With less than a month until the 2018 NBA Draft, the TI writing team launches our annual OKC Thunder Draft Prospect Series.
Welcome to the future of the NBA! For lottery teams and those no longer playing, this period offers room for optimism. The time of year fans excitedly hope their favorite team will pick up a generational talent who’ll lead them to the Promised Land. When rabid fan bases dream of the rarity of landing a player of Manu Ginobili‘s ilk with the 57th pick. Thunder fans may harbor this sentiment given OKC selects in this precise spot (57th) and 53rd, but don’t have a pick in the opening round.
A flash back through time offers moments of euphoria and great fortune for the Thunder franchise.
Luck, Risk and Whiffs:
Draft luck prevailed on more than one occasion for the Thunder. A trio of lucky situations resulted in an a-typical start for the new franchise. Case in point, Kevin Durant was available for the then Sonics second pick due to the Blazers being enamored with Greg Oden.
One season later, Derrick Rose was an understandable top draft pick for Chicago. Yet, Sam Presti was fortunate once more as the Heat and Wolves selected Michael Beasley and O. J. Mayo ahead of Russell Westbrook. The trilogy of luck continued in 2009 when the Clippers made Blake Griffin the top draft pick and the Grizzlies inconceivably selected Hasheem Thabeet leaving James Harden open for the OKC Thunder to nab with the third pick.
With these propitious draft picks there is also evidence of monumental oversights. In 2010 the OKC Thunder traded away Eric Bledsoe as well as Quincy Pondexter (and Craig Brackins) for the11th pick – Cole Aldrich. Still, this wasn’t irrational given the guard depth on OKC’s roster. Rather, it was more a failure based on the return.
2014 Disaster:
The 2014 Draft stands out as arguably Sam Presti’s worst performance ever on Draft Day. Long noted as a GM with the ability to recognize untapped talent (Westbrook, Steven Adams), Presti spectacularly missed the mark. In particular his selection of Mitch McGary at 21 (as well as Josh Huestis at 29) is one of his most criticized draft performances. What makes the selections so egregious is the multitude of talent Presti skipped over.
When OKC selected at 21, check out the players yet to be drafted:
- Nikola Jokić (Denver – 41)
- Clint Capela (Houston -25)
- Kyle Anderson (San Antonio – 30)
- Spencer Dinwiddie (Detroit – 38)
- Rodney Hood (Utah – 23)
- Jerami Grant (Philadelphia 39)
- Bogdan Bogdanović (Phoenix -27)
- Glenn Robinson III (Minnesota 40)
- Jordan Clarkson (Washington – 46)
- Dwight Powell (Charlotte – 45)
- Joe Harris (Cleveland 33)
Credit to the organizations who developed each of the above prospects into serviceable players. While there is no guarantee these players would have progressed as quickly in OKC, it’s fair to say all were preferable to McGary.
Salary issues loom:
More from Thunderous Intentions
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- 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
- Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
- Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder
The absence of a lottery pick is particularly frustrating this season considering the Thunder’s roster and salary dynamics. While the franchise is keen to bring back Paul George, success in this endeavor will carry a major price tag in the $30.3 million a season range. Moreover, the prospect of Carmelo Anthony opting into his final contract year worth $27.9 million is daunting.
Presently eight players are contracted next season at $88.9M. Assuming Anthony opts in and George returns OKC will already be committed to $147.1M with only ten players on the roster. This takes the team over the salary cap, doesn’t include the luxury tax and still means the team is five players short of a 15-man roster (not including two 2-way G-League allotments).
Further complicating the situation is their four free agents (Corey Brewer, Jerami Grant, Raymond Felton and Josh Huestis) represent the majority of OKC’s reserve depth.
Clearly, adding talent and depth at an affordable price is a top priority. If Grant leaves the depth issues at center and the frontcourt become even more pronounced. And, this punctuates why it would behoove the Thunder to land an NBA ready rookie.
Roster holes require filling:
Presti is completing his due diligence holding meetings and workouts. The fact OKC’s GM visited with candidates ranking in the top 10 (Trae Young -6th/Michael Porter -8th) led to whispers the Magician’s hat hasn’t been retired.
History dictates not to presume Sam Presti will stand pat. That said, the problem is the coffers are fairly bare. Presti doesn’t have copious assets with which to barter and the draft will occur two days prior to the deadline Anthony has to opt into his contract. What are the odds he’ll make his decision prior to the draft? And, how could that decision affect the moves made on draft night?
Armchair GM – TI’s Annual Prospect Series :
With that, Thunderous Intentions begins our annual draft prospect profiles with a view to every option on the board. Since the OKC Thunder have two picks, albeit late in round two, precedence will be afforded to the prospects predominantly ranking between 45 and 60.
But, we haven’t forgotten Presti’s magician hat or the potential for miracles. Therefore, we’ll start at the top with the lottery picks. Segment two will feature prospects projected to be drafted (15-30) in round one. Next, the team will speculate on the projected top half of round two (a logical area Presti could pair his two picks to move into). The final group analyzes the 15 prospects most likely to be selected by the OKC Thunder if Presti stands pat.
Next: Luka Doncic prospect profile: Human Rorschach Test
Each profile provides statistical and personal information, highlights strengths, weaknesses, fit with Thunder and likelihood of the prospect being drafted by OKC.