Channel the energy:
Social media and news outlets definitively declared Russell Westbrook would not play following a media update and coach Donovan post practice comments. Still, if you’re a true OKC Thunder fan it’s likely you haven’t ruled out his participation. Paul George wouldn’t declare Westbrook out and there is this overwhelming gut feeling his goal has always been to be ready specifically for this game.
Since the beat writers aren’t privy to witnessing practices we can’t be sure if Russ, Billy D et el are playing possum. It sure would be a great way to catch the champions off guard. However, if Russ is anything less than 100 percent this would be the worst game for him to suit up. No doubt watching K.D. collect his second ring will fuel Westbrook to a state of seething hubris.
On the other hand, if he is ready to play this event will serve as the perfect kick start to the first on court sighting of the star playing with this iteration of the Thunder. Suffice to say I’m kind of hoping that little gut instinct proves correct.
Can’t help you there. We don’t see practice, so I can’t really give you a full sense of what he did.
— Brett Dawson (@BDawsonWrites) October 15, 2018
Perimeter Defense:
While the OKC Thunder continue to struggle to find their range they’ll face a squad historically strong from behind the arc. Through the preseason the Thunder shot the 3-ball with 33.6 percent efficiency while the Warriors shot an uncharacteristically low 34.2 percent.
In terms of defending the line the OKC Thunder held teams to 31.0 percent through four games. Golden State on the other hand were the worst among NBA squads in preseason allowing opponents to shoot 41.7 percent in five games.
Granted, preseason is used to work out the kinks and is an extremely small sample. So while it offers insight, it’s important both sides recall their natural tendencies. Specifically, Golden State retained their core who historically are solid defenders. As for the hitting the 3-ball in spite of ranking in the middle of the pack the Splash Brothers were connecting from deep on par with typical mid season flair.
Always subject to change and likely a much firmer update will come tomorrow after shootaround, but Russell Westbrook is listed as out against the Warriors in the game notes. Also, Steven Adams is listed as questionable with lower back stiffness.
— Royce Young (@royceyoung) October 15, 2018
Win the specific wars:
Four key areas can be isolated as essential areas to gain advantages if the Thunder can expand their preseason success, clean up the areas they weren’t performing well and take advantage of the areas where Golden State appeared to be struggling. Those specific four areas can be broken down on both sides of the hardwood as follows:
Points scored off turnovers:
- OKC: 24.0, ranked 5th
- GSW: 20.7, ranked 13th
Second chance scoring:
This area of excellence speaks to how well the OKC Thunder have been doing on the glass and at forcing turnovers. OKC led the preseason with 16.0 offensive rebounds per game.
- OKC: 18.5 ranked 3rd
- GSW: 12.0 ranked 24th
Fast break scoring:
So much for ‘tempo’ and increased speed. Albeit, once Westbrook returns his natural locomotive tendencies will alter the stats and less minutes for (still out of shape Raymond Felton) will also translate positively.
- OKC – 9.8 ranked 27th
- GSW – 19.0 ranked 5th
Points in the paint:
- OKC – 45.5, ranked 19th
- GSW 44..0, ranked 22nd
The lessons for the Thunder regarding the Warriors offense will be to balance their defense. Perimeter scoring is low for the Warriors, but the Splash brothers are on fire and the Dubs are pushing pace, scoring in transition.
In the same categories here’s how the teams ranked defensively:
Opponent points scored off turnovers:
- OKC – 17.3, ranked 12th
- GSW – 19.2, ranked 16th
Second chance scoring by opponent:
- OKC – 8.0, ranked 8th
- GSW – 12.4, ranked 9th
Opponent fast break scoring:
- OKC – 7.3, ranked 2nd
GSW – 20.8 ranked 30th
Points in the paint opponent scoring:
- OKC – 46.0, ranked 17th
- GSW – 46.4, ranked 20th
The clear area where the Thunder can excel is via pushing the pace at the Warriors. Another opportunity OKC should be able to capitalize (assuming Steven Adams plays) is scoring in the paint.
If there is a one roster weakness still to be sorted on the Dubs roster it is the center position particularly when the starters are off the court. Livingston potentially being out also opens the door to pressure the backup to Curry.
* All stats pulled from nba.com stats page unless otherwise noted.