Carmelo Anthony and the OKC Thunder experiment is technically over. As OKC explore options the most beneficial involves a trade to slash luxury tax while simultaneously adding depth.
When the OKC Thunder re-signed Jerami Grant to a multi-year deal, the writing was on the wall for Carmelo Anthony. After weeks of speculation, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that OKC are working with Melo’s agent to free the former All Star.
ESPN Sources with @royceyoung: Oklahoma City, Carmelo Anthony will part ways this summer, likely saving team over $100M. Thunder working with 'Melo's reps on exits that include trade, stretch provision. Story: https://t.co/mJbxINv2Cd
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) July 6, 2018
General consensus is Oklahoma City will either buy him out or stretch his contract. However, Oklahoma City will explore trade options before offering those options. The Houston Rockets emerge as a potential suitor for Anthony.
Marc Stein of the New York Times reported that the Rockets will pursue Anthony following his release:
More on the Rockets' plans to pursue Carmelo Anthony once he becomes a free agent via @NYTSports --> https://t.co/pLhicTcq8V
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) July 6, 2018
Could OKC entice Houston with a trade? It makes little sense since the Thunder stand to save over 107-million-dollars just by stretching his contract over three seasons. However, Ryan Anderson‘s two-years, 41-million-dollar contract still hovers over the Rockets. Would Oklahoma City entertain the idea? Lets check it out.
Rockets – Thunder Trade:
Oklahoma City receive: Ryan Anderson, PJ Tucker, 2019-second round pick
Houston receive: Carmelo Anthony
Why Oklahoma City do it
OKC receive two veteran players with very different skill sets. Anderson is a three point sniper that will fill the roll Anthony was suppose to occupy as a stretch four. He’s a 38 percent career 3-point shooter and averages a touch over five rebounds per game. He’s not the greatest defender but Oklahoma City is full of defensive minded personnel. Anderson could occupy a role as a sixth man and makes a nice complimentary piece to athletic bigs Grant and Nerlens Noel.
PJ Tucker is a “dawg” of a competitor. A rough rider by nature, Tucker brings physicality on the defensive end and can guard both forward spots. He’s developed a consistent 3-point stroke over the last two seasons, shooting just over 38 percent from deep. The Houston native provides depth at both forward spots and is a very reliable defender in crunch time.
The 2019 second round pick was added for taking on an extra year of Anderson. Teams accepting bad salary would usually seek a first round pick but Houston has all the leverage. They could acquire Anthony after a buy out for nothing but they would still be stuck with Anderson’s contract. You never know.
Why Houston do it
Houston have been in buyer’s remorse once they realized how bad Anderson’s contract is. Four-years, 80-million-dollars for a power forward who only offers shooting is a massive overpay and the Rockets have been trying to move him for almost two seasons.
This is their opportunity.
Anthony’s deal is expiring and stands to save Houston 13-million-dollars next season. He’s not as accurate as Anderson from range (career 35 percent) but he can score in a myriad of ways. Melo is a solid rebounder and loves putting up shots.
While he is a poor defender, Houston are essentially trading apples with apples with Anderson stuck in mud on the defensive end. If Melo is bought out, he’s likely to sign for something around five-million-dollars. Might as well pay him out right while getting off an extra year of Anderson.
Luxury Tax Implications
Depending on what Oklahoma City choose to do impacts how large their tax bill will be. Kyle Singler and Dakari Johnson are unlikely to be on the roster once the season starts. The removal of their combined 6.2-million-dollar salaries alone save OKC around 38-million-dollars.
Below are the two scenario’s centered around Ryan Anderson.
The semantics:
If OKC elect to keep both Anderson and Tucker, the luxury tax bill sits around 124-million-dollars (following Singler’s trade and waiving of Johnson).
Stretching Andersons two-year, 41-million-dollar contract over five seasons locks Oklahoma City into paying him 8.2-million dollars through to the 2022-23 season. This lowers the tax bill to 62.6-million-dollars.
The most ideal move would be a direct trade to a team with salary cap space. Only Chicago Bulls, Sacramento Kings and Atlanta have the room to take on his contract. A future first and two second rounders might be enough to move him. This will save over 28-million-dollars and lowers the tax bill to 34-million dollars.
All that being said, this is the hardest part of the trade is finding a partner willing to take him. With teams aiming for next year’s free agent class, two year contracts are extremely hard to move especially when a player is due a little over 22-million-dollars.
Final Word
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This scenario seems unlikely. OKC may be ridding themselves of Melo’s play but they’re accepting more money. Tucker would be a welcomed addition but Anderson nails them to the ground.
Stretching Anderson’s contract over five years is two years more than stretching Anthony’s, limiting flexibility. Lastly, there are more steps that requires other clubs to play ball complicating the process.
If I am Sam Presti and the front office, I’d entertain this trade. But as for the logistics? This trade is a tough sell.
As for other trade scenarios, I recently looked at the Lakers and a trio of teams. You can peruse those options here:
Trade to Lakers: Thunder must strike while iron is hot and move Melo to LA
Trio of teams: 3 trade destinations OKC should target for Melo
Notably, the second article on the trio of trade destinations was an initial reaction to Paul George and Jerami Grant re-signing. At the time, the very real looming $300 million roster sent the TI team into a frenzy trying to figure out how this market could bear that burden.
Next: Complete NBA Free Agency primer for all 30 teams
However, with the priority moving ahead in earnest I’m doing deeper dives focusing more on an economical assessment. The goal is to find the best fit for Carmelo Anthony, but since this is a business — to do so while simultaneously adding roster depth as the Thunder look to shave millions off the current untenable roster cost.