OKC Thunder preview: Dennis Schroder – the difference maker
What OKC needs this season
Oklahoma City’s greatest season in franchise history came in 2011-12. While they lost in five games to LeBron James‘ Miami Heat in the NBA finals, OKC relied heavily on three young stars to carry the mantle (Russ, Kevin Durant and James Harden) and one defensive juggernaut to protect the rim (Serge Ibaka). OKC are yet to emulate that one terrific season that sent shock waves through the league.
Fast forward to 2018-19 and Oklahoma City have a roster that finally resembles (somewhat) that championship run. Westbrook, PG will carry the bulk of the offense, Adams is the defensive anchor and Schroder is set to play that Harden role.
For a successful season, Schroder must average around 16 points, 4 assists, 2 steals while shooting 45 percent from the field and an optimistic 35 percent from three. These numbers closely resembles Hardens 2011-12 numbers (16.8 points, 3.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds on 49 percent shooting and 39 percent from three).
What is likely to happen
Despite taking a step back shooting from distance last season (29 percent), I expect Schroder to shoot 35 percent from range. The presence of Westbrook, George and Adams on court is going to give the German plenty of looks from three. He’s shot 35 percent from three just once in his career and that came on a dominant Atlanta Hawks team who won 57 games in 2014-15.
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Schroder will excel in every other category. He is Oklahoma City’s sixth man and will torch second units. Depending on how many minutes he receives with OKC’s starters, the German is likely to score between 14-16 points per game and will average around six assists,
His chemistry with OKC’s athletic wings and bigs will allow him to show off his exceptional vision.
The toughest prediction is his shooting from the field. With a reputation as a chucker, Schroder’s shot selection will be crucial to his success. Like Russ, the German’s offensive game revolves around isolation and mid-range shooting.
Should he revert to tendencies to take bad shots, Schroder could be destined for another 42 percent shooting season. OKC absolutely need one of Russ or Schroder to shoot around 45 percent.
Final Thoughts
It has been some time since OKC had a legitimate sixth man who can contribute in multiple categories. Schroder brings a high offensive IQ and capacity to allow plays to unravel. His ability to change speeds and deliver pinpoint passes immediately increases the Thunder’s ceiling. Additionally Schroder values the basketball and rarely turns the ball over needlessly (2.7 turnovers per game last year).
For the Thunder to be truly successful, Russ and Schroder must co-exist together. For this to happen, Russ must give up ball playing duties and play off the ball. As great as Westbrook is, he is a turnover machine and needs someone to take over ball handling duties.
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OKC fans know what to expect from Russ, PG and Adams but the Thunder will only go as far as Schroder takes them. His contributions are crucial and will determine whether OKC are contenders or pretenders.