OKC Thunder: the shots will fall – the math guarantees it

The OKC Thunder have been, by any metric, the worst shooting team in the NBA this season. But has the offense really been that bad? Or is this an anomaly? Let’s explore.

I’m leading with a major spoiler here, because we’re going to be diving into math, and because the math will look really, really bad sometimes. But don’t lose heart, the spoiler is: at the end of this article, you’re going to feel real Thundered Up.

And, look, I know feeling real Thundered Up is a rare commodity at this point. The Thunder are zero and four. It makes my heart hurt to type that sentence. OKC also have the 28th ranked offense. That hurts too.

They’re last in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and free throw percentage. Being last in all of those should be impossible when you have Russ and PG. And – another spoiler – it is.

You’re hanging out on an NBA website. You and I both know that you’re in the top tier of NBA fans, that’s a given. So, there’s a more-than-decent chance that you’ve heard the phrase “regression to the mean.”

I’m about to show you numbers that will re-inflate your currently depressurizing fanhood, I promise. But first, there’s a quibble to be had with that phrase, and I have that quibble.

Regression vs Aggression

The phrase should actually be “regression toward the mean.” Here’s an example:

My car was stolen recently, and the detective told me “They were last seen driving toward Tacoma.” For reference, Tacoma to the South of where I live, Seattle.”Toward” Tacoma could mean a lot of things, though. The car was driving South. It could wind up in Tacoma, California, or even Antarctica. Who knows?

If he had said “to Tacoma,” though… that would have been a different story.

See, “to” and “toward” mean different things. “To” means there’s a target – a destination. That’s how the phrase “Regression to the mean” is used in sports, fairly regularly. A 50 percent shooter shot 9-10? Expect him to shoot 1-10 soon. Regression targeting his average!

Except no, his stats won’t regress to the mean, they’ll regress toward the mean. A 50 percent shooter should shoot 50 percent, regardless of what they did the night before.

The Thunder are 64.3 percent from the line (last) and 24.1 percent from the three point line (last by a lot). Last year, OKC managed 35.4 percent and 71.6 percent. Should we expect them to bounce back to to 47 percent from three and 78.9 from the line?

Of course not. We should expect their averages. The good news is, Thunder players have been nowhere near their averages this season.

We can’t expect the math to save us, but the math predicts that we don’t actually need saving.