OKC Thunder: the shots will fall – the math guarantees it
First, free throws
Let’s talk about free throws first, because that’s simplest and, frankly, most maddening issue facing this OKC Thunder team.
As stated before, the Thunder are shooting an infuriating 64.3 percent from the free throw line this year (They’re supposed to be FREE!). There are only two players on the team this season shooting above their NBA averages for the last three seasons, Dennis Schröder and Ray Felton.
Felton’s numbers actually provide an opportunity to demonstrate the point of this experiment. RayRay’s average over the last three years from the line is 82.7 percent. He’s shooting 85.7 percent this season. Wow! What an achievement! And he’s a career 78.9 percent shooter, so he’s really lighting it up.
Except wait. He’s only taken seven attempts. He’s six for seven. Miss one more, and he’s at 71.4 percent. Sample size, along with regression toward the mean, are why Thunder fans have reason to be encouraged.
You see all that red in the 2019 column? Those are players shooting below their averages from the last three years. See all that green in the Points Differential column? Those are points that the Thunder should have had in these first four games.
Those are phantom points, points that are no one’s fault, points that just failed to show up because the Thunder just happened to twist their wrist the wrong way, or maybe there was a breeze in the stadium, or maybe that lady who yells “RUSSEEEEEEEEELL” every time he’s at the line finally distracted him. Those are points the offense earned, that bad luck stole away, and they’re points that regression toward the mean will bring us soon.
Russ is the main culprit here, having gone 8-16 on the season. He’s left 4.9 points on the table this season in two games. He’ll get better. He promised.
Russell Westbrook on the Thunder’s poor fourth quarter: “That’s on me.” pic.twitter.com/q4oTwPwZzu
— Royce Young (@royceyoung) October 26, 2018
Open threes
Here’s where it gets good.
The goal of this is not to defend or support the Thunder’s offense. I provided the statistics on open three-point attempts only to get out in front of someone who would argue “What if they’re missing open looks because they’re more rare, more unexpected,” and to show that that counter-argument doesn’t hold a lick of water.
So, through the OKC Thunder’s first four games, they’ve succeeded in generating open shots, we know that. Yet, somehow, they’re ranked 28th in the league in points per game (gasp). Yes, 28th. That’s worse than Orlando, Cleveland, Phoenix, and 24 other teams. Apologies to the fan bases of those teams, but OKC does not belong with them.
OKC has Russell Westbrook and Paul George. Being a bottom-dweller doesn’t sit well with our expectations.
Now, the Thunder haven’t been an elite shooting team – or even a good one – since they lost that one guy in free agency. But they’re better than this, and they are actually generating open threes for the few guys on the roster who CAN shoot. They just aren’t making them.
Again, red in 2019, green in expected points. The thing to focus on here, though, is the point differential on three-point attempts with the closest defender six-or-more feet away. Those are shots that are literally described as “Wide Open” by nba.com.
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Just look at those red numbers. My goodness. Schröder – 15 percent, Grant – 17 percent, Patterson – 10, Westbrook – ZERO. Zero??
The Thunder have misplaced 31.9 points this season only on “Wide Open” threes. In four games. Break out your calculators, that’s eight points per game. Again, wide open.
Russell Westbrook will not shoot zero percent on wide open threes this season. This I promise you. Paul George’s 35.7 percent is actually decent, but it’s over nine percent lower than it should be! And Patrick Patterson… Don’t even get me started on Patrick Patterson.
(Shout out to Alex Abrines, the only man in OKC hitting threes these days. #StartTheSpaniard)
Between open threes and free throws, you may have been able to put the numbers together, but in case you didn’t, or even if you did, I’m going to put them together for you, because I’m just so excited about them.