NBA Free Agency and LeBron prompt dramatic shifts to 2019 title odds

With NBA Free Agency underway and LeBron James taking his talents to Hollywood, Vegas reacted with dramatic shifts to 2019 title odds.

Shortly after the 2018 Champion parade Vegas listed odds for teams to win the 2019 NBA Title. Of course it was too early to make those predictions. But hey, that’s the fun of betting, predicting and debating.

In the initial proclamations there were easy lines to draw into what factors led to early favorites. Of these it’s safe to safe the King himself made the biggest impact. Teams like the Lakers, Rockets, 76ers and Cavaliers were given probably far too much of a shot in the arm because they were deemed the most likely landing spots for James. Others with outside chances like the Heat and Knicks also got a shot in the arm.

Other key free agents which presumably played a part in setting the odds were OKC Thunder’s very own priority free agent Paul George. Teams like Houston weren’t necessarily adversely affected by Chris Paul‘s decision since there wasn’t much concern he’d sign anywhere but Houston.

NBA Free Agency kicks off with a bang:

The manic 24 -48 hours following the launch of the NBA Free Agency Moratorium had fans and pundits alike in helter skelter mode. Paul George early announcement at Russell Westbrook‘s house party was akin to a starter’s gun ringing out. This because the ensuring bedlam was crazier than the 2016 summer of over spending. LeBron James took the route of a quiet announcement from Klutch Sports confirming the Lakers assignment.

DeAndre Jordan sashayed over to Dallas without emoji’s or fan fare. 33 year old Chris Paul agreed in principle to a Rockets max four year $160 million deal. But, the team lost defensive constant Trevor Ariza to the upstart youngsters in Phoenix.

By the time the dust settled Westgate actuaries had revamped the initial projections for the 2019 NBA Title. And, to say these shifts were significant would be an understatement.

Revised odds with a ‘Kingly’ Twist:

The above chart offers the initial odds Westgate released on June 11th. Additionally it showcases the revised July 2nd odds reflecting the first full day of NBA Free Agency. More specifically, the effect of LeBron selecting the Lakers.

Note the chart is categorized by color to reflect specific segments.

More from Thunderous Intentions

• Stealing one player from every Southwest Division team for the OKC Thunder
• Should the OKC Thunder chase after a disgruntled hometown hero?
• 3 OKC Thunder players who can step up in Aleksej Pokusevski’s absence
• Aleksej Pokusevski sidelined approximately 6 weeks with ankle injury
• Damian Lillard does not fit with the OKC Thunder

11 teams are featured in grey blocks denoting no shifts in odds nor expectations of placing among the NBA’s elite.

• Orange blocks are designated for the Warriors, OKC Thunder and Rockets who remained the same or experienced slight shifts. James arrival in the West shifted virtually all teams south even the upper echelon. Let’s assume the other factor presumed is other big name free agents would follow James. (notably DeMarcus Cousins had not selected the Warriors as of the newly released odds).

• Only three teams experienced significant shifts upward. Without LeBron to contend with, Boston seems logically earmarked to win the East. The Mavericks having added DeAndre Jordan alongside rookie sensation Luka Doncic. And of course the newly minted LeBron Lakers.

• Finally the yellow segment features five teams all of whom dropped by 20-1 odds with four teams in the West and one perplexing East team.

Five Takeaways:

One: Given the Warriors remain favorites they should logically improve once the odds are adjusted to reflect the addition of Cousins.

Two: The status quo positioning of the OKC Thunder seems undervalued since so much emphasis was placed on the retention of George. Moreover, few expected Grant’s return in this scenario, so his presence should theoretically make the odds more favorable.

Three: Utah re-signed a core piece in Favors so their drop is perplexing. Yet, the oddest shift belongs to the Raptors. With fireworks exploding in celebration of Canada Day, it could just as easily be surmised they were in honor of their nemesis’ exit.  Furthermore, the Raptors weren’t a squad LeBron was likely to join nor were the Jazz, so these odds seem heavily shaded to the low side.

Four: The Rockets high rank seems inflated as well. Although the loss of Ariza on it’s own isn’t tragic. If the uncertainty of the Spurs – Leonard standoff resulted in a dip, how then did the unsigned Clint Capela and defensive gem Luc Mbah a Moute not effect the Rockets more egregiously?

Five: Based on the initial reports betting on the Lakers is spreading faster than a wind aided wild fire. Meaning, even with their perplexing free agent additions and strange heavy handed salary offerings they’ll only climb higher.

Next: Complete NBA Free Agency primer for all 30 teams

Sure, LeBron James is now on this historic squad and Kawhi Leonard may or may not be joining him. But in their current state, having missed the playoffs the past six seasons ranking them second in the league feels like odds baiting.