly nothing to scoff at, it’s his passing that truly sets him apart. He’s established himself as one of the best playmakers in Europe. Doncic finished in the top-15 in assists per game for two consecutive seasons. His vision and feel as a passer are nothing short of spectacular. And, with his size  (6’8″), he can find openings that smaller point guards simply can’t.

Furthermore, he flashed unique prowess in the pick-and-roll and his game in those situations should translate quite nicely with NBA spacing. Just watch his patience in the possession below to find the right man, make a read not many players can make, and execute when the timing is just right:

He may never be a superstar point guard. Yet, his playmaking ability should make him a viable option on offense over his pro career.

Crafty Scorer

As a scorer, Doncic showcased enticing potential this year. Luka Doncic could be a secondary or maybe even primary option at some point down the line. He’s not an elite athlete nor does his first step blow by anyone, but he still was one of the craftiest young players in the world.

He used an interesting blend of stellar footwork, creative ball-handling and unique feel for the game to score a relatively efficient 14.5 points per game this year. The play below is almost emblematic of the creativity we’ve come to expect from Doncic as a scorer:

But he still has limitations.

He’s below-average athletically and although his mechanics are fundamentally sound and he’s a decent spot-up shooter, he still shot just 30.9% from three this year. Moreover, he doesn’t quite have the shake in his game you’d expect from a lead ball-handler, especially one this highly touted.

Doncic flashed tantalizing promise this year as a scorer. Still, he has a way to go before he can be the all-around threat offensively he needs to be to overcome his weaknesses.

Weaknesses:

Athleticism/Conditioning

Despite his feel and skill level offensively, it’s fair to wonder how well his game will be able to translate given how out of shape and un-athletic he looks at times. Even in his highlights, he appears noticeably slower than we’re used to seeing from a potential first overall draft pick. It’s possible that, like some on Twitter have theorized, by putting him in on an NBA training regimen and into the labs of touted companies like P3 training, he could develop as an athlete.

But it’s just as possible he can’t get much more athletic than his current state. And if he can’t become a better athlete, it’s absolutely critical he maxes out skill-wise offensively.

That’s what makes evaluating Luka such a difficult task. Clearly, his floor is above average, but given his athletic limitations, his ceiling might be lower than some would like to admit.