OKC Thunder season preview roundtable – Q3: offensive, defensive ranking predictions

T.I. counts down to the OKC Thunder 2018-19 tip via a preseason roundtable. With eight days remaining,the focus shifts to a revised tempo system and associated expectations.

Question 3:

Last season the OKC Thunder finished 10th in both offensive and defensive rating. Only three other squads accomplished that feat — the Warriors, Rockets and Raptors (who were the only team to finish top five in both). Certainly the news Andre Roberson‘s return will be delayed hurts. But the team added depth this offseason and purged the defensively challenged Carmelo Anthony. Despite ARob’s absence can OKC improve upon last season’s defensive ranking and where do they finish in both categories?

Lawrence George – @geola388

If Alex Abrines and Terrance Ferguson are the answer at shooting guard then no. Dre is an elite defender and produced the biggest on-off court disparity in the NBA last season (OKC were 11.2 points better with him on-court than off it). My interest lies in TLC whose physical stature is very similar to Roberson’s and the numbers support giving him a run as the starting two-guard.

With the Thunder already loaded with offensive talent in the starting unit, his 6’6 frame and 6’11 wingspan could be useful. OKC are likely to be somewhere between 7-12 on defense.

Offensively, Oklahoma City are much more balanced. Despite losing Melo’s 15 points per game, the Thunder can allocate a number of wasted possessions back into other players in the starting unit. Steven Adams and Patterson figure to have larger roles in the offense making Anthony’s departure an easier pill to swallow.

The biggest jump will be in the second unit. Dennis Schroder is going to torch second units and he runs the pick and roll extremely well. The German’s chemistry with Adams has already been on display this off-season and once Nerlens Noel becomes comfortable, the bench is going to see a massive uptick in scoring. Overall, Oklahoma City should rank in the top 10 on offense despite its lack of shooting.

Tamberlyn Richardson – @TTOTambz

Perhaps I’ll be the most optimistic of the crew here, based on my cohorts responses. Recognizing the Thunder are in the crowded west, I still think this iteration (even without Andre Roberson returning as early as expected) this squad is deeper and more adept defensively.

The key in my humble opinion lies in the bench. Since Durant’s departure part of the reason Westbrook had to carry such a load was the inability of the reserves to score. Even when they were able to defend, they couldn’t score.

A certain German point guard should change that dynamic. In the “it’s only preseason but… category. The bench unit particularly Grant, Noel and rookie Diallo have been a breath of fresh air. Compiling the questions I knew the Thunder, Raptors, Rockets and Warriors ranked top 10 in both categories, what I wasn’t aware of is they were the teams who did.

I’ll be the bold one and state the Thunder finish top three defensively and top seven on offense. If Westbrook and Roberson were healthy now I’d up the offense a couple notches, but since they aren’t that’s a big ask. However, this prediction comes with a few caveats:

1. Billy Donovan has to find a balance of giving the young guys room to fail without having too quick of a hook.
2. Simultaneously Billy D needs to  know when to pull the plug. Especially when certain older veteran point guards forget there are four other players (often wide open) playing with him.
3. Health, not just Dre’s but avoiding any additional core players getting injured.

Gideon Lim – @GideonLim_NBA

I expect a slight dip offensively. The spacing’s tighter this year, making it harder to crash the offensive boards. Plus, if the team is playing faster, that means fewer chances to have a follow man. Defensively, I’m banking on Nerlens Noel to boost our numbers.

Reid Belew – @UpJimbo

I think we will improve offensively just because Schröder will be playing against second units, and PPat might be starting. If that’s the case, I hope that PG, Pat, and maybe TLC or Ferg will be able to spread the floor for a Russ/Adams pick and roll. Defensively, we were still very good without Roberson. I’m feeling spunky, so I’ll say another top 10 finish in offensive and defensive rating this season.

Jordan Buckamneer – @jbuckamneer

Depth will be huge for the Thunder on both ends of the court this season. So long as we can stay healthy, I can see the  OKC Thunder improving in both offensive and defensive ratings due to better consistency. If Dennis Schroder can be the sixth man we’ve been looking for and Nerlens Noel can protect the rim, the difference between the first and second unit won’t be nearly as bad as we saw last season.

And, don’t forget about the versatile Jerami Grant who will be getting a lot of run with both units and defending multiple positions. So, because of the added talent to the bench, OKC should be fighting for a top-five spot in both offensive and defensive rating.

Amy Li – @realkimchiwitch

Offense will slightly improve with the better playmaking capability and defense will be about the same until Roberson returns. Top 9 in both. It’s all about getting to the playoffs and hopefully this year we won’t be fighting down to the wire.

Alex Roig – @AlexRoig_NTTB

Definitely. The aforementioned Carmelo Anthony is no longer on the team, and they have bigs that can switch and play in the pick and roll. The Thunder will finish in the top 5 on defense, probably around 4th. Offensively, I think they finish in top 10, probably around 8th.

Austin Sternlicht – @The_Sternlicht

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Without Roberson, the OKC Thunder can still be a top ten defense. It would require Westbrook to give more than half-effort for a majority of the game. Carmelo is gone so that means at most, there will only be one minus defender on the court.

The offense should also be better now that everyone knows their role. I do expect top 10 finishes in both offense and defense. So should the Thunder.

Stephen Dolan – @SteveThunderfan

Sure! Roberson missed a few months last season, hopefully it’s only a couple months this time. So the difference should be how the team performs while he’s out. Exit Melo, enter Patrick Patterson.

Patterson is, at the very least, a plus defender. Melo was, at the very most, real real bad. That alone should cause an improvement. On top of that, let’s just say opposing benches are going to find it tough to score on Grant and Noel.

Asad Ali Jamal – @SuperCyrax98

I believe the subtraction of Carmelo Anthony is enough to keep OKC Thunder at the same defensive level they were at last year and I believe they will likely reach new heights as a unit from improved chemistry and the inevitable return of Andre Roberson. I’d say that the Thunder has the potential to finish top 5 offensively and defensively this year from what I’ve seen. Now, whether they do reach that potential relies on too many factors to say for sure.

Rylan Stiles – @Rylan_Stiles

The OKC Thunder can absolutely improve defensively. The obvious point is Andre will be healthy at some point this season to bolster the unit. However, Patrick Patterson will be key as well. He spent all of last year playing out of position, and now he is in a more comfortable role. Him, Grant, and Noel will be key on that side of the floor.

This wraps up question three from the roundtable. Question four with seven days left in the countdown dives into Russell Westbrook and whether he’ll effectively transform to include excelling at off ball plays.